Survivorship Bias

[SleightOfHand]

When I mean succeed, I mean to have played correctly (making minimal mistakes) in the conditions at the casino (including heat) for a long enough period of time to overcome standard deviation. 1%?

 

[kewljason]

My vote was less than 1%. Just for the record, after re-reading the question, I feel the correct response is 1-5%. Apparently you can't change your vote. My bad.

 

[shadroch]

If you mean what percent of people who read an article or a book and think BJ is an easy way to make money,i'd say less than 1%.
If you mean people who actually put in the time and effort, I'd go 5-20%.
If you are referring to the people who post here, I'd say 1-5%.

 

[kewljason]

If you mean what percent of people who read an article or a book and think BJ is an easy way to make money,i'd say less than 1%.
If you mean people who actually put in the time and effort, I'd go 5-20%.
If you are referring to the people who post here, I'd say 1-5%.

come on shad, can't you come up with senario's for the other two answers, so you have all the bases covered. :laugh: I'm just kidding. The question was a bit confusing, which is why I initially answered differently.

 

[StandardDeviant]

When I mean succeed, I mean to have played correctly (making minimal mistakes) in the conditions at the casino (including heat) for a long enough period of time to overcome standard deviation. 1%?

What's N0 for the average game, around 40K hands, give or take? At 100 hands per hour, that's several years of play for the average non-professional player.

So all we have to do is look at people who joined this forum prior to, say, 2006.

 

[SleightOfHand]

What's N0 for the average game, around 40K hands, give or take? At 100 hands per hour, that's several years of play for the average non-professional player.

So all we have to do is look at people who joined this forum prior to, say, 2006.

40k? What kind of games are you playing? The games I have been playing are 20k max. Some easily around 10k.

 

[Pro21]

I think the number of people who are successful at card counting and shuffle tracking is very low, less than 1%.

I think the percentage for people who try other forms of advantage play is much higher. The reasons for this are many: far fewer people attempt these other forms, the edge is much higher, usually they get into it because they know someone who is successful at it rather than reading it in some book, many of these people are already successful as card counters so they are used to what it takes and have some casino savvy.

(BTW - this is based on your definition of "successful".)

 

[StandardDeviant]

40k? What kind of games are you playing? The games I have been playing are 20k max. Some easily around 10k.

I should be asking you where you are playing. :grin:

 

[SleightOfHand]

I should be asking you where you are playing. :grin:

Same general place you are

 

[StandardDeviant]

I'd love to know how you get to 10K.

According to CVCX, 6D S17 DAS Sr RSA with 4.25 decks pen and a 1:12 spread has a N0 of ~33K. (Hi-Lo Sweet 16 + Fab 4).

Pen would have to increase to 5.5 decks of 6 to reach N0 of ~10K. Increasing bet spread seemed to improve things up to a point, but I couldn't reach 10K.

 

[SleightOfHand]

I'd love to know how you get to 10K.

According to CVCX, 6D S17 DAS Sr RSA with 4.25 decks pen and a 1:12 spread has a N0 of ~33K. (Hi-Lo Sweet 16 + Fab 4).

Pen would have to increase to 5.5 decks of 6 to reach N0 of ~10K. Increasing bet spread seemed to improve things up to a point, but I couldn't reach 10K.

well, to start, thats some ugly pen. Foxwoods in CT is standard 6.5/8 S17 DAS LS. However, you can easily find dealers cutting 1-1.25 off. Even found a few that cut <1. Another great thing about FW is that you are allowed to play 2 hands of table min. No 2 x min requirement most casinos have. Then, included wonging with a strong spread (which is easily tolerated at FW) you can get in the 15k range. My strategy, I play zen with about 60 indeces, wong out at -2 and spread 2x1-2x10 units (often dropping to 1 hand of 1 unit in negative counts) gives me an N0 of 13.5k with 6.75/8 pen. The 10k I was talking about was actually not east coast

PS: You can also use the same strategy in the 6 decker you mention to get good N0. Be aggressive and you wont regret it (unless you get caught) :grin:

 

[StandardDeviant]

well, to start, thats some ugly pen. Foxwoods in CT is standard 6.5/8 S17 DAS LS. However, you can easily find dealers cutting 1-1.25 off. Even found a few that cut <1. Another great thing about FW is that you are allowed to play 2 hands of table min. No 2 x min requirement most casinos have. Then, included wonging with a strong spread (which is easily tolerated at FW) you can get in the 15k range. My strategy, I play zen with about 60 indeces, wong out at -2 and spread 2x1-2x10 units (often dropping to 1 hand of 1 unit in negative counts) gives me an N0 of 13.5k with 6.75/8 pen. The 10k I was talking about was actually not east coast

PS: You can also use the same strategy in the 6 decker you mention to get good N0. Be aggressive and you wont regret it (unless you get caught) :grin:

Thanks for taking time for the detailed answer. I'll have to look for those dealers that cut <1 the next time I'm there. I usually see 1.25-1.5 at Foxwoods and 1.25-2 (of 6) and MoSun.

 

[shiznites]

I usually see 1.25-1.5 at Foxwoods and 1.25-2 (of 6) and MoSun.

O man, this guy at MGM (at FW) was cutting off less than a deck and dealing at ridiculously fast speeds - !