The honeymoon may be over…

[harpomarks]

Just wanted to say “thank you” to all those that have posted their Q&As here, I’ve learned a lot about BJ from you all. I’ve been playing BJ a few times a year since the mid 70’s, just using BS. About a year ago I found myself with some extra time on my hands, the last kid left for college, and decided to try and improve my BJ game.

I read all the books on BJ I could find and learned Hi-Lo lite. I was ready to “Beat the Dealer” but in hindsight I was just half-cocked and ready to shoot myself in the foot. I remember the first time the TC was over +4 and I had my max bet out, I was using a 1-12 spread at the red chip table. I’m thinking, “Show me the money”, I am dealt a 12 and the dealer has a 10 up so I hit and, you guessed it, get a 10 and bust. Something like this happened over and over again.

After about 6 months of this torture and I will admit that at times I lost count and probably miscounted so I could have been using crap for data. When you are just using BS you are ignorant of what should happen and ignorance maybe bliss. Toward the end of the 6 months, at the end of a loosing session, I started using the Hail Mary save my ars betting strategy or lack of. I seemed to do okay when I would play through the negative shoes with minimum beat out. So I decide to stop playing for a while and work on the discipline of betting correctly and get control, emotionally, of the expectation of the win, only to loose syndrome. This feeling surprised me too because I have owned my own business for 35 years and understand ups and downs. I also read a lot of Mr. Snyder’s writings and he warns about the ups and downs all the time, he never paints a rosy picture of the game so I thought I was ready for that part. The money wasn’t the issue either, I just wanted to win…Okay the money would be nice too. On the positive side, at this point I was only 20 units down, is that a looser statement, lol. I am a little anal about keeping track of time spent, wins, losses and comps on a spreadsheet.

After a 3-month break I headed back to the casino with a new outlook. Over the last few months of playing I’ve be a few units up or down but nothing to talk about. Then last weekend I had a day when the shoes would go positive, I had my max bet out and I was getting the 20s and BJs and the dealer was busting hand after hand, I ended up about 200 units up, so I was pretty excited when I left there. Well, I played after work each night this week and fought just to stay even each session. Then last night I found that the fun was just getting sucked out of the game, the grind is starting, “The honeymoon my be over”. I’m taking a few days off because if it’s no fun why bother and it has been fun. It can’t be about the money right now because that’s only about a Big Mac an hour and all those Big Macs would make me throw up. Peace, Harpo

 

[Mimosine]

welcome aboard!

 

[ihate17]

If you are not enjoying yourself, take a break

Over the years I have made a nice amount of money playing blackjack but about 10 years ago I stopped raising my bet level when my brankroll justified it, and invested winnings elsewhere or just spent them. One reason I did this was because I honestly have fun playing blackjack, joking on the table, socializing etc and if I made my bet level higher the casino people would take everything in a more serious way, which I believe would be less fun and fewer places for me to play.
Probably it has never been mainly about the money, though like you, the money is nice. I consider myself a competitor and a game player. When I decide to compete then I have decided to cpmpete to win and do the best I can to enable myself to become a winner. Competing and keeping score are still fun to me and how I keep score in blackjack is comparing the amount of chips that I start with to the amount I leave with.

So, if you are not enjoying yourself playing blackjack quit. If you enjoy blackjack but counting is a chore that sucks the fun out of the game for you, then either quit counting or accept losses and play BS.

ihate17

ihate17

 

[EasyRhino]

You know, if you're only making a couple of big macs per hour, then you're definitely not doing it for the money. And if you're playing every day after work... what's the difference between that and real work?

(Well, I might be doing it for the money, but I just love big macs).

 

[ihate17]

Loved your movies

Harpo
Speaking for four generations of my family we always loved you and your brothers movies.
For someone like Harpo Marx, only play if you can enjoy it. Bring some joy to yourself, the dealer, pit and other players. If you can not do that now, take a break.

ihate17

 

[golfnut101]

having fun

I have to agree with 17; if it isnt fun, at all, I cant see it being worth the grind. I actually like counting, and wouldnt play if I didnt. If counting becomes a constant grind(it is at times) then Im out for good. Maybe a break ? IMHO, I know the more confident I am with my skills, the more fun it is. Its like a kid who learns a skill at a sport, vs not knowing anything at all. The kid with the skill is more likely to have fun. Like all the seasoned ap's say, practice, practice, practice.

good luck

 

[sagefr0g]

Just wanted to say “thank you” to all those that have posted their Q&As here, I’ve learned a lot about BJ from you all. I’ve been playing BJ a few times a year since the mid 70’s, just using BS. About a year ago I found myself with some extra time on my hands, the last kid left for college, and decided to try and improve my BJ game.

