The New Guy

[LiveBJ]

what up guys? Well I'm new to counting, and as a matter of fact, haven't even been into a casino. To be even more specific, I can't go into a casino...I'm only 20. In about 7 months, that'll all change though, and I want to be prepared. I saw the commercial for the movie 21, and hit the net with a mission...to see if card counting has real potential. Damn...I'm glad I did. I've always been exceptionally good with numbers, and the Hi-Lo system seems like it was made for me (with what I consider to be some "basic practice").

Now, I want to start things off the right way. I set aside an hour a day to practice the Hi-Lo count with a single deck of cards and just keep dropping them until I'm at the end of the deck and hope the count = 0 when Im finished. Yes, I do this for an hour. Its only been 2 days, and the results are amazing. I get 0 every time, and I'm not thinking about it TOO hard, but it still isn't perfect as I sometimes pause for a split, split second and my brain may trip up for a split split second. My goal is to be able to go through the deck in 25 seconds...effortlessly. Right now I'm at 35, what are your times?

So, since I'm serious and plan to practice everyday, diligently, I would appreciate any helpful drills you all could recommend to me that best simulate what goes down in the casino, and have proven to be effective in improving card counting ability. Even if it isn't proven...what drills do you do? how do you practice?

Am I going about this the right way? I mean I'm SERIOUS because I see the potential in money here...and I plan to practice EVERY SINGLE day so that my 21st birthday is the best one I could've ever imagined, and that one day, I'll be one of the best...MIT level if not higher.

Note:I'm also setting aside an extra hour a day to play and learn BS thoroughly, so that I'm not even thinking about it and its the only way I know how to play.

 

[checkmugged]

This is the same lameass advice I give to all people who are turning legal and wanting to put the rush on the casinos ... slow down, there's no hurry. Once you're 21 you'll be able to play as much as you want. You can sim all you want at home but it will not properly prepare you for live casino play.

I recommend you learn BS & learn it cold, very cold, cold as a brass toilet seat in the Yukon. The first few times you go to a casino you go and play nothing but BS. You'll get accustomed to many things such as interacting with people, figuring out how many decks are left, all the distractions that go on, etc... You can also practice counting in a real life setting but I would not recommend in the first few sessions actually using that count for anything, again, BS all the way.

You'll need to learn to cluster count, which once you get down to your 25 seconds (or whatever) counting down one deck, and then move on to multiple decks counting them down in X amount of time, you should start peeling off two cards at a time so when you see them in play you don't have to think of sets of cards as +1 and -1, but see them as a single unit, and know the two cards = 0 instead of having to do the math.

I also don't want to rain on your parade, but wanting to be "MIT level or higher" on your first day of playing blackjack when you'll have to look at the denominations still on your chips to make sure you're betting the correct amount is ridiculous lol. Set small goals, see them get acheived, and then move forward.

I'm also not sure what stakes you're wanting to play, what kind of games you have around you, where you're getting your bankroll from that you're going to hit the casinos so hard, etc...

Checkmugged

 

[LiveBJ]

Nice response, good advice. Really like the cluster counting idea and solely playing BS at first...I was doing it backwards. Still want to count down decks, but I'll focus more on BS.

Anyway, about the MIT thing, I'm expecting to suck my first dozen goes at the casino and am preparing myself to stomach a huge loss. Eventually, though, I want to be on that level and I figure practicing as much as I can at home will help me with that. I'm planning on adding plenty of things into my routine to best simulate the casinos just so that when I do take a seat at the table, I'll hopefully fall into things much easier, and getting used to the distractions wont be so rough.

Now the bankroll. I had some questions about that. I've been hearing so many things about online bonus whoring...it almost sounds like a sure thing. But it sounds like your out of luck if your in the US unless you happen to know something no one else does...yet. Any info on that would help a lot. Since I can't do that yet though, I already have some money saved up to spend on whatever.

My plan is to start with $500, bet minimums playing BS. when Im ready, Ill add counting to the mix. There are plenty of guidelines on how to bet properly and I'll find the right one, so that I don't go broke, when the time comes...I can't even gamble yet. I can tell you that Ill be very conservative.

Anymore practice drills to recommend?

 

[shadroch]

If you don't have $25,000 that you can afford to lose,it doesn't matter if you get to the MIT level.
There are three legs to be a successful counter.Knowing the game inside out,knowing how to count or otherwise gain an advantage,and having the bankroll to do it.
We are talking about a one percent advantage,on average. If you are betting $10 a hand,playing 75 hands an hour,you will average $7.50 an hour profit.
A $20 player may see $15 an hour profit.
Thats per hour of actually playing. Doesn't count traveling time,your cost of room ,board and transportation.Doesn't include any tips you lay out.
At anything less than $25 as a starting bet and spreading up to at least $100,you are twiddling your thumbs.
If you want to be on a comparable level as the MIT boys,first you need to find the funding.Really,all that seperated them from hundreds of others was the multi-million dollar funding they had.

