Ploppy
Member
I have been visiting and lurking on this board for more than a year, maybe closer to two. I play blackjack only a few times a year and I do it for fun, not profit. First, I want to thank the regulars--most of all the Buddah of Blackjack, Ken Smith, for sponsoring the site, but also Sonny, I Hate 17, Zengrifter and the rest. You've helped me understand the game, from basic strategy to counting to the AP life that you all profess to lead. As for me--I know basic strategy cold and I'm proficient at the KO count at my kitchen table at least. I can count in the casino, not always perfectly, but pretty damn good--but because I don't play a lot, I don't spread my bets. If the count is high, I'll take insurance and make about five of the Illustrious 18 index plays. I figure that reduces the house edge somewhat and, as I say, I'm there to have fun. I don't need the variance.
So far, I've kept pretty silent on this board--what the Hell could I tell you that you didn't already know. But now, with the influx of newbies--presumably lured in by the movie--I will speak my mind.
No doubt, the movie will be the catylst for some few who will go on to be the next generation's Ken Ustons and Stanford Wongs. But in the short term, it is creating super-ploppies who will lose their bankrolls and their pride before they know it. At least regular ploppies know they're gambling. They expect to lose and if they happen to win, so much the better.
But the new super-ploppies expect to win when (a) they don't have the bankroll; (b) they don't have the time; and (c) they haven't practiced nearly enough. There was a thread on this site from a man who wants to have a $100 large bet with a $1,000 bankroll. Maybe he'll win his first night out, but the variance of the game is such that his bankroll will be gone if he keeps it up. There was a thread from somebody learning Hi-Lo who can't figure out how to learn basic strategy. You don't have to be Albert Einstein or even Ed Thorp to do this stuff, but you have to practice, practice, practice.
So, I say to the newbie super-ploppies that they must recognize the following:
A. Even in a high count with good rules (absent advanced non-counting techniques), you're EV can't be more than 1% or 1.5%. Even 1.5% ain't much of an advantage in the short term. There are plenty of roulette players who walk away winners in the short term, and they're playing at a disadvantage of 5%. On any given night, you can win or lose--and its not until you are well over 10,000 games that the variance begins to recede. Until that point, at a 1% advantage, you still have a sizeable chance of coming out behind. You're not likely to, but its statistically possible. If you're planning to play for three ten hour days, or if you're planning to play four hours every other Saturday, then your actual result will likely vary dramatically--up or down--from your EV.
B. Even if you were going to play 10,000 hands--roughly 1,000 - 1,500 hours (or six to nine months of forty hour weeks) at the tables--you'd go broke from the game's variance unless you had a sufficient bankroll. They say that if you are counting, you should have a bankroll that's 200 times your average bet--or a $5,000 bankroll for $25 average bet. If you don't, you risk losing it all. If you have substantially less than this, and you are spreading per your counting system, you're likely to be in real trouble sooner or later.
C. OK, lets say you have $5,000 and 1,000 free hours. Say your EV is 1%. With an average bet of $25, you would be earning, on average 25 cents per hand. With 100 hands per hour, you'd be getting $25 per hour, or $25,000 over a six month period of forty hour weeks of blackjack. Not bad, but you're not buying that yacht.
The MIT team had three things that the newbie super-ploppies don't: (A) Money (they were financed so they could safely make $10,000 bets at times); (B) Time (with a large team, they could get into the long term quickly); and (C) Discipline. That and a whole lot more in the way of advanced techniques.
My advice to the newbies is to join me in happy ploppy-land. Play basic strategy for a while. See how it suits you. Lurk and learn and grow your bankroll. Then, in a year or so, if you want to move to the next level, go ahead.
-Ploppy
So far, I've kept pretty silent on this board--what the Hell could I tell you that you didn't already know. But now, with the influx of newbies--presumably lured in by the movie--I will speak my mind.
No doubt, the movie will be the catylst for some few who will go on to be the next generation's Ken Ustons and Stanford Wongs. But in the short term, it is creating super-ploppies who will lose their bankrolls and their pride before they know it. At least regular ploppies know they're gambling. They expect to lose and if they happen to win, so much the better.
But the new super-ploppies expect to win when (a) they don't have the bankroll; (b) they don't have the time; and (c) they haven't practiced nearly enough. There was a thread on this site from a man who wants to have a $100 large bet with a $1,000 bankroll. Maybe he'll win his first night out, but the variance of the game is such that his bankroll will be gone if he keeps it up. There was a thread from somebody learning Hi-Lo who can't figure out how to learn basic strategy. You don't have to be Albert Einstein or even Ed Thorp to do this stuff, but you have to practice, practice, practice.
So, I say to the newbie super-ploppies that they must recognize the following:
A. Even in a high count with good rules (absent advanced non-counting techniques), you're EV can't be more than 1% or 1.5%. Even 1.5% ain't much of an advantage in the short term. There are plenty of roulette players who walk away winners in the short term, and they're playing at a disadvantage of 5%. On any given night, you can win or lose--and its not until you are well over 10,000 games that the variance begins to recede. Until that point, at a 1% advantage, you still have a sizeable chance of coming out behind. You're not likely to, but its statistically possible. If you're planning to play for three ten hour days, or if you're planning to play four hours every other Saturday, then your actual result will likely vary dramatically--up or down--from your EV.
B. Even if you were going to play 10,000 hands--roughly 1,000 - 1,500 hours (or six to nine months of forty hour weeks) at the tables--you'd go broke from the game's variance unless you had a sufficient bankroll. They say that if you are counting, you should have a bankroll that's 200 times your average bet--or a $5,000 bankroll for $25 average bet. If you don't, you risk losing it all. If you have substantially less than this, and you are spreading per your counting system, you're likely to be in real trouble sooner or later.
C. OK, lets say you have $5,000 and 1,000 free hours. Say your EV is 1%. With an average bet of $25, you would be earning, on average 25 cents per hand. With 100 hands per hour, you'd be getting $25 per hour, or $25,000 over a six month period of forty hour weeks of blackjack. Not bad, but you're not buying that yacht.
The MIT team had three things that the newbie super-ploppies don't: (A) Money (they were financed so they could safely make $10,000 bets at times); (B) Time (with a large team, they could get into the long term quickly); and (C) Discipline. That and a whole lot more in the way of advanced techniques.
My advice to the newbies is to join me in happy ploppy-land. Play basic strategy for a while. See how it suits you. Lurk and learn and grow your bankroll. Then, in a year or so, if you want to move to the next level, go ahead.
-Ploppy