I read all the books on BJ I could find and learned Hi-Lo lite. I was ready to “Beat the Dealer” but in hindsight I was just half-cocked and ready to shoot myself in the foot. I remember the first time the TC was over +4 and I had my max bet out, I was using a 1-12 spread at the red chip table. I’m thinking, “Show me the money”, I am dealt a 12 and the dealer has a 10 up so I hit and, you guessed it, get a 10 and bust. Something like this happened over and over again.

After about 6 months of this torture and I will admit that at times I lost count and probably miscounted so I could have been using crap for data. When you are just using BS you are ignorant of what should happen and ignorance maybe bliss. Toward the end of the 6 months, at the end of a loosing session, I started using the Hail Mary save my ars betting strategy or lack of. I seemed to do okay when I would play through the negative shoes with minimum beat out. So I decide to stop playing for a while and work on the discipline of betting correctly and get control, emotionally, of the expectation of the win, only to loose syndrome. This feeling surprised me too because I have owned my own business for 35 years and understand ups and downs. I also read a lot of Mr. Snyder’s writings and he warns about the ups and downs all the time, he never paints a rosy picture of the game so I thought I was ready for that part. The money wasn’t the issue either, I just wanted to win…Okay the money would be nice too. On the positive side, at this point I was only 20 units down, is that a looser statement, lol. I am a little anal about keeping track of time spent, wins, losses and comps on a spreadsheet.

After a 3-month break I headed back to the casino with a new outlook. Over the last few months of playing I’ve be a few units up or down but nothing to talk about. Then last weekend I had a day when the shoes would go positive, I had my max bet out and I was getting the 20s and BJs and the dealer was busting hand after hand, I ended up about 200 units up, so I was pretty excited when I left there. Well, I played after work each night this week and fought just to stay even each session. Then last night I found that the fun was just getting sucked out of the game, the grind is starting, “The honeymoon my be over”. I’m taking a few days off because if it’s no fun why bother and it has been fun. It can’t be about the money right now because that’s only about a Big Mac an hour and all those Big Macs would make me throw up. Peace, Harpo

perhaps the tacts you are taking are preventing you from realizing your full potential. i can fully relate to everthing you've written in this post. right down to the playing after work. i did that many a day up until my retirement from work. it didn't become a grind for me until i reached what i believe was my N0 and hit a heavy duty negative fluctuation. i took a break just as others have suggested you might do. did some soul searching and some thoughtful reminicence of my past play. not being a pro and dependent upon advantage play for my livelyhood but realizing that i immensely enjoyed playing at an advantage with blackjack i decidied to put more of myself into the game while trying to maintain the essence of advantage play. still am in the process of working out my own model of what i know intellectually is advantage play. if i'm sucessful what i'll have is a playing style that i am comfortable with and that will still have me comming out winner overall.
what ever you end doing best of luck to you and hopefully you'll have some fun again with it.

 

[harpomarks]

Thank you all for the kind words of advice. I took a short vacation to Palm Springs over the weekend and I am feeling much better now. I haven’t been to Palm Springs since the early 60s. I found my favorite breakfast place was gone, Sambo’s Restaurant, I think they have been gone for a long time. I did find a great place for dinner, Melvin’s; if you’re ever in PS try it out I’m sure you’ll like it.

My plan now is to just play once a week and keep it fun. Sometimes I can get too focused on what I’m doing right now and do it until it’s over done.
Take care,
Harpo

 

[Mimosine]

My plan now is to just play once a week and keep it fun. Sometimes I can get too focused on what I’m doing right now and do it until it’s over done.
Take care,
Harpo

for me, in some ways, my limited bankroll is a good thing. with a larger BR, i would probably be playing more and thinking about the game more than i already do. and that would just be downright CRaZy!:grin:

 

[Kasi]

...right down to the playing after work. i did that many a day up until my retirement from work.

I've often wondered how things might change if I lived a 5 minute walk from 5 casinos with decent games like I was in Lake Tahoe last year. Best dam vacation I've ever had.

