standard deviation

[mjbballar23]

if im not mistaken, the standard deviation on one hand of blackjack is 1.1*average bet. what then is the standard deviation when playing 2 or even 3 hands at a high count? any help with std. deviation and spreading to multiple hands would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Guynoire]

wizardofodds.com adresses this question, but only at neutral count.

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix4.html

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

how do i figure out my 'win rate per 100 hands' and 'standard deviation per 100 hands'? not sure what is needed, but here is some info.. i play only in positive run counts, i use hi-lo with 13 indexes (all the positive ones from ill18), and i flat bet, which puts my advantage at ~.3%

 

[mjbballar23]

std dev

assuming you flat bet $10 and your advantage is .3%, you expected win per 100 hands is 10*100*.003 = $3. your std. deviation assuming you only play one hand is 10*1.1*sqr. root(100) = +/-$110.

 

[boneuphtoner]

how do i figure out my 'win rate per 100 hands' and 'standard deviation per 100 hands'? not sure what is needed, but here is some info.. i play only in positive run counts, i use hi-lo with 13 indexes (all the positive ones from ill18), and i flat bet

I input this exact information into CVCX with the HiLo Sweet 16 indices. Including the flat betting ($25 per hand). Playing at +2 TC or better, your win rate per 100 hands is $7.19 and your SD per 100 hands is $117.58. Playing at +1 TC and higher, the same figures are $8.46 and $151.71.

 

[Sonny]

what then is the standard deviation when playing 2 or even 3 hands at a high count?

Your SD rises by about 0.5 for each hand you play. Here is a link on calculating the SD and optimal bet for multiple hands:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=16488

You can find a few more good threads about playing multiple hands using the search function for this forum.

-Sonny-

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

assuming you flat bet $10 and your advantage is .3%, you expected win per 100 hands is 10*100*.003 = $3. your std. deviation assuming you only play one hand is 10*1.1*sqr. root(100) = +/-$110.

I input this exact information into CVCX with the HiLo Sweet 16 indices. Including the flat betting ($25 per hand). Playing at +2 TC or better, your win rate per 100 hands is $7.19 and your SD per 100 hands is $117.58. Playing at +1 TC and higher, the same figures are $8.46 and $151.71.

i play at +1 RC, so this complicates things, as i cant find any stats on RCs, such as frequency of each count, and your advantage, because they only do it at TCs

 

[Sonny]

i play at +1 RC, so this complicates things, as i cant find any stats on RCs, such as frequency of each count, and your advantage, because they only do it at TCs

You can find that here:

(Dead link: http://www.bjstats.com/bjsc.asp)

Use the table for "Running Count Won/Lost"

-Sonny-

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

according to cvdata (i have the demo, but RoR works fine i think), it says i have a 44% RoR with a 3 per 100 win rate, a 121 per 100 deviation, and a $2000 bankroll.. but is this really accurate? doesnt how you spread matter? and also what about wonging? or do those not matter, and are already figured into the equation with your win rate and deviation? im thinking of buying cvdata, as its probably the best thing im looking for, which is calculating all sorts of win rates and such based on specifically how i play

 

[Sonny]

…it says i have a 44% RoR with a 3 per 100 win rate, a 121 per 100 deviation, and a $2000 bankroll.. but is this really accurate?

I think those numbers are a little off. A 3% win rate and 121 unit SD sound unreasonable to me. An average win rate might be around 1-1.5% while an average SD/100 should be closer to 30-40 units. A SD of 121 units sounds way off.

doesnt how you spread matter?

Yes. Using a different bet spread will change your EV and SD, which will directly affect your RoR.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

Your SD rises by about 0.5 for each hand you play. Here is a link on calculating the SD and optimal bet for multiple hands:-

I guess this has been bothering me for a while.

I didn't look at the link or anything but I just don't see it, if I understand it right.

Like 1.16 for one hand, 1.35 for 2 hands, 1.52 for 3 hands diminishing after that.

Hardly 1.16, 1.66, 2.16 etc.

Straighten me out - I'm sure I'm missing something.