 

[Doofus]

There are three legs to be a successful counter.Knowing the game inside out,knowing how to count or otherwise gain an advantage,and having the bankroll to do it.

I think you left out the fourth leg - cover, aka camouflage. Knowing how to keep the house from realizing you are a card counter. For if you are a master of knowing BJ, if you are a master of the count, and even if you have a big bankroll, all of this means NOTHING if you get the tap on the shoulder.

If you can't play, you can't win. And if you don't learn to hide the fact you're counting cards, you won't play for long.

In point of fact, having a big bankroll and playing for big stakes makes it all the more likely your card counting career will be a short one if you don't master camouflage first.

 

[checkmugged]

You shouldn't 'suck' at your first few attempts, you shouldn't even expect to lose serious money, hell, with short term variance you could even win playing only basic strategy. Playing perfect BS the house, depending on the rules of the game you're playing, has we'll say roughly a 1% edge (give or take). That means for every $100 you wager on average you'll lose $1. Since you'll be starting with a small bankroll I can't imagine your bets being that large so your losses initially should be minimal.

Your first day in a casino you should be able to play perfect basic strategy. You don't need to know know anything aside from what you've memorized. It's easy, it's comforting to know you're playing a game as best you can, making correct decisions, and again, some of your sessions you will come out ahead simply playing BS!

I can't help you out with the bonus whoring. I don't play bj online for $$.

Shadroch is right to a point, but don't let it get you too down not having a bankroll. You can start small, hopefully adding to your bankroll not only by playing but possibly other sources of income and build it up slowly over time. this is the same time where you'll be gathering experience and learning new ways to increase your advantage over the house.

You may also move on to another count where it's possible to have a 2% edge over the house instead of the 'typical' 1%. That added with the other weapons in your arsenal could bring you a standard advantage of 3% (*WAG figures)

Checkmugged

 

[LiveBJ]

If you don't have $25,000 that you can afford to lose,it doesn't matter if you get to the MIT level.
There are three legs to be a successful counter.Knowing the game inside out,knowing how to count or otherwise gain an advantage,and having the bankroll to do it.
We are talking about a one percent advantage,on average. If you are betting $10 a hand,playing 75 hands an hour,you will average $7.50 an hour profit.
A $20 player may see $15 an hour profit.
Thats per hour of actually playing. Doesn't count traveling time,your cost of room ,board and transportation.Doesn't include any tips you lay out.
At anything less than $25 as a starting bet and spreading up to at least $100,you are twiddling your thumbs.
If you want to be on a comparable level as the MIT boys,first you need to find the funding.Really,all that seperated them from hundreds of others was the multi-million dollar funding they had.

Well my plan was to mess around with the $500 and build on that. 7.5 an hour or whatever is okay because it'll be the learning phase, so I have nothing but time since such small bets shouldn't attract heat.My bankroll should go up slowly and as it does, I'll probably bet appropriately, yet still on the conservative side.

So, you can say my first month or whatever at the casinos will be practice. I won't actually start putting up the big bets until I can carry on a conversation while counting (camo)...I mean I want to master this. But this is all a long time from now, and I'm just trying to prep the best I can. After Ive got my drills down, Ill start adding distractions (music, tv, noises, people talking AT me, etc) to the drills. Then I'll start trying to respond to some of those distractions and keep my wits about all this. Then Ill try to respond and make it look natural, etc...

I figure its a good plan, and should ultimately lead to success unless something unexpected occurs like I just freeze at casinos like a punk for no reason (not that kind of guy).

Now that you mentioned it though, how would you go about getting funding for something like this? Have anything to offer about "bonus whoring"?

 

[sagefr0g]

...... I mean I'm SERIOUS because I see the potential in money here..........

how much money do you figure you might win in how much time?
are you thinking about a team approach? just curious.

 

[shadroch]

Playing with a $500 BR,you need to find $5 tables with good rules and that will allow you to spread 1-5. Not easy in this day and age.Forget about being willing to take some losses and work towards building a much bigger bankroll. A minimum of $1500.

 

[mjbballar23]

Playing with a $500 BR,you need to find $5 tables with good rules and that will allow you to spread 1-5. Not easy in this day and age.Forget about being willing to take some losses and work towards building a much bigger bankroll. A minimum of $1500.

This may be somewhat controversial but id say that if you are playing primarily to make money, you need at least a $10,000 bankroll to make it worth your time. The cost of travel will eat into a lot of your expected win that you must be able to wager some serious money or you wont have anything to show for your work. It sounds like you are strongly motivated by the money, which is great but you wont make much with only a $500 bankroll. However, if you plan on playing primarily for fun than take whever bankroll you have and give it a shot.

