Dopple said:
But then how can you refute that fact that a long established hourly expectation has been achieved in this case and you will find your way back to that win rate average with all factors equal.
A correction will come although it may not been in the near future I would speculate that after a big win streak your total collective winnings over the next period say 6 months will on average be less than after an equal loss streak.
I may be getting a little, well you know, but I think I am right.
Maybe we should just drop it.
hopefully it wont just be dropped. and of course you are right IMHO. hey let's not forget how limited the power of card counting is in reality. so what you mention above is a known fact. that is knowledge we have. so let's appreciate that fact. orthodox card counting can't put that knowledge to any useful affect. nor (as far as i know) can a computer simulation. but there is an enourmous potential to either save or gain in this knowledge if we as decision making humans only knew when lol.
so with orthodx counting we charge head long into battle knowing full well that the next battle might likely be lost but also knowing that most likely we shall win more battles than we lose over all and at least that we are likely to win the war lol. but wouldn't it be great if we could avoid some of those losing battles or at least lessen the loses in those losing battles?
the big question is of course when. and that is what we can't know lol.
you mentioned six months and that seems reasonable to you. but then for my limited experience well i went two years with out what was in my perception a significant loss. but all along i knew the other shoe was going to drop sooner or later and it did with a resounding boom that being one seventh of my bankroll going back into the casino's couffers. and of course when did it happen? just when i'd increased my bet spread of course. doesn't anything that can go wrong, go wrong at the worst possible time? lol murphy's law or something.
variance, standard deviation and fluctuation or what ever you want to call it is huge in blackjack. and with orthodox card counting we know that all of that not with standing we have this expectation for time spent at some rate of hands played per hour. so as mentioned above the big question we can't answer is when. but part of the answer as you allude to is that within a knowledge of where we are at with respect to our expectation is an element of the knowledge of time. and even yet we still can't answer the question of when. when are we going soaring above our expectation, when are we just going to realize expectation or when are we plummeting to the depths of hell.
but we have one other bit of knowledge. we know something about our selves. the computer can't be happy with it's self. it doesn't have a self lol.
but we can. unfortunately (i think) the professional blackjack card counter can't be happy with his self either if he wants to make the most money. he needs to be virtually selfless with repsect to play and glean his happyness from his professional conduct and the knowledge that he'll reach his expectation at some risk of ruin. but as a professional card counter he has given up his option of deciding anything about the question of when. that is if he has a long future of playing as a professional.
but a recreational player does have some degree's of freedom as to dabbling with the question of when. that degree of freedom would ultimately be bounded by the size of the advantage or expectation and the goal the rec player has. if your goal=G is smaller than your expectation (as an orthodox counter) then you have EV - G = F where degree's of freedom = F. so what you can do is take F and gamble with it how ever you choose in the game of blackjack and it is as if you were gambling against a fair game such as an unbiased coin flip. ( lol at least i think thats true)
according to your goal you are already a happy camper. so if you choose not to gamble F you can still play along happily and actually happily over the factor of G by F. if you decide to do so you can place F at risk when ever you decide (within the bounds of EV) and if you lose it your still happy with G and if you win it your happy by EV + F, which leaves you very happy indeed (for a possibly only brief moment lol ). but here is where the situation that you alluded to can come into play. say your on that pinacle (high or low) and all you know is sooner or later but not when but when is likely to be soon the question becomes wouldn't that be a good time to choose to gamble or not gamble some saved up F? lol i'm probably full of you know what here just some more of my ramblings that the bullet chaser probably should relegate to the voodoo forum. :joker:
edit ===>> i guess that gambling with F some would raise your risk of ruin.
