Video Poker - how many times to double (if at all) ?
- Thread starter UK-21
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SleightOfHand
Well-Known Member
I think this can be considered something like taking odds in craps. Its a 0 edge game, so if you are playing a 100+% game, it is lowering your total edge, while playing a negative game will increase your edge (but never above 100). So if playing a negative EV game, play it all you want, otherwise I would refrain from playing it.
UK-21
Well-Known Member
As I understand it, most VP payout tables are virtually a zero game - 99.9x%?
But what's this based on? If it's based on a sim of millions of cycles, then during those it's probable that some of the high payout hands will have occured (royal flushes etc). If it's these that bring it to virtually a zero game, then the prospects over the short term, and even the longer term, won't look nearly so good as these don't occur very often and significantly skew the payout. Perhaps removing these "once in a lifetime" hands would give a truer representation for the average player?
Another related question - on a VP hand, is it based on a random shuffle of a single deck of cards or more? I have played some online simulators where I've been dealt two identical cards.
Newb99
But what's this based on? If it's based on a sim of millions of cycles, then during those it's probable that some of the high payout hands will have occured (royal flushes etc). If it's these that bring it to virtually a zero game, then the prospects over the short term, and even the longer term, won't look nearly so good as these don't occur very often and significantly skew the payout. Perhaps removing these "once in a lifetime" hands would give a truer representation for the average player?
Another related question - on a VP hand, is it based on a random shuffle of a single deck of cards or more? I have played some online simulators where I've been dealt two identical cards.
Newb99
SleightOfHand
Well-Known Member
Yes, royals and the big payouts are a major part of the EV in VP games. You are pretty much draining money slowly until those hit. In a Full Pay Deuces Wild game, if I rememebr correctly, Royals occur about once every hundred hours while the 4 deuces come up about 1 in 10 hours. So they are not "once in a lifetime." However, this is also assuming you are using BS. If not, your chances of these payouts are probably a lot smaller (well, the deuces are probably common sense). With this info, I think its safe to suppose that except for the big payouts, doubling would be an even better idea than I previously said.newb99 said:
As I understand it, at least in Vegas, computer simulations of card games must represent the same odds of receiving cards as on a table game. The VP games are dealt from 1 deck while BJ games may use multiple decks.newb99 said:
Brock Windsor
Well-Known Member
SleightOfHand
Well-Known Member
I wonder...
if the double up feature even on 100+% games can actually increase overall EV. Lets ignore variance for now. If we know that VP is a -EV game without the BIG payouts, and if playing even money games in conjunction with -EV games increases overall EV, wouldn't playing the double up feature except for the BIG payouts increase our overall EV?
if the double up feature even on 100+% games can actually increase overall EV. Lets ignore variance for now. If we know that VP is a -EV game without the BIG payouts, and if playing even money games in conjunction with -EV games increases overall EV, wouldn't playing the double up feature except for the BIG payouts increase our overall EV?
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
NO. Your e.v. does not change at all.
Both your win and loss expectations double in terms of real dollars.
It does increase your variance, which is to say that your swings will be wider in both directions - plus and minus.
If the game has a negative e.v. [and V.P. does] doubling up on a virtual coin flip is not a very good idea,
but it is really a purely subjective matter re: your personal level of risk-aversion.
On a related matter, if you consider that Video Poker, presuming that you play the correct games, AND play without errors, AND utilize an excellent strategy, probably has an e.v that is better than 99%, BUT if you are intending to play for a few hrs. and are willing to stipulate that you are NOT expecting to hit a Royal Flush, your e.v. is probably about 96%, leaving you with an e.v. of -4.0%; but wait - it is far worse than that; because nobody considers the huge federal Tax 'Bite', as if it need not be paid.
In my humble opinion, for most players V.P. is not an advantageous opportunity.
Both your win and loss expectations double in terms of real dollars.
It does increase your variance, which is to say that your swings will be wider in both directions - plus and minus.
If the game has a negative e.v. [and V.P. does] doubling up on a virtual coin flip is not a very good idea,
but it is really a purely subjective matter re: your personal level of risk-aversion.
On a related matter, if you consider that Video Poker, presuming that you play the correct games, AND play without errors, AND utilize an excellent strategy, probably has an e.v that is better than 99%, BUT if you are intending to play for a few hrs. and are willing to stipulate that you are NOT expecting to hit a Royal Flush, your e.v. is probably about 96%, leaving you with an e.v. of -4.0%; but wait - it is far worse than that; because nobody considers the huge federal Tax 'Bite', as if it need not be paid.
In my humble opinion, for most players V.P. is not an advantageous opportunity.
UK-21
Well-Known Member
That comment is reasonable and puts it in perspective. Remove the Royal Flush possibility and the game deteriorates to a run-of-the-mill slot machine. It also explains why, despite wasting many hours playing VP simulators online, I am rarely up after an hour or so playing - I think it happened once.