Was back counting at a local house yesterday and spotted a 1-deck cutoff -- pretty unusual for this place. Count shot right up to +2 true, so I jumped in. Near the end of the shoe, we had an uncommonly high +9 true!
I had my max of 2 x 8 units each up there and was dealt an A/2 and an A/3. Dealer had a 10 up. Hitting my first hand, I caught a couple of babies to make a soft 18. The discard tray already looked like nearly five decks, but I reasoned I needed another hit and caught a 10.
Second hand, same scenario -- a 4 card soft 18! I was positive the cut card was very near and the true count was now a rare +12! (If you're a KO player, that's equal to +12 at this point in the shoe. With KISS III, it equals "31").
I was planning to exceed my normal betting limit with 2 x 10 units on the next round, but began to consider standing to preserve that there'd be a next round.
Unable to effectively weigh the alternatives effectively while "under-the-gun", I stuck to form and hit it, catching a 10. The dealer had 20. Still, I breathed a sigh of relief since the cut card still hadn't reared its ugly head. I smoothly put up my 2 x 10 units for the next round, and the first card out was the cut card. We never got the round off!
Driving home in the peace and quiet of my car, I began to evaluate the question of deliberately misplaying the soft 18 in exchange for quite possibly preserving the next round.
"Let's see, the penalty for standing with soft 18 vs. 10 is normally 4% of the bet -- but that's at a neutral count! What might it be at +12 true with so few low cards available to improve my hand and the dealer more likely than usual to have 20? And what was the likelihood that my very next hit would bring out the cut card? My advantage on the next blind round would be about 6% of 20 units".
Later at home, some software told me that the penalty for standing on soft 18 vs. 10 at +12 true was about 3% of the 8 units. So if the chance of the cut card being either of the next two cards was more than 20%, it would be better to stand. In retrospect, I'm sure that's what I should've done.
I had my max of 2 x 8 units each up there and was dealt an A/2 and an A/3. Dealer had a 10 up. Hitting my first hand, I caught a couple of babies to make a soft 18. The discard tray already looked like nearly five decks, but I reasoned I needed another hit and caught a 10.
Second hand, same scenario -- a 4 card soft 18! I was positive the cut card was very near and the true count was now a rare +12! (If you're a KO player, that's equal to +12 at this point in the shoe. With KISS III, it equals "31").
I was planning to exceed my normal betting limit with 2 x 10 units on the next round, but began to consider standing to preserve that there'd be a next round.
Unable to effectively weigh the alternatives effectively while "under-the-gun", I stuck to form and hit it, catching a 10. The dealer had 20. Still, I breathed a sigh of relief since the cut card still hadn't reared its ugly head. I smoothly put up my 2 x 10 units for the next round, and the first card out was the cut card. We never got the round off!
Driving home in the peace and quiet of my car, I began to evaluate the question of deliberately misplaying the soft 18 in exchange for quite possibly preserving the next round.
"Let's see, the penalty for standing with soft 18 vs. 10 is normally 4% of the bet -- but that's at a neutral count! What might it be at +12 true with so few low cards available to improve my hand and the dealer more likely than usual to have 20? And what was the likelihood that my very next hit would bring out the cut card? My advantage on the next blind round would be about 6% of 20 units".
Later at home, some software told me that the penalty for standing on soft 18 vs. 10 at +12 true was about 3% of the 8 units. So if the chance of the cut card being either of the next two cards was more than 20%, it would be better to stand. In retrospect, I'm sure that's what I should've done.
