cardcounter0
Well-Known Member
Sometimes low limit games break out into what I call “on/off” games. One hand the entire table limps in, the next hand it is folded around and the blinds chop. Or 6 or 7 players go crazy and it is capped 6-ways preflop, and then on the next hand, folded around to the button, who raises and steals the blinds. On/Off.
Makes it kind of hard for hand selection. Suited connectors in mid position after a limper, they might be nice to play at a weak/passive, everyone else limps in to see the flop table, but if the wind suddenly changes direction and you find yourself getting raised and then re-raised by the tightest player at the table -- not so nice. Are you going to get 9 limpers, or is it going to fold around, and you are heads-up facing a cut-off raise? Tough choices.
Here is a situation that you can think about. You are in the Big Blind, the first player to act preflop raises. He proceeds to get his raise called by the next 5 players. A couple of folds, the small blind folds, and with the action on you, you look at your cards. 9 of Spades, and 5 of Hearts. Good ol' 95o. So do you call the raise?
Your choices:
A) Get up and leave immediately. With so many players seeing every flop, playing any two, and calling anything with anything, even AA gets cracked the majority of the time. This game cannot be beat. Besides, you had to tip the valet $2 to park your car, there is no way you can come out ahead.
B) Fold. Wait for a really good hand and then punish these limping calling stations, when you finally enter the pot with a raise.
C) Call. It is possible for any two cards to win. Maybe that miracle flop will come and 95o will be the best hand.
D) Re-Raise. It will be fun to bluff that huge pot away from 6 players.
Most situations in poker the answer is "it depends", but in this case I think there is a correct answer that can be shown mathematically.
The answer is (C) - Call the raise, and pray for the miracle flop.
Usually, in a UTG raise and multiple caller situation like this, you are up against a big pocket pair, and you have AK or AQ calling, and out of 6 players somebody is overplaying JTs, and a couple of random hands. It is going to take at least two pair at a minimum to take this pot down. So given you need to flop at least two pair or better to stay in the hand:
.0204 Two pair (using both of your pocket cards) - 49/1
.0137 Trips (using one of your pocket cards) - 73/1
.0009 Full house (using both of your pocket cards) - 1087/1
.0001 Quads (using one of your pocket cards) - 9799/1
=====
.0351 - chances of getting two pair or better and continue with hand.
Now sometimes, your two pair is going to get beat with top set, or gets beat on the river by a bigger two pair, straight, flush, etc. But for simplicity let's say the times you continue and get beat balances out with the times AA cannot lay down, or you get raised and re-raised after flopping the nuts.
There are 6 players in for 2 small bets, the small blind has folded for half a bet, your big blind is already in. You are getting 13.5 to 1 to call the raise. So basically that .0351 number means out of 100 times for this situation, 97 times you are going to call the raise, see the flop, and fold. 3 times you hit the flop hard and are going to win a pot (let's throw the .0051 from your .0351 chances of hitting away to add some more padding to the times you hit the flop but still fold later in the hand, and just call it .03).
Let's do some math (although this is kind of like playing "what if" to determine basic strategy) $2/$4 No Fold ‘Em Hold ‘Em Donkey low limit:
97 folds x $4 call of the raise = -$388 down the drain.
3 times you hit a flop with 2 pair or better. You naturally check. UTG raiser bets, the 5 callers do what they do and call (no one folding with that large of a pot for just another $4). You pull the check raise. One guy decides to fold. The Turn, you bet, another folder. The River, you bet, two more folds.
preflop (6 callers + SB) = $25
flop (5 callers of the check raise, 1 limper folds) = $22
turn (4 callers of $4, 1 fold) = $16
river (2 callers, 2 folds) = $8
=====
$71 - $4 rake - $1 dealer toke = $66 profit.
3 x $66 = $198 - $388 for the 97 folds when you miss = -$190 loss playing "how can you call with that crap" 9 of Spades, and 5 of Hearts.
