Super Plus Counts

[aslan]

When the count gets to, say, Plus 20, and you are winning most hands, is it ever wise to change your game plan? For example, if you have been betting 10X, is it wise to increase to 15X just because things are going so well? I've heard that a high plus count doesn't mean you will win any more hands, just more double downs and splits. Also I believe blackjacks are more likely. Do I chance losing my advantage by betting higher than my game plan, or is this a way to maximize profits? Your knowledge and experience would be appreciated.

 

[sagefr0g]

When the count gets to, say, Plus 20, and you are winning most hands, is it ever wise to change your game plan? For example, if you have been betting 10X, is it wise to increase to 15X just because things are going so well? I've heard that a high plus count doesn't mean you will win any more hands, just more double downs and splits. Also I believe blackjacks are more likely. Do I chance losing my advantage by betting higher than my game plan, or is this a way to maximize profits? Your knowledge and experience would be appreciated.

you don't want to bet higher than your game plan in super high counts. as you alluded one doesn't always win more often in such counts. your gameplan should work in concert so to speak so as to make your overall play sucessful.
you are supposed to get more blackjacks, sucessful double downs and splits when the count is high. i'm curious as to just how this does work. does anyone know of any studies that show at what true count one can expect more double downs to present and what card compositions are most advantageous?

 

[ColorMeUp]

you are supposed to get more blackjacks, sucessful double downs and splits when the count is high. i'm curious as to just how this does work. does anyone know of any studies that show at what true count one can expect more double downs to present and what card compositions are most advantageous?

I could be wrong here but I think that it might not necessarily be that more double downs opportunities occur, just that you are more likely to win them when the count is high. When you double down most of the time you are looking for a face card, and since there is a larger proportion of face cards in the shoe during a high count, its more likely you will get one and have a successful double. Furthermore, if the dealer is showing a bust card, its more likely that he's got a 10 underneath and another coming.

 

[EasyRhino]

There are two different answers to this question and both are "no".

1) On the purely theoretical side, I've seen it mentiond that isanely-high plus counts don't have the advantage increase proportionately as when the counts increase in more normal ranges. In other words, +10 isn't twice as good as +5. This was mentioned briefly in Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack, but I think the original reference was to Griffin's Theory of Blackjack (which I've only just begun working through).

For an extreme example, try grabbing a few decks of cards, and take out everything except for aces and tens, and mock play through a few rounds. The results are strange.

2) On a practical side, you need to look out after your bankroll. Let's say you're betting aggressively, and your bet rougly is full-Kelly. Say at a TC of +4, it's 1.5% of your bankroll. If the TC rises to +8, and you were to bet 3% of your bankroll, it could bring on too much variance for you (emotionally), or it could bring too much attention from the casino, or you might bump into the table max, or it might just be more than you have in your wallet.

I saw an argument from somewhere on the internerds that some of the ex-MIT guys argue having "no max bet" on their system. However, they are betting a much smaller fraction of their bankroll each hand, and the truly absurd counts rarely if ever come into play.

 

[Mimosine]

from a very small sample of extreme high count shoes (TC +8) or more that i've played my results have been mixed. in some cases the faces never materialized, in others i could do no wrong and won every hand, and in others i lost hand over fist as every one else at the table was being dealt 20s. all of these are in the realm of possible expectation.

personally, my BR can't even handle my current max bet (~2-3% of total BR), so the temptation for me to push it higher in a extreme + count doesn't exist.

 

[aslan]

After hearing all this, it seems to me that it would be advantageous to bet higher IF your bankroll can stand it. Since we all agree that the advantage has switched to the player, I think a good strategy would be to both increase the bet (I can't figure how much at this point) AND increase the number of hands being played, if this is a possibility. The latter seems to make sense because of what Mimosine said about sometimes everybody else seems to be benefitting by the good count except him. In this way, you should have a better chance of benefitting by the high count advantage.

As an aside, last week I was playing two hands in a high count and actually got a backjack on each at the same time. I know that doesn't happen much, but we do know htat blackjacks are more probable in high counts.

I wonder why one would win more splits in high counts? For example, if you split threes (gulp) you might well end up with two 23's. On the other hand, if you split eights, you'd have two reasonable hands as well as a strong possibility the dealer would bust if he had to hit. I'm just speculating. I know the experts on this forum know the answer to this question. I hope they chime in.

 

[moo321]

After hearing all this, it seems to me that it would be advantageous to bet higher IF your bankroll can stand it. Since we all agree that the advantage has switched to the player, I think a good strategy would be to both increase the bet (I can't figure how much at this point) AND increase the number of hands being played, if this is a possibility. The latter seems to make sense because of what Mimosine said about sometimes everybody else seems to be benefitting by the good count except him. In this way, you should have a better chance of benefitting by the high count advantage.

As an aside, last week I was playing two hands in a high count and actually got a backjack on each at the same time. I know that doesn't happen much, but we do know htat blackjacks are more probable in high counts.

I wonder why one would win more splits in high counts? For example, if you split threes (gulp) you might well end up with two 23's. On the other hand, if you split eights, you'd have two reasonable hands as well as a strong possibility the dealer would bust if he had to hit. I'm just speculating. I know the experts on this forum know the answer to this question. I hope they chime in.

Well, if you look at a lot of your splits, they are helped by high cards. Aces and eights (your most common splits) are both generally helped by high cards (although a 3 is best on an 8). Sevens and nines (your next most common splits) are helped as well. So the majority of your splits are helped by the high cards.

Your other splits (6's, 4's, 3's, 2's) are only split versus low cards, and are often helped by catching middies (7-9's), so you can double on them. Even if you do catch a ten, you know that the dealer has a higher chance of busting.

 

[aslan]

Well, if you look at a lot of your splits, they are helped by high cards. Aces and eights (your most common splits) are both generally helped by high cards (although a 3 is best on an 8). Sevens and nines (your next most common splits) are helped as well. So the majority of your splits are helped by the high cards.

Your other splits (6's, 4's, 3's, 2's) are only split versus low cards, and are often helped by catching middies (7-9's), so you can double on them. Even if you do catch a ten, you know that the dealer has a higher chance of busting.

That's logical.