Compared to being in Dante's 4th circle of hell hundreds of miles from a crappy game lol and getting out 4-10 days a year.

Probably I'm lucky I'm in hell

 

[sagefr0g]

I've often wondered how things might change if I lived a 5 minute walk from 5 casinos with decent games like I was in Lake Tahoe last year. Best dam vacation I've ever had.

more and more i'm comming to see the key for a card counter and success at blackjack is the quality of the game. for what games i'm able to access that pretty much boils down to what you can turn those games into which pretty much means wonging like crazy and risking a fairly hefty spread. but those Tahoe games do sound intriquing. there i suppose the problem would be keeping from getting 86'd .

Compared to being in Dante's 4th circle of hell hundreds of miles from a crappy game lol and getting out 4-10 days a year.

Probably I'm lucky I'm in hell

well when i was working and playing after work my normal drive for a day was about two hundred miles or more. believe it or not but it wasn't unusual for me to average three or four days playing after work a week. that would be on the days i didn't work double shifts which i was doing about two or three times a week plus working most of my off days. if i didn't work an off day i was off on a couple hundred mile road trip attacking the joints i could get to.
those were some pretty crazy times for me but i was really loving the blackjack play. some how during all of this i still managed to have a social and family life and jog three miles every other day.

 

[Kasi]

more and more i'm comming to see the key for a card counter and success at blackjack is the quality of the game. for what games i'm able to access that pretty much boils down to what you can turn those games into which pretty much means wonging like crazy and risking a fairly hefty spread. but those Tahoe games do sound intriquing. there i suppose the problem would be keeping from getting 86'd .


well when i was working and playing after work my normal drive for a day was about two hundred miles or more. believe it or not but it wasn't unusual for me to average three or four days playing after work a week. that would be on the days i didn't work double shifts which i was doing about two or three times a week plus working most of my off days. if i didn't work an off day i was off on a couple hundred mile road trip attacking the joints i could get to.
those were some pretty crazy times for me but i was really loving the blackjack play. some how during all of this i still managed to have a social and family life and jog three miles every other day.

Holy crap - a 200 mile roundtrip? No wonder u needed a break lol.

I guess to me a big part of it is what your goal is - win a little? win alot? How much is enuf? Etc.

I don't know - there didn't seem to be much heat in Tahoe that I could tell.
I'd play all day on a $100 at SD & DD games. Then I'd go over to ? with a $3 table and lose it all in 20 minutes because the count was good

 

[sagefr0g]

Holy crap - a 200 mile roundtrip? No wonder u needed a break lol.

yup, and i loved every minute of those drives. relaxing on the way to the casinos from work, full of anticipation, plotting and scheming the whole way. then on the way home was most always happy as a lark cause i'd won some loot.
but anyway that all changed after i retired, moved and started playing some new slightly better joints. it was an unreal super cool situation i found myself in. unfortunately i can't go into to much detail as it might give my identity away to these joints. any way it was during this time that i hit the negative fluctuation and decided to take a breather.

I guess to me a big part of it is what your goal is - win a little? win alot? How much is enuf? Etc.

never had a clear goal as to how much i was shooting for but i would mostly quit if i got ahead by what i reckoned was one standard deviation of my hourly expectation. many a time i'd quit after just winning thirty or forty dollars and i'd be happy as a lark. not really the proper way for an advantage player to work it but that is how i went about it mainly for psychological reasons as i enjoy the lots of small wins one can realize playing it that way. then there were those dark days when i'd lose my trip bankroll. those were the dreariest drives home but thankfully those were few and far between.

I don't know - there didn't seem to be much heat in Tahoe that I could tell.
I'd play all day on a $100 at SD & DD games. Then I'd go over to ? with a $3 table and lose it all in 20 minutes because the count was good

lose it when the count is good. yep, thats usually how a bad beat works out unless it's one of those days when nothing goes right and your waiting bets end up draining away your trip bankroll. i hate those kind of days. i'd rather lose it while the EV is good than when the ev just never materializes. like the experts say it's really about getting that EV. play that good EV and the money will come.

 

[EasyRhino]

You know froggie, you think there's any chance that the game got "less fun" after you retired? I would guess that a change in scene could cause some subtle differences.

