Ugh, first big dive!

[johndoe]

Well, I suppose I've earned my stripes now - last week I took my first big dive. Damn that variance! 250+ units down in a few days of play. I suppose my long winning streak had to end sometime.

On several shoes, the count skyrocketed, but I just couldn't win a hand. Sometimes not a single win after several hands of TC>+6. Boy, does that make the BR bleed quick!!

Even when I tightened up and only wonged in at +1 or +2 (with a good act), I *still* got slaughtered. This after waiting around endlessly for a +EV shoe.

I am quite confident my skills are in order; I had to be REAL sure I wasn't making any mistakes (my partner attests I wasn't - he lost too, just not as badly).

It'll happen to all of us eventually, of course. It's part of the game, and that RoR is a very real number..

To be sure, this is money I can easily live without, as I'm young, employed, and have a very replenishable bankroll. But it still stings.

At least now my favorite stores can post a nice loss for me, even if the cheap bastards didn't give me much of a rating.

 

[creeping panther]

Johndoe

Well, I suppose I've earned my stripes now - last week I took my first big dive. Damn that variance! 250+ units down in a few days of play. I suppose my long winning streak had to end sometime.

On several shoes, the count skyrocketed, but I just couldn't win a hand. Sometimes not a single win after several hands of TC>+6. Boy, does that make the BR bleed quick!!

Even when I tightened up and only wonged in at +1 or +2 (with a good act), I *still* got slaughtered. This after waiting around endlessly for a +EV shoe.

I am quite confident my skills are in order; I had to be REAL sure I wasn't making any mistakes (my partner attests I wasn't - he lost too, just not as badly).

It'll happen to all of us eventually, of course. It's part of the game, and that RoR is a very real number..

To be sure, this is money I can easily live without, as I'm young, employed, and have a very replenishable bankroll. But it still stings.

At least now my favorite stores can post a nice loss for me, even if the cheap bastards didn't give me much of a rating.

John,

What you must learn to do is not accept the *variance* but learn how to stop it, and or deal with it, as in nipping it in the bud.

Think outside the box... be proactive.

6d shoe right?

CP

 

[EasyRhino]

250+ units down in a few days of play.

Define your spread using these units.

 

[johndoe]

Think outside the box... be proactive.

6d shoe right?

CP

8D in this case, with good pen. (usually 1 deck)

I'm keeping my eyes open for other opportunities, but I haven't seen many; I could learn shuffle tracking and such, but it's not clear it will be viable in this case. Opportunities for hole carding are very rare, as are scavenger plays. Am I missing something?

My biggest variance reducer was aggressive wonging in/out with a good act, but even that wasn't enough in this case of a spectacularly (for me) bad run.

 

[johndoe]

Define your spread using these units.

1-12 usually, or when another spot was available, 1-2x8. Green mostly.

When I started aggressively wonging (entering +1 or +2), I was tightening up (and my trip BR was near-depleted), so I was max at 6 units, sometimes 2x4 if I thought I could get away with it. But this was mostly after the big bad run ran its course.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

John,

What you must learn to do is not accept the *variance* but learn how to stop it, and or deal with it, as in nipping it in the bud.

Think outside the box... be proactive.

6d shoe right?

CP

I don't agree. Variance, by definition, cannot be stopped. There is no reason why it happens and nothing that can prevent it if we choose to continue playing. And what's worse, it can happen again on Johndoe's next session just as easily as it did on his last one. It can only be accepted.

 

[bjcount]

1-12 usually, or when another spot was available, 1-2x8. Green mostly.

When I started aggressively wonging (entering +1 or +2), I was tightening up (and my trip BR was near-depleted), so I was max at 6 units, sometimes 2x4 if I thought I could get away with it. But this was mostly after the big bad run ran its course.

Just my guess, but by cutting your spread in half would take you 4 times longer to recover your bankroll if even possible on a day trip since a larger spread is required to beat an 8d game w/favorable rules to begin with.
Chaulk it up as one of those very bad days.

BJC

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Just my guess, but by cutting your spread in half would take you 4 times longer to recover your bankroll if even possible on a day trip since a larger spread is required to beat an 8d game w/favorable rules to begin with.
Chaulk it up as one of those very bad days.

BJC

If he's Wonging in and Wonging out, 1-6 spread is more than enough. Probably a good way to play when you're depleted too. I agree, we've all had days like that, nothing you can do about but keep playing until you get its mirror image.

He's playing High-Low not RPC so Wonging in at +1 or +2 for him is like Wonging in at +2 or +4 for us. Starting out with a 0.5-1% advantage, he should already be almost halfway up his betting ramp.

 

[Sonny]

Variance, by definition, cannot be stopped. There is no reason why it happens and nothing that can prevent it if we choose to continue playing.

