Re: Ideas and Comments
>IDEAS AND COMMENTS
>Going no where as I have been for most of the year is more of the learning process, as is losing generally. I think that you cannot know how to win without knowing what losing is.
None of your losses look particularly large.
>I was encouraged by the fact of the relatively narrow range that I was losing within, frustrated by the apparent ceiling on my winnings.
Lack of variance is a sign that you are not putting out the big bets when the count says to.
>The turnaround date was June 1. The upward spike represents approximately 85 hours of play and took me from my low of the year to the high. A nearly uninterrupted climb of about 1000 units. Most recent play July 8. What a RIDE !!
>The game is mostly 6 deck but, I was doing as well with 8 (about 20% of the play). All games with relatively good to very good penetration. DOA, DAS, S17, NS(mostly).
This is not a particularly good game, unless you are getting penetration in excess of 5:6 -- the lack of surrender is a huge defect in the game.
>The system I use is UBZ II.
OK, but not great for shoe games. Better for double deck.
>I would characterize myself as more of an intuitive player than a mathmetical one but.
This scares me. There is something wrong with this statement, and I hope you never vary your plays or bet sizes based on your intuition. If intuition had ANY value whatsoever, Las Vegas would not exist.
>, will try to share my improved strategy as well as I can
>a. spreading to 2 or more hands where appropriate and circumstances allow.
This is not intuitive, this is a strong play.
>b. I have always only wonged out in extreme bad counts with 2 to 3 shoes played and seldom wonged in. My new strategy involved starting each new shoe with double or triple the minimum bet. Maintain that level as long as the count is rising. . Increase the bet in small steps as the count rises particularly if the count goes high early in the shoe. (This is loosely based on the color KO system ). If the count goes into doldrums or drops I start pulling my bet back toward the table minimum, pull back to one hand.
This sounds solid, again non-intuitive, and a way of getting a larger spread without being obvious.
> Eventually just quit the shoe if the count drops too low with no apparent room for recovery.
Of course! Bathroom breaks and cell phones are great for this move.
>If the shoe goes very rich (pivot point and beyond) I spread my bet based on
my opening bet (of 2-3 times min) so that I am soon spread 10 to 15 times the table min and no one suspects anything becasue i have been betting high all along.
Yep. Good strategy.
>c. Insurance is my best friend at high counts. Also have done well with standing on 15/ 16 v T.
It is all our friend at high counts -- but UBZ has a very poor insurance correlation. Again, the counting system you are using is far from optimal for the shoe game, where betting efficiency is the key.
>d. An improved bankroll allows me to ride out bad flucuations and hang around until the next winning shoe.
You haven't had to wait long then. The wait can go on for days.
>I always try to walk away a winner.
This is a really really bad idea. Go away a loser just as often as you can. Let them know you suck. This will prolong your life at the tables. Going away a winner has nothing to do with playing a winning game.
>Also it affords me the strngth to play more aggressively with higher bets at higher counts.
You should be betting based on count, not on your desire to walk away a winner.
My sense is that you have been lucky, and I am very happy for your rush. You also seem to have a couple of mythological deamons: intuition, walking away a winner (and maybe others?). You are using a relatively weak system for the decent game you are playing (if the pen is good enough).
Congrats on your win, I hope it continues that way for you for a long time!
--Mayor