Before you were retired, you were limited in how much you could play, both by distance and available time. Sounds like you still played a lot. After retiring and moving, you have, theoretically, a lot more time to play, and closer joints available.

Before you retired, work was the major source of, well, work. Both in terms of time spent, and in terms of "earned income". After retirement, counting cards could theoretically be that.

I could guess that counting may have subtly shifted itself into your "job", perhaps from overplay, and that might be a turnoff?

Course, hitting a losing streak could do it too.

 

[sagefr0g]

You know froggie, you think there's any chance that the game got "less fun" after you retired? I would guess that a change in scene could cause some subtle differences.

yes & no. after retiring i found myself in counter's paradise really. not that the games available were all that exceptional but the whole ball of wax (so to speak) was really super cool. thats not to say that there were'nt difficulties to overcome, just that overall it was really nice. and yes the change doubtless holds a lot of subtle differances. for one i do miss those now gone days of work and blacjack play but on the other hand i realize my work schedule was really getting out of hand and that i wouldn't have been able to maintain such a pace indefinately. that said i am back working again. i call it dancing with lady lucks ugly sister to make lady luck happy. but for now working is more like playing for me as for one i don't really need to do it and after forty three years in the work a day world one thing i've learned is that most any situation that is not a total double bind can be enjoyed if you have the right mental attitude.

Before you were retired, you were limited in how much you could play, both by distance and available time. Sounds like you still played a lot. After retiring and moving, you have, theoretically, a lot more time to play, and closer joints available.

yes and now that i'm back to dancing with lady lucks ugly sister again i'm back in the same boat again so to speak.
it's nice to have that replenishable element to one's bankroll for when you do try and get a dance with lady luck.

Before you retired, work was the major source of, well, work. Both in terms of time spent, and in terms of "earned income". After retirement, counting cards could theoretically be that.

right and i considered going pro at that juncture. thing is i just don't have the nerves it takes to risk the amount of money it takes to make it as a pro. the degree of negative fluctuation a pro experiences would be more than i could handle psychologically. but not just the psychological element held me back it is also the very real possibility of losing the entire bankroll required which would be a hefty chunk of my retirement nest egg.

I could guess that counting may have subtly shifted itself into your "job", perhaps from overplay, and that might be a turnoff?

yeah i think there was an element of that going on. but it would never seem like work to me if it weren't for the negative fluctuation aspect of advantage play.

Course, hitting a losing streak could do it too.

yes that was the big bug-a-boo for me. i'm one of those people who highly value time and efficiency. i think thats the allure that gambling holds for me since it is possible to make a bundle with so little time and effort at any given time. the problem is two fold with respect to blackjack. yes one can win a bundle in a short time but if one wants another chance at winning another bundle one has to endure the risk again. that risk holds the very real possibility that you will lose the original bundle realized and even more in the process. thats where advantage play is sweet. over time you are likely to make a bundle. thing is though the time and efficiency allure takes a hit as a result and hence some of the enjoyment goes out the window. you can tinker with the time aspect of this conundrum by playing faster and more and also by increasing your bet spread. both options have their limitations and risks in the real world. the efficiency aspect can be tinkered with also and thats where i'm at for now with this 'fuzzy counting' thing. there is nothing fuzzy about orthodox counting methods. but there is the fuzzy aspect of short term results that is experienced as negative and positive fluctuation. i guess this fuzzy approach will have me experiencing some of the highs and lows that the ploppies experience that an orthodox counter would not experience and some of the highs and lows that an orthodox counter would experience. net result would likely be a lower expectation than an orthodox counter should realize in the long run. there is how ever what i believe may be a real edge shrouded in the fuzzy approach. that being the thinking and application of wisdom with respect to experience aspect which is allowed in the fuzzy approach and disallowed in the orthodox approach. thinking and experience can yield an edge in your personal life, sports, business and the investment world. why not in blackjack. well anyway for me i think this approach is gonna be more fun.
i can afford the risk in the short term as i've experienced so much luck and perhaps the fruits of a small measure of skill in the past. plus i still have the replenishible bankroll aspect going for me as a result of my continuing relationship with lady lucks ugly sister. as allways i'll be keeping an eye on the bottom line with the ole excell spread sheet and if things start going to far south i'll once again apply the brakes and go back to the drawing board.

