The Mayor's Journal

Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
Howdy Mayor. It's been a little quiet around here lately so I thought I'd get the ball rolling.

I was just killing some time and checking out your BJ journal. It almost looks like you started out on a downward slope. Is this just because of deviations, or were you still getting the hang of counting?

You also had a VERY steep plunge later in the journal. If it's not too personal, can you elaborate on how many units this was? There's no indications of scale on the graph anywhere. Also, was your unit size the same throughout the graph?

I'm just curious I guess. I'd like to hear from you and other players about your current BR standing in relation to your highest/lowest point. Good ol' Pete Griffin wrote that a person's BR will only be at its peak around 1% of the time. I'm assuming he's including both falling down from AND winning enough to create a NEW peak point.

Currently my BR is in decent shape. I started out with 20 units and built it up to 800 units playing online (back when bonus offers were much better). From there I had an 70 unit loss in Vegas (my first trip, lots of mistakes), a 60 unit loss in Laughlin (better skills, but worse games), an 80 unit win in Primm (not bad for a 1 day trip!), a 40 unit win in Reno (technically in Sparks), a total of 24 units from various trips here in California (You'll be happy to hear that some was from Chumash), and another 3 unit loss in Vegas.

I'm happy to say that I'm still showing a (small) profit even though I was off to a BAD start. How 'bout everyone else?

-Sonny-
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
>I was just killing some time and checking out your BJ journal. It almost looks like you started out on a downward slope. Is this just because of deviations, or were you still getting the hang of counting?

Just bad deviation -- honestly, it could have gone down a lot more and still had been normal. The most I was ever in the hole from the day I began the game was $1100.

>You also had a VERY steep plunge later in the journal. If it's not too personal, can you elaborate on how many units this was?

Good noticing. That was the trip from hell, plus one day from another trip -- 4 days in a row each losing over 100 units! Talk about big time sucking! I lost 40% of my BR over those 4 days. But, that is completely normal as well. About a year earlier a good friend told me he was on the trip from hell, and I hoped it would never happen to me... well, you just can't fool the deviation gods.

>There's no indications of scale on the graph anywhere. Also, was your unit size the same throughout the graph?

About midway through my unit size doubled -- you can see that result in terms of the sharper upward/downward spikes.

>I'm just curious I guess. I'd like to hear from you and other players about your current BR standing in relation to your highest/lowest point.

My current BR is about 20 units below my all time high. That's also on the graph. But it has taken a while to get back there.

>Good ol' Pete Griffin wrote that a person's BR will only be at its peak around 1% of the time. I'm assuming he's including both falling down from AND winning enough to create a NEW peak point.

All time peak means that out of every 100 hands you play, only one of them will represent a new all time high -- well, that's in the long run. Me, it feels like significantly less of my hands have been a new all time high than that.

>Currently my BR is in decent shape. I started out with 20 units and built it up to 800 units playing online (back when bonus offers were much better). From there I had an 70 unit loss in Vegas (my first trip, lots of mistakes), a 60 unit loss in Laughlin (better skills, but worse games), an 80 unit win in Primm (not bad for a 1 day trip!), a 40 unit win in Reno (technically in Sparks), a total of 24 units from various trips here in California (You'll be happy to hear that some was from Chumash), and another 3 unit loss in Vegas.

Doesn't sound like much play. Question -- how many hours total in actual casino play? My guess is somewhere between 100 and 150. At that rate, really anything can happen and none of your wins/losses reflect your actual skill level. Give it 500 hours, keep careful records, then reflect a bit.

>I'm happy to say that I'm still showing a (small) profit even though I was off to a BAD start. How 'bout everyone else?

Good going. I like it when people take money from casinos.

Cheers!

--Mayor
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
>The most I was ever in the hole from the day I began the game was $1100.

That's encouraging. I can only hope that my biggest drop will be about the same. Only time will tell.

>That was the trip from hell, plus one day from another trip -- 4 days in a row
>each losing over 100 units! Talk about big time sucking! I lost 40% of my BR
>over those 4 days.

See, now THAT'S the kind of thing that I'm preparing for but hoping not to see anytime soon! Instead of "two steps forward, one step back" it feels more like a stagerring drunkard!

>My current BR is about 20 units below my all time high. That's also on the
>graph. But it has taken a while to get back there.

With all the "ups and downs" of Blackjack, it's always nice to hear that people can actually earm money from it (in the end). As a red-chipper (dropping down to silver when I can) I often find myself ruthlessly fighting for just a few bucks. The times that I finally get the chance to throw out a few greens are usually the few hands that decide my fate.

>Doesn't sound like much play...At that rate, really anything can happen and
>none of your wins/losses reflect your actual skill level. Give it 500 hours,
>keep careful records, then reflect a bit.

Yeah, my total playing time is still under 100 hours. That's why I was curious about other people's experiences. Obviously it will be different for everyone, but I still like to hear the stories. I'd also like to know how far above/below their starting point everyone's BR is.

-Sonny-
 
S

suicyco maniac

Well-Known Member
Just a couple of weeks ago I watched my bank drop by 720 units in no time flat. (I posted some of the details on ap.com) I have since won back about 500 units. This game can have huge swings like that. It is very important to play only in good games and to be heavily bankrolled. Since you asked about long term yes I am up long term and even short term if you consider just this year to be short term I am up close to 5,000 units this year alone.
 
W

wong out

Well-Known Member
Damn:

In my experience swings of 400-500 units happen pretty often (say every 150 hours or so). Right now on a close to 200 hr hour and even; if I stretch the results back abit then right on track. You cant let the wins/losses worry or excite you. Just keep firing away at the best game and you'll get yours (assuming that you dont get broke, bored, marry rich, barred everywhere etc.)

wong out
 
W

wong out

Well-Known Member
BTW:

It is not unreasonable (although not likely) to be down after even 500 hours of play depending on the game. Play around with the random walk feature of the BJRM program and you will get the idea. A "humbling experience" as Don S would say. Last week I was putting the screws to my favorite haunt and was up nicely in a couple of hours of play (somewhere in the 10-20 range). Anyhow pissed me off since the place was empty so I boogeyed a few times to preserve my longevity there. Came back a few hours later (different shift etc) and gave half back; dont worry. Only regret was getting in about 70% of the planned hours due to a few big shoes where I felt it was better to leave rather than playing on and starting the fresh shoe low again.

Oh well need to get some rest now since I have a planned date with lady luck in the am.....

wong out
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top