Stricttly DD

R

RyguyRocky

New Member
Hey guys.

I play strictly DD $5 min, DOA, DAS. Penetration is very good where I play. 60-75%. Last time I played there the dealer RAN OUT OF CARDS! There was 4 of us at the table and he cuts so deep he runs out of cards. He's like SH#! PIT! The PB comes over and all apologetic.. Like it's a bad thing! I'm sitting there with a huge grin on my face! After the last card was dealt I had the count at 1. It's a good feeling to know that he burned a ten off the top while the ploppies are all looking at each other wondering what's going on!

But I digress....

I have a very conservative spread. I fear that I'm not taking full advantage of good counts.

Here is what I am doing at the table. I would like to hear some comments/suggestions. I am a red player. :)

TC

0 - 1 unit
1 - 1 unit
2 - 2 units
3 - 3 units
4 - 4 units
5 - 5 units
6 - 6 units
7+ - 8 units

My max bet is $40 at +7 or more.
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
Conservative = losing money

You are losing a lot of money by your spread. If your objective by being conservative is to reduce swings, then I suggest not playing (or getting a day job). If your objective by being conservative is to optimize the ratio EV/SD (which means winning as much as possible per unit variance), then you should ramp up MUCH more quickly, with your max bet at +5 consisting of 8 units.

--Mayor
 
D

DSCH

Member
Bet spread

So it seems that a betting spread of the following might be good:

TC <=1 Min bet
TC = 2, 3, or 4 1/2 Max bet
TC >=5 Max bet

What do you think?
 
A

Abraham de Moivre

Well-Known Member
Non-Optimal

I think you would be overbetting on your +2 counts, and really underbetting your +4 counts.

Depatures from the optimal bet spread I posted below can only perform less effectively. Exceptions being using a larger spread, instead of the 1:8 shown, or wonging on negative counts, etc.

The advantage of your bet spread is there are only 3 jumps, (min., half/max, and max.) so this might provide some cover, instead of mechanically racheting the shown optimal spread up and down constantly.

However, I think I would work on ACT or other methods to get the optimal spread down, before hurting my EV by using less optimal betting patterns. (A pattern is a pattern, if watched long enough or close enough, eventually it will be detected.)
 
K

kRis

New Member
My DD Spread

I use 2 units per TC up to TC=4. Sometimes I go higher but you have to consider bankroll. I base this spread on highly effective computer simulations and analysis. I also mix it up to avoid a pattern and employ some cover betting such as letting max bets ride to the next shoe if the pit is watching or if they recently made a call to surveillance. For red chipping you don't have to worry about all that too much.

Good Luck,
kRis
 
R

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
I Used to Use

the running count in red using Hi Opt II, which was conservative even then, but very easy to do. My spread would often get into the high teens this way. Cover was using the Martingale at times in red. You can often make your next bet look like a double up, or a reverse Marty after that, all within the parameters of the count. It looks like a dogs breakfast to anyone watching, but its still fulla meat n gravy.
 
R

RyguyRocky

New Member
Wow

thanks for all the great responses!

I see where I am going wrong... I was under the impression that a good spread for me would be 1 unit per TC. (BTW Mayor I do have a day job) :)
I am not getting the $$ out fast enough.

I have adjusted my spread accordingly and will begin using either

AdM's

+0 -- 1 unit
+1 -- 2 unit
+2 -- 3 unit
+3 -- 5 unit
+4 -- 7 unit
+5 -- 8 unit

or kRis's

+0 -- 1 unit
+1 -- 2 unit
+2 -- 4 unit
+3 -- 6 unit
+4 -- 8 unit
 
A

Abraham de Moivre

Well-Known Member
Reason for my spread.

+0 -- 1 unit
+1 -- 2 unit
+2 -- 3 unit
+3 -- 5 unit
+4 -- 7 unit
+5 -- 8 unit

If you study the actual true edge at certain true counts in typical double deck games, there is very little difference between a +1 and +2 count (yes, there is increased edge, but in percentage terms, not that great).

But there is a big jump in advantage between a +2 and a +3 count, hence the bigger increase in bet:
(+1 -- 2 unit to +2 -- 3 unit = 50% increase,
+2 -- 3 unit to +3 -- 5 unit = 66% increase)
This is probably due to some double down indexes kicking in.

+4 count and +5 count, the advantage increases some, but not much in percentage terms. Probably because whatever deviations you are doing to basic strategy at +4, you are pretty much also doing at +5.

And that is why it also doesn't make much difference what you do at even higher counts. First, higher than +6 counts are rare, and there really isn't much more advantage at +8 than +9, for example. Yes, there is some increase, but not enough to significently increase the percentage of your bankroll you are putting on the table.
 
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