So as you can see, calling with any two unsuited in this situation results in a loss of $190 per 100 hands – so calling with any two is obviously the thing to do.
Makes it kind of hard for hand selection. Suited connectors in mid position after a limper, they might be nice to play at a weak/passive, everyone else limps in to see the flop table, but if the wind suddenly changes direction and you find yourself getting raised and then re-raised by the tightest player at the table -- not so nice. Are you going to get 9 limpers, or is it going to fold around, and you are heads-up facing a cut-off raise? Tough choices.
Here is a situation that you can think about. You are in the Big Blind, the first player to act preflop raises. He proceeds to get his raise called by the next 5 players. A couple of folds, the small blind folds, and with the action on you, you look at your cards. 9 of Spades, and 5 of Hearts. Good ol' 95o. So do you call the raise?
Your choices:
A) Get up and leave immediately. With so many players seeing every flop, playing any two, and calling anything with anything, even AA gets cracked the majority of the time. This game cannot be beat. Besides, you had to tip the valet $2 to park your car, there is no way you can come out ahead.
B) Fold. Wait for a really good hand and then punish these limping calling stations, when you finally enter the pot with a raise.
C) Call. It is possible for any two cards to win. Maybe that miracle flop will come and 95o will be the best hand.
D) Re-Raise. It will be fun to bluff that huge pot away from 6 players.
Most situations in poker the answer is "it depends", but in this case I think there is a correct answer that can be shown mathematically.
The answer is (C) - Call the raise, and pray for the miracle flop.
Usually, in a UTG raise and multiple caller situation like this, you are up against a big pocket pair, and you have AK or AQ calling, and out of 6 players somebody is overplaying JTs, and a couple of random hands. It is going to take at least two pair at a minimum to take this pot down. So given you need to flop at least two pair or better to stay in the hand:
.0204 Two pair (using both of your pocket cards) - 49/1
.0137 Trips (using one of your pocket cards) - 73/1
.0009 Full house (using both of your pocket cards) - 1087/1
.0001 Quads (using one of your pocket cards) - 9799/1
=====
.0351 - chances of getting two pair or better and continue with hand.
Now sometimes, your two pair is going to get beat with top set, or gets beat on the river by a bigger two pair, straight, flush, etc. But for simplicity let's say the times you continue and get beat balances out with the times AA cannot lay down, or you get raised and re-raised after flopping the nuts.
There are 6 players in for 2 small bets, the small blind has folded for half a bet, your big blind is already in. You are getting 13.5 to 1 to call the raise. So basically that .0351 number means out of 100 times for this situation, 97 times you are going to call the raise, see the flop, and fold. 3 times you hit the flop hard and are going to win a pot (let's throw the .0051 from your .0351 chances of hitting away to add some more padding to the times you hit the flop but still fold later in the hand, and just call it .03).
Let's do some math (although this is kind of like playing "what if" to determine basic strategy) $2/$4 No Fold ‘Em Hold ‘Em Donkey low limit:
97 folds x $4 call of the raise = -$388 down the drain.
3 times you hit a flop with 2 pair or better. You naturally check. UTG raiser bets, the 5 callers do what they do and call (no one folding with that large of a pot for just another $4). You pull the check raise. One guy decides to fold. The Turn, you bet, another folder. The River, you bet, two more folds.
preflop (6 callers + SB) = $25
flop (5 callers of the check raise, 1 limper folds) = $22
turn (4 callers of $4, 1 fold) = $16
river (2 callers, 2 folds) = $8
=====
$71 - $4 rake - $1 dealer toke = $66 profit.
3 x $66 = $198 - $388 for the 97 folds when you miss = -$190 loss playing "how can you call with that crap" 9 of Spades, and 5 of Hearts.
So as you can see, calling with any two unsuited in this situation results in a loss of $190 per 100 hands – so calling with any two is obviously the thing to do.