Theory Section?? Random question

[weavin42]

Ok so I wish there was a place on here to discuss theory like on the green chip site. Anyways, here is my question. It has been said that if you can determine effect of removal each card you can create a count system based on rules and payout. Therefore, it one should also be able to determine from effect of removal and optimal count for side bets. My question is how? I understand this might be too broad of a topic but I'm still curious. I have yet to read the "Theory of Blackjack" and this might provide some incite.

 

[jack.jackson]

Ok so I wish there was a place on here to discuss theory like on the green chip site. Anyways, here is my question. It has been said that if you can determine effect of removal each card you can create a count system based on rules and payout. Therefore, it one should also be able to determine from effect of removal and optimal count for side bets. My question is how? I understand this might be too broad of a topic but I'm still curious. I have yet to read the "Theory of Blackjack" and this might provide some incite.

Dont ask me how, but heres the formula you'll be usin.
Sum (tag x EOR) / SqRt(Sum tag^2 x Sum EOR^2)

 

[Sonny]

It has been said that if you can determine effect of removal each card you can create a count system based on rules and payout.

Right on.

Therefore, it one should also be able to determine from effect of removal and optimal count for side bets. My question is how?

There are two ways to do it. I’ll usually start with a combinatorial analysis of the game/side bet using a spreadsheet. That way I can type in any deck composition and instantly see what the exact house edge is. Just start with a complete deck/shoe and remove one of each card to see how the house edge changes. That’s basically your effect of removal for that card.

Alternatively, you could write a simulation program for the game/side bet. Then you can run a sim for differenet deck compositions just like with the spreadsheet. First sim a complete shoe/deck, then remove one card and run the sim again. These results will not be as accurate as a complete CA, but they should be close. You can also use the sim to confirm your CA numbers. If the numbers don’t match, one of them is wrong. Finding out which one can be days of fun. :cry:

There has been some discussion that using such a simplified EOR is not necessarily accurate. For example, if removing a three decreases the house edge by 0.2% then removing two threes should reduce it by about 0.4%. That is not always the case. The EORs are not always additive. It has been argued that we should use a weighted average of the removal of every card of a certain rank to determine the true EOR. I don’t disagree, but I don’t know that the results would be much more accurate.

Excellent question by the way.

-Sonny-

 

[EasyRhino]

You can do a combinatorial analysis using just a spreadsheet?

 

[Sonny]

You can do a combinatorial analysis using just a spreadsheet?

No, you also need about 5 cups of coffee.

[Wait for laughter...]

But seriously folks, yeah you just need a good spreadsheet. Type in all the formulas and it will instantly crunch the numbers for you. It also has helpful functions like Combin() that make the formulas much easier. Now if it could only teach my wife how to cook.

[Wait for laughter...]

[...still waiting...]

[...:sad:]

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

It has been said that if you can determine effect of removal each card you can create a count system based on rules and payout. Therefore, it one should also be able to determine from effect of removal and optimal count for side bets. My question is how?

Like you, it amazes me too how these guys figure this stuff out.

Anyway, fwiw, I always liked how the Wiz showed how counting cards in baccarat is impractical. I think it's appendix 2. Maybe it will give you an idea of what may be involved in any counting system.

Not saying I completely understood it, or that I could come close to proving it, but I liked it lol.

Also, somewhere on bjmath.com, there's like real math on a generalized correlation formula for this kind of stuff. At least I think that's what it's for lol.

I understand even less of that but it seems to sort of be like Joshjackson's formula but use a weighted average like Sonny refers to.

Also Bryce Carlson has a nice section on how his count was developed relative to playing, insurance and betting efficiencies. I thought it was interesting anyway from the point of view it gives you an idea of what's generally involved.

But it has to be a little complicated because why is there no generally published counting system for an AC Spanish21 game? Is it the difficulty of doing CA on the crazy rules? Has anyone invented a count, as impractical as it may be, to determine whether it's even practical? Or what would be involved in counting the Match bet?

Needless to say, even if I could figure something out, I wouldn't believe it anyway and am just happy to believe somebody else does all the hard work correctly lol.

 

[Kasi]

I’ll usually start with a combinatorial analysis of the game/side bet using a spreadsheet.

That is absolutely the greatest! :cool2:

Wow.