 

[MEDITANK]

Im in the same boat with you Sage down to the very same thoughts as you. I too don't think I can stomach putting huge amounts of chips down without having a heart attack, so I put into play with what has worked for me so far. I too am happy with small wins as long as the wins outnumber the losses, I'm fine with that. $100 win days are fine with me, 2-3 times per week of that and I am a happy camper because over the course of a year, that is pretty decent side money IMO. The best of both worlds, having small wins without putting out the family jewels on the table on high plus counts is only something each individual can answer to as we are all different. Great post.

 

[Kasi]

it didn't become a grind for me until i reached what i believe was my N0 and hit a heavy duty negative fluctuation.

I seem to recall u hit the big negative fluctuation after u had increased ur roll and then increased ur bet. I was just wondering if u ever analyzed the effect of increasing your bets compared to ur increase in roll assuming u were playing the same games in the same way. Am I wrong in saying the negative flux happened after an increase in bet ramp?

It just sounds like u won as expected over many hours of play, increased ur bet and lost a bunch.

So I was just wondering to what level of analysis u went into when u increased your bet.

Do u use sims?

 

[sagefr0g]

I seem to recall u hit the big negative fluctuation after u had increased ur roll and then increased ur bet. I was just wondering if u ever analyzed the effect of increasing your bets compared to ur increase in roll assuming u were playing the same games in the same way. Am I wrong in saying the negative flux happened after an increase in bet ramp?

yes that's exactly what happened. i did go to excruciating lengths to analyze the effect of increasing my bets. my bankroll had grown to a point at which i could increase my bet spread and ramp where i ended up having a ROR of around 2.5% compared to less than 1% with my old bet spread and ramp.

It just sounds like u won as expected over many hours of play, increased ur bet and lost a bunch.

So I was just wondering to what level of analysis u went into when u increased your bet.

Do u use sims?

again yes that is what happened. as i figure it it was just the luck of the draw that i hit some significant negative fluctuation coincidentaly just at the same time that i happened to have increased my bet spread and ramp.
i used two different programs to simulate my bet spread and ramp. also used about three different approachs to verify my ROR and optimal betting.
it seemed pretty innocuous to me at first. i mean after all i was just increasing my max bet from $40 to $50. that was going from a 1:8 spread to a 1:10 spread. at first glance that doesn't seem like much but when you consider splitting and doubling down when you have your max bet out and on down the optimal bet increments it is much more of a increase in action than one might at first suspect.

 

[sagefr0g]

Im in the same boat with you Sage down to the very same thoughts as you. I too don't think I can stomach putting huge amounts of chips down without having a heart attack, so I put into play with what has worked for me so far. I too am happy with small wins as long as the wins outnumber the losses, I'm fine with that. $100 win days are fine with me, 2-3 times per week of that and I am a happy camper because over the course of a year, that is pretty decent side money IMO. The best of both worlds, having small wins without putting out the family jewels on the table on high plus counts is only something each individual can answer to as we are all different. Great post.

i think such an approach works fine as long as the bets are kept optimal and one doesn't waiver from putting the max bets out there when the time comes. one does need to have at least the minimum required spread to have a chance to succeed otherwise those waiting bets will just eat you up. also one never wants to wimp out of a positve count.

 

[Kasi]

yes that's exactly what happened. i did go to excruciating lengths to analyze the effect of increasing my bets. my bankroll had grown to a point at which i could increase my bet spread and ramp where i ended up having a ROR of around 2.5% compared to less than 1% with my old bet spread and ramp.

Wow.

I figured u were the type to be analyzing lol. Twin sons of different mothers

Such low ROR's to begin with. I assume u were betting way less than full-Kelly crap?

Somewhat mystifying on the face of it.

None of my beeswax but by what percentage had ur total roll increased?

It sounds like u took a break before losing entire roll? If so, again none of my beeswax, what % did u lose?

U ever put a # on how unlikely ur results were? Like more than 2 standard deviations or even 3?

Like u say, and I don't know, going from 1-8 to 1-10 doesn't sound like a lot but................

At some point I guess it becomes an act of faith that u r playing right and it was neg flux and not u.

Still, it can be difficult to believe u were that 1 in 5000 to experience it.

I was once down almost 4 standard deviations from expected over 10,000 hands at Intercasino. God I hated that game. I almost believed it was rigged.
But after 40000 hands I was actually 0.2 SD to the good!

U just never know in this damned game!