Unbalanced Counts and Reaching Pivot Early

[JAXBOY]

I think I read this at the BJ forum online (article comparing Red 7, KO and Hi Lo). Sorry can't link it here at work... workplace filtered the site out.

There was a paragraph or two reaching about how an advantage maybe different depending on where you reached the pivot (early in shoe vs late shoe). I guess that's one of the reason why a hi lo maybe a better system.

Suppose you reach the pivot real damn early (like within two decks) using KO. Should you use a lower betting spread since I suppose the advantage is different compared to reaching the pivot mid or late shoe.

 

[Mikeaber]

I think I read this at the BJ forum online (article comparing Red 7, KO and Hi Lo). Sorry can't link it here at work... workplace filtered the site out.

There was a paragraph or two reaching about how an advantage maybe different depending on where you reached the pivot (early in shoe vs late shoe). I guess that's one of the reason why a hi lo maybe a better system.

Suppose you reach the pivot real damn early (like within two decks) using KO. Should you use a lower betting spread since I suppose the advantage is different compared to reaching the pivot mid or late shoe.

I misread your question. I was going to say that it is very seldom indeed that you reach pivot within 2 decks on a 6-deck shoe with KO. It usually comes at the 4-deck point and sometimes at 3. I've never adjusted my spread because of early achievement. Maybe I should!

 

[sagefr0g]

I think I read this at the BJ forum online (article comparing Red 7, KO and Hi Lo). Sorry can't link it here at work... workplace filtered the site out.

There was a paragraph or two reaching about how an advantage maybe different depending on where you reached the pivot (early in shoe vs late shoe). I guess that's one of the reason why a hi lo maybe a better system.

Suppose you reach the pivot real damn early (like within two decks) using KO. Should you use a lower betting spread since I suppose the advantage is different compared to reaching the pivot mid or late shoe.

i really like answering this particular question as it is one that i also once wondered about and was given an answer that was reasonable and understandable.
i don't believe the scenerio that you describe makes hi/lo a better system than ko. the scenerio you describe is a confidence problem essentially. if you reach a nice high true count with hi/lo or the pivot with ko and it is very early in the shoe the thing is that mentaly you realize there are one heck of a lot of cards left in that shoe and they could be combined in all kinds of ways that may or may not be advantageous for you. but you should still go ahead and bet the optimal bet for that true count or pivot point. it's a rare occurence to be presented with a jewel of a count like that. so you don't want to let that slip away by foregoing the optimal bet. besides if you should bet up and lose your still burning EV and thats a good thing statisticaly speaking. additonaly if the count does not fall after your bet then you are going to be going further into the deck with a good true count or count beyond the pivot that gives you yet another opportunity to put another optimal bet out there. those precious high cards are still in that shoe just waiting to be fed out to hopefully you!
the thing that i think sets hi/lo apart from ko has to do with how hi/lo discerns the advantage at a wide range of advantage points or true counts where as it is my understanding that unbalanced counts such as ko lose accuracy with respect to the advantage the further from the equivalent to hi/lo's true count of plus two that the actual advantage conditions stray. in other words unbalanced counts as i understand it are most accurate around the hi/lo +2 true count area and fall off as the advantage increases.
thats my take on it

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[JAXBOY]

link and paragraph

Here's the link that triggered my thoughts...

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/battleofbabies.htm

and the paragraph

Finally, the risk-adjusted method of analysis will give an unbalanced system an ability to bet far more accurately in all games than would be possible in the real world. A Hi-Lo or Omega II player who is using a true count system will truly know when his advantage is approximately +1/2%, +1%, +1.5%, +2%, etc., and he will be able to size his bets accordingly. This would also be true of an Advanced Red Seven player who is using the true edge method of bet sizing. For a KO player or a simple Red Seven player who is purely going by the running count, an accurate bet can only be made at the pivot. If a Red Seven or KO running count is +6 above the pivot, the actual player advantage will be quite different in a six deck game if only two decks have been dealt than if 4.5 decks have been dealt.

 

[sagefr0g]

Here's the link that triggered my thoughts...

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/battleofbabies.htm

and the paragraph

Finally, the risk-adjusted method of analysis will give an unbalanced system an ability to bet far more accurately in all games than would be possible in the real world. A Hi-Lo or Omega II player who is using a true count system will truly know when his advantage is approximately +1/2%, +1%, +1.5%, +2%, etc., and he will be able to size his bets accordingly. This would also be true of an Advanced Red Seven player who is using the true edge method of bet sizing. For a KO player or a simple Red Seven player who is purely going by the running count, an accurate bet can only be made at the pivot. If a Red Seven or KO running count is +6 above the pivot, the actual player advantage will be quite different in a six deck game if only two decks have been dealt than if 4.5 decks have been dealt.

there you go Jax good link. i copied a statement Arnold Snyder made in that article and pasted it here in quotes. it's the point i've been trying to make:
"The Big Blunder
Here’s where Vancura and Fuchs went wrong. KO’s imbalance makes it strongest and most accurate when the running count is at its pivot. "
the implication is that KO would lose accuracy the further from the pivot you are. hi/lo does not suffer from that limitation.

best regards,
mr fr0g