I only have like a million questions lol.

And only on 5 cups of coffee?

Since you know how to cook, why teach your wife? Let her starve.

Anyway, my wife knows how to cook while I never advanced much beyond eating a charcoaled hamburger to get my Boy Scout cooking badge, and that's pretty much her philosophy :grin:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...But it has to be a little complicated because why is there no generally published counting system for an AC Spanish21 game? Is it the difficulty of doing CA on the crazy rules? Has anyone invented a count, as impractical as it may be, to determine whether it's even practical? Or what would be involved in counting the Match bet?...

I have one, and I have it tweaked to perform about as well as an AC blackjack game. That's good in itself, but there is an e-book coming out "real soon now" from Australia that I hear has exhaustive data, and I'm waiting for that to come out to see what if anything I've missed, because I don't want to give anyone a bum steer by telling them to go play SP21. One interesting thing about SP21 is the standard deviation is a lot lower, because of the double-down rescue rule, and because you are hitting a lot more stiffs, resulting in pushes where there would otherwise be wins or losses.

The Match the Dealer bet can probably be counted with suits because of the big payoff for suited matches, but probably the only practical way to beat it is to attack the shuffle.

 

[Kasi]

I have one, and I have it tweaked to perform about as well as an AC blackjack game. That's good in itself, but there is an e-book coming out "real soon now" from Australia that I hear has exhaustive data, and I'm waiting for that to come out to see what if anything I've missed, because I don't want to give anyone a bum steer by telling them to go play SP21. One interesting thing about SP21 is the standard deviation is a lot lower, because of the double-down rescue rule, and because you are hitting a lot more stiffs, resulting in pushes where there would otherwise be wins or losses.

Well, for years it's just something I've wondered about since I like the game when I go to AC.

I've heard they've had discussions about it on paying BJ boards. And the Wiz says he might get around to it someday.

Guess overall I've just assumed that it is not a game susceptible to counting, much like baccarat. I mean, if it were, we'd know right? lol

Any broad info on the system you've developed, like level 1 or 2 etc, necessary spreads, or whatever, any thoughts on general performance, etc, I'd find interesting.

What, if it's not proprietary, do you think is the standard deviation of AC BJ?

Don't worry about a bum steer because I probably won't believe it anyway

 

[weavin42]

Thanks for all of the input, I have some "homework" to do now...well I will probably put it off until I'm on Christmas break from school.

I have used excel in the past to do combinatorial analysis, I will probably also write some sim code to validate my calculations.

Very good point that EOR isn't necessarily additive.

Thanks!

Josh

 

[EmeraldCityBJ]

But it has to be a little complicated because why is there no generally published counting system for an AC Spanish21 game? Is it the difficulty of doing CA on the crazy rules? Has anyone invented a count, as impractical as it may be, to determine whether it's even practical? Or what would be involved in counting the Match bet?

I have had success playing Spanish 21, just using HiLo, except counting aces as -2. I also ran a sim, and found that with this counting system, the Match the Dealer bet has +EV at true counts <=-9 or >=+11. Counts this extreme only occur about 0.75% of the time. There may be other counting systems which are better for this bet, but I've not explored any of them in detail.

It's worth noting that the SP21 book coming out soon describes a different counting system, so the TCs listed above will not apply for the system described in the book.

 

[Sonny]

But it has to be a little complicated because why is there no generally published counting system for an AC Spanish21 game?

Is the AC SP21 game different than the standard SP21 game? There are 3 SP21 counting systems published in the Green Chip archives by Wild Bill. He covers the BS, EORs, indices for all 3 systems (and HiLo and Halves as well), EVs, SDs, N0s, and SCOREs for all. It's quite impressive.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

Is the AC SP21 game different than the standard SP21 game? There are 3 SP21 counting systems published in the Green Chip archives by Wild Bill. He covers the BS, EORs, indices for all 3 systems (and HiLo and Halves as well), EVs, SDs, N0s, and SCOREs for all. It's quite impressive.-Sonny-

Thanks Sonny - that's good to know. I think I have 3 months membership there coming to me lol.

I don't know - in AC it's S17. In Vegas it seems to be all H17. I think H17 is evem more costly in SP21 than BJ.

In AC it's actually less HA than BJ.

With the added bonus of really pissing people off just playing BS lol.