Statistical Edge Yes or No?

R

rhode80

New Member
Not sure who out there is good with stats but is it true or not that the player has a statistical edge if they get 19, 20, or 21 on the first two cards and thats basically it?

does every other hand total favor the house ?

why do I say this? well 17, & 18 for player are statistically losing hands arent they?

9, 10 & 11 are you favored to win on ALL hands or just when dealer has 4, 5, 6, facing up?

-odds of getting 19 or better on 9 is 38% and on 10 or 11 its 46%

I realize the player can be favored in some hands, but the player becomes favored only AFTER the dealer flips over hole card and has 12-16 as a total!

So when a player doesn't hit and assumes or hopes the dealer has both a certain card in the hole or will draw a certain card to bust

doesn't this make the player at a statistical disadvantage on ALL hands player does not draw a card and hopes the dealer busts?
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
I think most of your questions would be answered by looking at an EV table (Archive copy). Or at least that should narrow your range of questions. :)
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What Canceler said.


You're always ahead with a 19-21, 11 and a pair of aces. I believe you're always ahead with ten, but maybe not vs. an ace.

18 is ahead vs. 2-7, and 17 can be ahead vs. 6, depending on the rules.
 
C

Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
You are always ahead when you have 19-21 no matter what the dealer is showing. Is it possible that you could lose or tie with those hands yes but you will win more than lose with those hands.
If you have 12-17 you are way behind no matter what the dealer has even if he has a 5 or a 6.
If you have an 18 against all upcards combined you are a slight under dog. If the upcard is a 7 you are a huge favorite. If it is 9-Ace you are a big dog.
 
nottooshabby

nottooshabby

Well-Known Member
moo321 said:
What Canceler said.


You're always ahead with a 19-21, 11 and a pair of aces. I believe you're always ahead with ten, but maybe not vs. an ace.

18 is ahead vs. 2-7, and 17 can be ahead vs. 6, depending on the rules.
Click to expand...
18 vs 8 up is also a 6 to 5 favorite.
 
F

Frankie

Well-Known Member
Cardcounter said:
You are always ahead when you have 19-21 no matter what the dealer is showing. Is it possible that you could lose or tie with those hands yes but you will win more than lose with those hands.
If you have 12-17 you are way behind no matter what the dealer has even if he has a 5 or a 6.
If you have an 18 against all upcards combined you are a slight under dog. If the upcard is a 7 you are a huge favorite. If it is 9-Ace you are a big dog.
Click to expand...
A ton of bad info in here. You are not always ahead with 19 if the dealer hasn't checked for BJ.

17 vs. 5 or 6 is not "way behind" -- you are usually a tiny underdog or tiny favorite depending on # of decks, rules, etc.

And I wouldn't call 18 vs. A a "big dog" at all -- very small underdog.
 
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