What are the odds?

Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
My guess at the odds a player had a 9,9 vs a 6 in hit soft 17 if he stayed my guess would of been that he would have won about 53% of the time. My guess on the split was that he would win each hand about 60% of the time. Question to you math wizs how often will you win each hand when you split
9's vs a 6? He ends up making 3 hands getting a stiff, 19, and 21 than the dealer pulls 21. What are the odds of making 3 hands in single deck?
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2.html
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix9-1dh17r4.html

EV (not win percentage) of standing 9,9 vs. 6: +0.20
Probability of dealer 6 becoming 18: 0.11
=> Win percentage = 54-55%

The splitting case is a little trickier, since splitting 9,9 isn't like having two hard 9's.
EV (not win percentage) of splitting (noDAS) 9,9 vs. 6: +0.35
EV of one-card 9 vs. 6 = +0.18
Probability of tying dealer 6 estimated by comparing dealer 6 with dealer 9:
at 17: 0.12*0.12 = 0.014
at 18: 0.11*0.10 = 0.012
at 19: 0.12*0.36 = 0.041
at 20: 0.11*0.12 = 0.013
at 21: 0.11*0.06 = 0.007
=> Total tie percentage is about 9%
=> Win percentage = 54-55%
 

Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
What are the odds of the player and the dealer busting at the same time if the player is playing perfect basic stragedy? Pair splits count as 2,3, or 4 seperate hands so if you split a pair a pair of 8's and bust both of them that counts as playing 2 hands and busting them both.
 

Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
What are the odds of getting a tripple split in a highly favorable position and not winning any splits. It has only happened to me twice once with 8,8,8 vs a 7 and once with 9,9,9 vs a 6.
What are the odds of getting a quadruple split in a six deck game? As well as two hands to double down on for a total of 6 times your bet? Only happened once to me. How about the odds of the longest shot hand the option to split 4 times and double down 4 times using correct basic stragedy.
 
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