Very well said. That is almost a word-for-word perfect explanation in my opinion. I think CP just meant that we should reduce the variance to a level that is acceptable to us (and preferably a bit lower) and then deal with it. There are a lot of discussions about how to get a bigger advantage but not very many on how to manage and reduce the natural fluctuations. Knowledge of both is crucial.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

despair is a good thing if anger is averted

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=114697&postcount=379

 

[bjcount]

If he's Wonging in and Wonging out, 1-6 spread is more than enough. Probably a good way to play when you're depleted too. I agree, we've all had days like that, nothing you can do about but keep playing until you get its mirror image.

He's playing High-Low not RPC so Wonging in at +1 or +2 for him is like Wonging in at +2 or +4 for us. Starting out with a 0.5-1% advantage, he should already be almost halfway up his betting ramp.

I stand corrected, and here's a canned sim to indicate the same.

BJC

 

[johndoe]

Thanks for all the responses.

I won't stop playing, of course - this risk is part of the game, and I do enjoy it. My BR is replenishable; after the stock market crash this is small change anyhow.

I suppose I'm hoping for any advice on what I might have done wrong, and what I can work on or adjust in the future. Moving to a +1 or +2 wong is a little more risky cover-wise (usually I'm just out at -2), and much less enjoyable, since I like to play. I think I did the right things, here. I use hi-lo/I18/F4, and don't see any need to change that.

Does anyone have a rough idea how (un)likely this sort of bad streak is?

 

[creeping panther]

Sorry

I don't agree. Variance, by definition, cannot be stopped. There is no reason why it happens and nothing that can prevent it if we choose to continue playing. And what's worse, it can happen again on Johndoe's next session just as easily as it did on his last one. It can only be accepted.

Sorry, but one should ever accept negative variance anymore than one would accept a heart attack. To accept is weakness. Learn to stop it, it can be done. There is a reason why it happens, learn those reasons.


Best to you,

CP

 

[johndoe]

Sorry, but one should ever accept negative variance anymore than one would accept a heart attack. To accept is weakness. Learn to stop it, it can be done. There is a reason why it happens, learn those reasons.

I wish you would be clearer about what you are getting at. Variance is an inherent part of the game, and the statistics that govern it. There are ways to reduce it to some degree (i.e. not spreading as much, team play, etc.) but these all come with real costs, too.

What are you getting at? Please assure me it isn't some sort of voodoo.

 

[EasyRhino]

I would normally say that the suggestion is to reduce variance as much as possbile, by finding as large an advantage as possible, making variance-reducing plays when it's smart, and most importantly, betting within your bankroll.

Panther might have actual voodoo in mind, though. Dolls and stick figures and stuff.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Sorry, but one should ever accept negative variance anymore than one would accept a heart attack. To accept is weakness. Learn to stop it, it can be done. There is a reason why it happens, learn those reasons.

As long as there is randomness, there will be variance, and some of it will be negative. Get over it.

Snyder talks about this and explains that without bad luck a lot of the time, we wouldn't be allowed to play at all.

 

[actuary]

As long as there is randomness, there will be variance, and some of it will be negative. Get over it.

Snyder talks about this and explains that without bad luck a lot of the time, we wouldn't be allowed to play at all.

I could not disagree with you more. There is no such thing as "negative variance" since variance is defined as a sum of squares, which is always positive!

I know you are not the only one to mention "negative variance" here, or even in this thread, but what is particularly disturbing is that a few posts earlier you made mention of the definition of variance to support an argument!

 

[creeping panther]

Monkey

As long as there is randomness, there will be variance, and some of it will be negative. Get over it.

Snyder talks about this and explains that without bad luck a lot of the time, we wouldn't be allowed to play at all.

If Snyder says it is must be Gospel.

The problem is so many of you are willing to follow the Guru's and never think for yourselves,...... accept the negative, BS! Do not be like sheep willing to run over the cliff just because the sheep herder pushes you in that direction.

"Get over it"..:laugh:

My personal record is 13 straight trip wins, 3 day trips playing almost non stop in various casinos. I did not do that by accepting negative situations, but rather by changing the negative to positive.

CP

 

[creeping panther]

John

I wish you would be clearer about what you are getting at. Variance is an inherent part of the game, and the statistics that govern it. There are ways to reduce it to some degree (i.e. not spreading as much, team play, etc.) but these all come with real costs, too.

What are you getting at? Please assure me it isn't some sort of voodoo.



John,

The only voodoodo is believing that you are at the mercy of negative events, as some here amazingly want you to believe.

CP

 

[sagefr0g]

post of 2009 award

The problem is so many of you are willing to follow the Guru's and never think for yourselves,...... accept the negative, BS! Do not be like sheep willing to run over the cliff just because the sheep herder pushes you in that direction.

John,

The only voodoodo is believing that you are at the mercy of negative events, as some here amazingly want you to believe.

CP

that's wtf i'm tawkin bout!
amen, glory hallelujah!
:celebrate