To Jump or Not

[eps6724]

5 more months until I actually try a casino again, and still more questions I have.

Lately in practicing on various programs, I have found myself in a position of having the count plummet (6 deck shoe) but yet, I am still winning most of these small bets. I know that mathematically I will lose more hands than I win, but I am wondering...

As I approach a 'wong out' count (which I am looking at the count between 1.75 and 2 decks dealt out) if I AM winning the small hands, do I
A) Get out reguardless, because mathematically I will win only a certain amount of hands and should save this for a better count
OR
B) Stay in, because I am mathematically a favorite on the positive counts, so I am just experiencing that "normal flux" (i.e. luck) in these low counts and t won't affect my positive count win/lose %?

I tried the "Lucky Ned" approach from the voodoo forum, but all my gut was saying was-"you go into a casino and lose the money you promised to take your wife out to dinner on and you are DEAD!" which pretty much overshadows my gut instinct, leaving me to rely on math and counting.

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, when the count is actually in the process of plummeting, it means a lot of high cards are being played. This is good for the player, so it means that you should be winning slightly more hands.

However, if the count is low, and stays (or increases but is still negative), then that means that you are at an even bigger than usual disadvantage.

In an ideal world, you'd never play a negative hand. Practical considerations (available tables, crowds, camoflauge, no mid entry, cute girls next to you) are the only thing preventing you from continuously woning. But you can always just take a break and step away from the table when the count is horrible.

I think the "listen to your wife" count is a good idea.

 

[eps6724]

So my assumption is to ALWAY play "by the book" mathematically? By doing that, I am assuming that the ultimate goal is for the long run, and let the short run 'luck' really have no influence over you?

Sorry if it sounds redundant, but I really want all my ducks in a row before I use real money at a real table.

Thanks!

 

[RJT]

That's bang on esp,
You should always play exactly by the book - as long as you read a good book
As ER was saying, when the count is dropping that means the high cards are all flooding out, which is exactly what we are hoping for when we put the big money out. It's just unfortunate that a high count only tells you that more 10's and A's are likely to come out, it doesn't tell you that they defo will.
Any time you stray from the mathematically proven strategy, you are just throwing money away and personally, getting money's the reason i sit down in the first place.

RJT.

 

[eps6724]

Thanks for the replies. I'll keep working on 'seeing' only the math count plays!

 

[dacium]

I wouldn't wong out until the percetange advantage actually hits zero. This is because blackjack is a high variance game where most money is made on double and splits so you really want to see as many hands as you can otherwise you are going to be in a loooooong ride.

 

[eps6724]

I wouldn't wong out until the percetange advantage actually hits zero. This is because blackjack is a high variance game where most money is made on double and splits so you really want to see as many hands as you can otherwise you are going to be in a loooooong ride.

I understand the idea where most money is made, but I'm a little confused about the "percentage advantage". I was lead in my readings that if the count wasn't positive (or at least heading in that direction) at the 1.75-2 deck cut, to wong out. Could you elaberate on the 'percentage advantage' and figuring it?

Thanks!

 

[dacium]

Basically you should wong when the house has the advantage.

If you are equal with the house then still play because this reduces variance.

Generally a normal game is 0.5% house edge and each +1 count is 0.5% to the player, so at +1 the game is 0% house edge, so still play this.

I use to play only when the count was +4 or above and wong out alot. I got killed for a long time because of variance (you have to play tonnes of hands to be lucky enough to get doubles and splits). Now I come in at good counts and play until it hits 0.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Basically you should wong when the house has the advantage.

Yes first approximation. There's a little more to it that that though. You want to leave when the house has the advantage and you are less likely to get it back on that shoe than somewhere else. If I'm in an 8D pit, and halfway through a shoe that is slightly negative, I'd rather play there than go to a new shoe because that new shoe is going to be negative-EV for at least a few hands. The shoe I'm in can go positive very quickly because 4 decks are dealt out already.

This all changes if you are backcounting and Wonging in and out of shoes at will. If you are doing that there is never a need to play a -EV hand. But if you have a choice of tables to watch, you want to stick with the one that is partially dealt out, up to a point.

If you are equal with the house then still play because this reduces variance.

Generally a normal game is 0.5% house edge and each +1 count is 0.5% to the player, so at +1 the game is 0% house edge, so still play this.

I use to play only when the count was +4 or above and wong out alot. I got killed for a long time because of variance (you have to play tonnes of hands to be lucky enough to get doubles and splits). Now I come in at good counts and play until it hits 0.

No, backwards. If you are not playing any -EV hands, and the advantage is 0%, playing such a hand increases your risk of ruin. The reason is very simple: you can lose! And you will lose more often than you win, even though the advantage is 0%. You can double and split a bunch and still lose, and that will bring you closer to ruin. Not playing the hand has exactly the same advantage and cannot bring you closer to ruin.

 

[eps6724]

So a good "rule of thumb" for wonging out would be.....

 

[Sonny]

So a good "rule of thumb" for wonging out would be.....

As Don Schlesinger says, "Leave when you can make more money by standing than by sitting." If there are better tables available, get up and move. If there aren't, just sit back and watch. There really isn't any reason to be playing anything less than -2 TC in any case.

-Sonny-