Im also getting the vibe that you think that card counting is an easy way to make some cash. All the breaking vegas videos and documentries on the MIT team make it seem like anyone that counts cards can get rich and it is just not that easy. Card counting is a grind and it can take hundreds of hours to see the long run results. There are many ups and downs in the game that many people just cant handle.

 

[Canceler]

When I first got interested in blackjack I thought $500 would be plenty to risk on this game. After just a little more playing, and a little more reading, it became clear that to give things a fair test I needed ten times that amount. And a couple times I’ve been within sight of losing it all, my low point being down $4317.50.

 

[EasyRhino]

To give you an idea of how variance absolutely overwhelms any long term advantage or disadvantage, I'll lop a zero off some recent sessions: My expected win rate was about $5/hour, but instead, my session results (typically short, about an hour) resulted in swings of a minimum of $100, and almost $200, both positive and negative. I didn't even have any "break-even" sessions. String together two bad hours of play, and a $500 bankroll would be gone

Online bonus whoring is still possible to a very very dramatically reduced extent. Still substantial finanicial risk involved, but generally less than card counting (because the advantage is larger). check out http://www.beatingbonuses.com

 

[la_dee_daa]

To give you an idea of how variance absolutely overwhelms any long term advantage or disadvantage[/url]

yea you have to be prepared for the variance, i just started hitting the casinos and my results are as follow
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9477

il tell you what i did for my drills, as they were very recent, my single deck counting got down to 15secs just for a reference number since it really only helps you get use to what the cards stand for. for several months i just counted the deck off and on. once i got under 30 seconds i figured out it might help to learn bs:laugh:. i started playing through 6 decks with a friend counting keeping track of the count with chips and a bs sheet with full indicies in front of me playing a proper bet spread, with no distractions counting the cards in doubles which helps alot. then got to the level where i could do it without the aid of chips a week later. started adding distractions like the tv. added more distractions such as conversation and not stalling while counting for conversation. Ended with semi taking away the full indicies sheet just to check if i was doing some of the non illustriouse 18 moves right.
I really only started looking more then doing a basic count down and practicing till the new year giving me 2 months to practice. And all my practice was in front of the tv on the couch. I was able to go into the casino and keep the count with no trouble at all with bs, proper deck estimation, conversation when brought up, and illustriouse 18. I felt after my first casino session i had been very prepared for the casino counting. This is how i learnt and like everyone says learn your bs as well as you know how to count to 5.

There are better things to do with money to make money then investing it in card counting just from a pure profit standpoint, if i was giving like $10 000 000 i doubt i would start a high stakes card counting team. card counting is the experience so remember to enjoy it!!

 

[LiveBJ]

Well I was expecting to double the money within 2 weeks. Didn't think that was asking a lot, and who knows where I'd be in a year considering my BR will be increasing quite a bit. But as Ive researched more and more, I understand how big of a roll variance plays in this hustle and why I would need a minimum of 10,000 ( so that my bets are 1/1,000 of my total bankroll[$10 bets]). I decided to use 1/1000 because I saw it in a dvd, and after I thought about it (as opposed to 1/500 or <) it is definitely a big enough ratio to guarantee my RoR is as minimal as it's going to get...unless I were a millionaire...which I'm not.

I understand Short Term and Long term Variance...the short term is why you need such a huge bank roll in the first place. Are there many $1/$5 tables in Vegas? I know it would take a while to get anywhere betting $5 with a $5,000 (much less $1 bets with a $1,000 BR), but like someone on here said, CC is a grind. Anyone start off with a BR this small ($1,000), took it seriously, and was successful? How successful?

Also, a good practice routine I use is playing at yahoo.com. You can set the amount of decks in a shoe, estimate the decks after you've played awhile, and best of all its great for counting practice. People just seem to bet the max and play without BS, making the game move pretty fast at times...much faster than I'd imagine a game at a casino would be played. If you were to practice there for awhile, it would force you to count quickly (subconsciously at times), quicker than you probably think your capable of, or your guaranteed to lose the count. The only down side to practicing this way is its extremely BORING, so I'd only recommend it to people who are as serious about this as I think I am.

 

[mjbballar23]

Well I was expecting to double the money within 2 weeks. Didn't think that was asking a lot, and who knows where I'd be in a year considering my BR will be increasing quite a bit. But as Ive researched more and more, I understand how big of a roll variance plays in this hustle and why I would need a minimum of 10,000 ( so that my bets are 1/1,000 of my total bankroll[$10 bets]). I decided to use 1/1000 because I saw it in a dvd, and after I thought about it (as opposed to 1/500 or <) it is definitely a big enough ratio to guarantee my RoR is as minimal as it's going to get...unless I were a millionaire...which I'm not.

.

