The effect of penetration on EV

[Claza]

The Casinos in La Center, WA offer 6 deck games with Hit Soft 17, Split up to 4 hands, Resplit Aces, Double after split, Double on any first 2 cards, Double for less, Peek under Ace and 10, ASM shuffle, Lucky Ladies sidebet, Mid-shoe entry-OK.

Chip's and Palace Casinos do not allow surrender, but they have excellent typical penetration: they cut out only 1/2 deck, 5.5/6=92% penetration!

The Last Frontier and The New Phoenix casinos do allow for late surrender but they typically cut a whole deck out of play: 5/6=83% is still great penetration.

At http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-odds-calculator.htm house edge is estimated at 0.448% with late surrender, and at 0.543% without.

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/house-edge-calculator.html gives 0.459534% to the house with late surrender, 0.54775% without.

The Basic Strategy Engine on this site thinks the house edge is 0.58% with late surrender, and 0.66% without.

None of these sites will allow me to enter a value for penetration. I have no idea what penetration they assume, but what do you think is better:

• -.45% EV with 83% penetration, or -.54% EV with 92% penetration?
• -.46% EV with 83% penetration, or -.55% EV with 92% penetration?
• -.58% EV with 83% penetration, or -.66% EV with 92% penetration?

I use CV Blackjack V4.1.31 to practice, but I don't seem to be able to find an option where it would calculate EV adjusted for penetration, or the EV based upon what I selected in "Options/Settings".

 

[Renzey]

Claza -- Penetration doesn't affect EV for a basic strategy player.

 

[Claza]

Claza -- Penetration doesn't affect EV for a basic strategy player.

I forgot those calculators assume Basic Strategy only.

I however, use High-Low + IL.18 count in a game where BS players have a negative EV of .54%.
I also use the surrender indexes when late surrender is available, in a game BS players have a negative EV of .45%.

The question remains: How much extra penetration would make up for the lack of a surrender option?

Also, are there any guidelines on how a counter's EV is adjusted for penetration?

 

[mdlbj]

The high limit tables at the Tulalip offer early surrender.

 

[sagefr0g]

I forgot those calculators assume Basic Strategy only.

I however, use High-Low + IL.18 count in a game where BS players have a negative EV of .54%.
I also use the surrender indexes when late surrender is available, in a game BS players have a negative EV of .45%.

The question remains: How much extra penetration would make up for the lack of a surrender option?

Also, are there any guidelines on how a counter's EV is adjusted for penetration?

here is an example of how you can determine such factors with cvcx:

edit: please note that this graph was generated using specific parameters that are not indicated. it is just meant to show how the penetration effect can be charted.

 

[rogue1]

Ian Andersen

Claza-
Ian Andersen in Burning The Tables In Las Vegas makes it EXTREMELY clear that penetration is more important than most anything,in fact more important than several player friendly rules COMBINED!
Please let me know where I can find a casino with favorable rules where they only cut out half a deck from a six deck shoe. Thanks.

 

[bj bob]

Great Chart, Frog!...But

Although you have the win rate @ 1:10 spread, there is no mention of Unit values which could be confusing to a casual observer. I'm assuming that a great cut would produce $70/ hr. if the betting ramp went from $10-$100. Am I correct? Please advise.

 

[Claza]

Claza-
...Please let me know where I can find a casino with favorable rules where they only cut out half a deck from a six deck shoe. Thanks.

La Center, WA is about 25 miles North of Portland, OR. It is 2 miles East from exit 16 on I-5.

Here is a map to the place: http://maps.yahoo.com/maps_result?addr=318+NW+Pacific+Hwy&csz=La+Center+%2C+wa&country=us&new=1

Don't expect Vegas style flashy Casinos full with slots, craps, roulette tables. There are 4 Casinos in La Center (that I know of). Each consist of only a restaurant/bar and one big room full of Poker and Blackjack tables, (Spanish 21 and other abominations too).

Chip's and Palace Casinos offer excellent penetration (1/2 decks out typically) on 6 deck games, to make up for the fact they don't allow surrender. Their 2 deck penetration is atrocious though, because they have no local competition.

To sweeten the deal that no "Stand on soft 17" table can be found, Chip's and Palace are currently running a promotion where every week Sunday through Thursday 8 am-12 pm suited blackjacks, triple 7, and 6, 7, 8 pay 2:1.

In their infinite generosity, they even allow people with small bankrolls to lose their money. Their minimum bet is $3, $2 on Tuesdays.

Caution smokers: in Washington state it is illegal to even think about smoking unless you are like 50 feet away from the door, or something like that.

 

[Bojack1]

La Center, WA is about 25 miles North of Portland, OR. It is 2 miles East from exit 16 on I-5.

Here is a map to the place: [URL="http://www.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=318+NW+Pacific+Hwy,+La+Center+WA&ie=UTF8&z=12&om=1]Google map[/URL].

Don't expect Vegas style flashy Casinos full with slots, craps, roulette tables. There are 4 Casinos in La Center (that I know of). Each consist of only a restaurant/bar and one big room full of Poker and Blackjack tables, (Spanish 21 and other abominations too).

Chip's and Palace Casinos offer excellent penetration (1/2 decks out typically) on 6 deck games, to make up for the fact they don't allow surrender. Their 2 deck penetration is atrocious though, because they have no local competition.

To sweeten the deal that no "Stand on soft 17" table can be found, Chip's and Palace are currently running a promotion where every week Sunday through Thursday 8 am-12 pm suited blackjacks, triple 7, and 6, 7, 8 pay 2:1.

In their infinite generosity, they even allow people with small bankrolls to lose their money. Their minimum bet is $3, $2 on Tuesdays.

Caution smokers: in Washington state it is illegal to even think about smoking unless you are like 50 feet away from the door, or something like that.

What is the table max at the 6 deck games with 1/2 deck penetration, and how many tables are there?

 

[21forme]

What is the table max at the 6 deck games with 1/2 deck penetration, and how many tables are there?

I sense a roadtrip...

 

[Claza]

What is the table max at the 6 deck games with 1/2 deck penetration, and how many tables are there?

I never really paid attention to the maximum bets, since my small bankroll of $1500 prevents me from ever betting more than $50 unless splitting or doubling. I think the limits might be something like $3-100; $5-200; $10-?00; $25-500.

If you care for a guesstimate, there might be about a dozen tables total.

More tables are available across the street, but those folks usually cut out a whole deck (but offer late surrender).

All tables in La Center, WA are "Hit on Soft 17", and they all offer Lucky Ladies sidebet.

 

[rogue1]

O.K. Folks...

If you'd like to meet Bojack 1 in the near future just take exit 16 off of I-5 in southwest Washington State-I'd be surprised if he's not packing his bags at this moment and putting in a call to Semyon!

 

[sagefr0g]

Although you have the win rate @ 1:10 spread, there is no mention of Unit values which could be confusing to a casual observer. I'm assuming that a great cut would produce $70/ hr. if the betting ramp went from $10-$100. Am I correct? Please advise.

sorry i meant the chart as only illustrative not to be taken specifically for the specific game in general. there are certain parameters set for the simulator from which that particular graph was generated that may not fit the way a given player approachs that game.
i'll edit my post to hopefully make that clear.