What?! It's My Time to Lose?

adt_33

adt_33

Active Member
I've been to the casino three times so far, all in all winning $325 (profit), which is a lot in my book (I have a small book).

With all the nay-sayers and odds-preachers here (it's a love/hate relationship to us novices), I suppose you could tell me if I am bound to lose on my next trip. Once the cards are shuffled, I assume that everything is returned to "normal" casino odds, regardless if it's today or next week or a few minutes from now.

The almighty phrase "in the long run" rings in my head as true because I believe math to be reliable, but then again I clearly don't understand odds-math well enough.

So let's get to the question: Since my normal strategy is to bail when I get a modest profit, is this skewing the normal "in the long run" BS odds (ie "playing BS just means you'll lose less in the long run")? When I think of BJ-odds, I think fluctuation/variance, therefore I bail when the fluctuation is good for me. So are the odds currently as constant as ever or will I lose next time? Or is the "next time I'll surely lose" mentality a sign of the gambler's fallacy?
 
R

ranran

Well-Known Member
For what it's worth....

Losing streaks are a fact of life. I play the Strategy Trainer on this site. It allows you to choose rules and # of decks. Since it goes through ALL decks before shuffling, I should ALWAYS win...right? I wish it were so. There have been times where I can't win no matter what.

Look at it this way, losing streaks will happen, but so will winning streaks. Just keep going.
 
O

ortango

Well-Known Member
You flipped a coin three times and you got heads all three times. No one knows if you will get heads or tails the next time. Just know that with only BS, you will lose 1 more time out of 200.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
i love this question

adt_33 said:
So let's get to the question: Since my normal strategy is to bail when I get a modest profit, is this skewing the normal "in the long run" BS odds (ie "playing BS just means you'll lose less in the long run")? When I think of BJ-odds, I think fluctuation/variance, therefore I bail when the fluctuation is good for me. So are the odds currently as constant as ever or will I lose next time? Or is the "next time I'll surely lose" mentality a sign of the gambler's fallacy?
Click to expand...
your odds won't change regardless of when you bail. nor will the odds change for a novice, basic strategist or advantage player be affected by an exit strategy.
yep the "next time I'll surely lose" mentality is a sign of the gambler's fallacy.

i do have my own opinions about exit strategies.... check this link
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=16189&postcount=10

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
 
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