I dont know which dvd you were watching but with a $10,000 bank, you can safely place max bets of about $100 not $10. and No there are no $1 tables in vegas, even $5 tables are rare on the strip but can be found downtown.

 

[LiveBJ]

I was watching "Beating Blackjack with Andy Bloch".

Basically, when your doing this for profit, your betting unit should be no more than 1/1000 of your bank roll according to Andy and I plan to betting $10 per hand. So, 10/(1/1000)= $10,000. Even if 1/1000 is a bit crazy...better safe than sorry, and this will be great for my piece of mind knowing that I'm using an "optimal" betting strategy (playing it real F*&*$n' safe).

When the MIT team did it, they had 1,000,000 to use. So, they were throwing down (on average) $100 betting units minimum because it was safe and as close to guaranteed as your going to get. When things got good, they were able to bet more than $400 for their max bets (4x100) because they caught the casinos off guard (still got banned from everywhere in less than a year), but I'm assuming that for the average advantage player who frequents casinos, betting 4x1Unit (minimum) for a max bet won't get you kicked out and assures you don't go broke if you stick to the 1/1000 BR rule.

Also, he recommends taking 32 units with you to a table every single time you sit down. So that'd be about $310 for me betting at $10/unit with a $10,000 BR...thats about 3.1% of my BR. If I were to bet $100/unit, then I'd need to carry $3,100 every game on a $10,000 Br, that would be betting 31% or my BR every time I sit down. Thats not safe to me...no where NEAR the cushion I believe you need to give your BR...definitely not a sure thing...your gambling there. I'm don't want to be a gambler, I want to be an advantage player and make money like a business.

So, for me, $10 units on my $10,000 BR ($40 units for max bets[alot more if the circumstances permit it]) is just right, and in the long run (long term variance I assume) things will go much much much smoother and profits will increase much quicker in the long run with almost no Risk of Ruin because your cushion is so great for all of the short term variance. 30% of your BR gone in about 4 hours due to short term variance is ruin as far as I'm concerned, so no $100 on a $10,000 BR is not safe...as a matter of fact its a huge gamble. If $100/unit on a 10,000BR is a gabmle your willing to take because your worried about $/hr. (making money as quick as possible while putting in as little play time as hopefully possible) then thats fine, but Mr. Bloch made enough sense to me that I'm not that...well lets just say eager.

Anyone else use about 3% of their BR at the table and spread their bets similar to this? Success?

Edit: mjballers after writing all that I see that you said $100 MAX bets safely...well your right but I never said $10 max bets. I just meant playing at a $10 table placing $10 bets normally...I'd bet at least $40 for my max bet...$100 would still be too high though because thats over 1/3 of the money you have on you...if your looking for a sure thing, as I am, you can't bet anymore than 1/4 of the money you have at the table (for doubling and splitting all while keeping RoR with the money you have on you in mind).

I know that the figures and gave are probably estimates, but they are damn good ones that WILL WORK.

 

[EasyRhino]

Yeah, setting that as a "unit size" isn't too bad. However, you'll probably need max bets over $40, just to have any sort of profit expectation. You could spread $5-$100, for instance, with a $10,000 bankroll. There would be a risk of ruin, but not a LARGE one.

Expected win rate would still be about $10 an hour. So you'd be able to double that bank in... 1000 hours. Or about 6 months if it was a 8-5 job with no variance.

Encouraging, isn't it?

 

[LiveBJ]

Encouraging, isn't it?

Very :laugh:. how are you figuring the $/hr and RoR? Also, playing at a $10 table...would that up it to $20/hr? I could see myself playing a 1:20 spread if the TC is worth it I guess. Plus I'm sure I'll slowly turn into a BIT of a gambler over time...has to happen, but I' WILL BE keeping it in check because it is a business adventure. You seem to have had INSANE success with your tiny $500 BR (before you started adding funds I believe) I can only hope I'm so lucky...

 

[la_dee_daa]

I was watching "Beating Blackjack with Andy Bloch".

i think your MIT story is a little off they were betting $1000's on their hands with something like ??1/3 kelly betting?? or something close to that.

....................

also you can bet $100 safely just bring like 16 max bets with you. I would assume the 32 units would be the buy in amount so you would buy in for that much. like a true count of +4 you can easily play $100 bets with $10 000 br and at least for my game i play, which isnt that great, would still be half kelly with ror of like ??1.69%?? about that.

 

[EasyRhino]

The $/hr is basically a guess. However, expected with win ran with average counting is often 1 unit per hour, maybe 2 in a great game.

You'd want to sim it for sure. Over at blackjackforumonline you can downlaod powersim, which is free. It will probably be more depressing.

Spreading $10-$100 would have a LOWER win rate than $5-$100, because you're "leaking" more in negative/neutral counts. It would also have higher variance, because your average bet would be higher. The result of decreased win rate with increased variance would also increase the risk of ruin.