What are the odds?

J

Johnrfla

Active Member
Greetings everyone,

My first time post and wondered about this occurance. I was at Sam's town in Shreveport playing at a 25.00 table, after winning a number of hands I got bold and began playing 100.00
Well I wind up getting 4 black jacks in roll. Now what are the odds of that? Their tables are all 6 deck shoes hand shuffled. Once the shoe was over, I colored in and amassed 1500.00 which I stopped and went on my way to Texas for a real merry X-mas.

Sincerely,
John
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
Not so fast, Sparky

NO way. That is not remotely close to the correct odds.

Those are the odds ONLY when the prediction of a SPECIFIC set of four (4) consecutive hands is announced in advance.

To illustrate ... the odds of rolling 6-6 or any double number on a set of dice is 35 to 1.
The odds of rolling consecutive 6-6's is 35 x 35 -1 /100
Those are odds of 1,224:1

Every crap shooter knows that he has seen people play the "6-6 hopping parlayed"
The shooter received only 899-1 odds.
BUT every crap shooter has seen this payed off.
Yep. It (figuratively speaking) "happens all of the time"
There will always be some rube who yells out: "What were the Odds on that?"
Well ... since the shooter had played a $1 parlay on that bet for the last 100
rolls the odds were thus reduced from 1,224:1 to 12.24:1.
Would you care to give me 99:1 odds on throwing 6-6 consecutively once (or more) in one hundred trials?
I think not.

The point should be clear by now.
The original situation of four consecutive blackjacks is not far fetched,
as it will happen sooner or later, and when it does it will still give birth
to this same question, even if it took years for it to occur.

Note: Last week in Las Vegas I was playing a shoe game with "ReSplit Aces"
Not only did I receive 4 consecutive Aces resulting
in splitting to 4 hands, but each of them received a face card !

 
C

callipygian

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
Those are the odds ONLY when the prediction of a SPECIFIC set of four (4) consecutive hands is announced in advance.
Click to expand...
This.

The actual odds are pretty easy to derive from (4/169)^4, though. Just multiply by (n-3), where n is the number of hands you played, if n is relatively small (<100,000 or so). Otherwise, it's 1-(1-(4/169)^4)^(n-3).

The event is still relatively unlikely. In a neutral, infinite shoe, the odds at 1,000 hands are still 3,200 to 1 against.
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
It's exremely rare. In tens of thousands of hands, I've never seen it happen.
I've gotten three in a row numereous times but have yet to get that elusive fourth.
Last trip, I twice split Aces and recieved two more aces.Both were in places that didn't let you resplit them so I was stuck with a hard 2. Ended up winning once and losing the other.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
You said:

"Ended up winning once and losing the other."

That is not possible, as you stood on duplicate hands.

The covariance, therefore, is 1.0
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
"Last trip,I twice split Aces and recieved two more Aces."

Which part of that don't you understand?
The first time it happened, (Trop Express)I ended up with two hands of two and lost.
The second time it happened, (El Cortez)
I also ended up with two hands of two and won.
Again,what part don't you understand?
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member

I misread your text.

You said "once" and I read "one"

My eyes are bad, as everyone knows by now.

L.O.L.

Sorry
 
V

vingtetun

Active Member
Double deck

I was playing DDeck about six months ago and got BJ on the first hand of the shoe five shoes in a row. It was funny because of course my bigger bets are not the first hand of shoe. After two in a row the dealer told to bet big at the beginning so I did on the next three. I was real supersticous(sp?) about it to the dealer. It was pretty funny, camo and I made some good money.
 
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