What Should I Expect?

[BlackjackMan312]

HI, Good Morning Everyone, Im Thinking of Spreading $50-$500 with the HI-LO Count in a 6 deck game with good rules about 75-80% pen, Never went that high before, what should I expect as far as results and heat?

Write back
Thanks!

 

[21forme]

You will have bigger swings than you've ever had before.
Don't be surprised if you drop 3-5K in 15-30 minutes. OTOH, don't be surprised if you win that much in a short period of time.
When you have a big bet out, don't let nerves get you as far as splitting, doubling, insurance bets, etc. Once at 6-8U, consider playing 2 hands.

Re heat, it depends where you play and how you play.

 

[BlackjackMan312]

I have a Session BR of $10,000 That should be enough right?

 

[moo321]

That spread probably isn't big enough for a 6 deck game with that level of penetration. You should be doing more like 1-15, although it depends on at what counts you are putting your bets out.

 

[EasyRhino]

A 10x spread on a 6D game would still be a moneymaker, but fairly small advantage, under 1%. This means that your short and medium term results are going to be virtually all variance.

As for trip bankroll, I don't have any hard numbers for you, but I just dropped $5k in about an hour and a half witha $300 max bet.

Unless your previous bet spread was very similar, I strongly recommend running some numbers just to get an idea of what you're up against. The qfit.com site, Blackjack Attack, or running a sim are a good way to go.

And as for heat... well, that depends on where you're playing. At some joints, it will freak people out. I think the best idea here would be to compare against what level you played at before.

 

[toastblows]

if its a indian casino with table max's of $500, which seems to be the norm ($500 or $1000 max is what i see) outside of AC/Vegas....then hell yes you will be center stage on the casinos radar. In Vegas, Mirage high roller room for example, probably not...unless you are busting them up like rainman :cool2:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

HI, Good Morning Everyone, Im Thinking of Spreading $50-$500 with the HI-LO Count in a 6 deck game with good rules about 75-80% pen, Never went that high before, what should I expect as far as results and heat?

Write back
Thanks!

The single most important thing you need to do is avoid playing negative counts. That will both improve your results and decrease heat, because you'll be spending less time at the table and it will be harder for them to get a fix on what you're doing.

 

[Kasi]

I have a Session BR of $10,000 That should be enough right?

Maybe for a session bankroll.

I hope your lifetime bankroll is alot more. As in, alot more. OK, probably more than that.

Just an opinion so whatever. I'm conservative lol.

Also assuming you're intending to play-all with a 1-10 spread.

Never ceases to amaze me that people willing to risk $10K, ask us what to expect.

Here's my question - what do YOU expect?

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

if its a indian casino with table max's of $500, which seems to be the norm ($500 or $1000 max is what i see) outside of AC/Vegas....then hell yes you will be center stage on the casinos radar. In Vegas, Mirage high roller room for example, probably not...unless you are busting them up like rainman :cool2:

i keep hearing about these limits, but in the 7 casinos i have been to, the lowest i have seen is $2000.. odd

The single most important thing you need to do is avoid playing negative counts. That will both improve your results and decrease heat, because you'll be spending less time at the table and it will be harder for them to get a fix on what you're doing.

just to give you an idea, i recently calculated my advantage for flat betting, playing only positive run counts, using hi-lo, and it was surprisingly decent, .3%.. so if you can get +.3% from not spreading at all, but playing ~40% of the hands, and then most of the books and people on here tell you spread at least 1-10 in shoes, then wouldnt that mean that wonging is much more powerful than spreading (apples and oranges, i know)? what do i know, but 1-8 while playing only positive run counts would probably get you at least 1%.. btw, my edge was calculated assuming .5% advantage per tc, which i know is actually not that accurate, but i couldnt find a non-graph that showed exact advantages at different true counts, and i would love it if somebody threw me a link

 

[toastblows]

i keep hearing about these limits, but in the 7 casinos i have been to, the lowest i have seen is $2000.. odd

The reservations i frequent once in a while.... usually the top table...or top 2 tables are 100min/1000max during high traffic (fri/sat night). otherwise you are looking at 50min/500max if its an off peak time. Definetly and eye opener in places like vegas when you see "table min 25, table max 10000"...:laugh:

 

[EasyRhino]

yep, I thought it was a litte surprising when I saw a full slot of $5k chocolate chips on the $25 tables at Mandalay Bay... didn't have anyone actually using them.

($300k in that tray, according to the pit, btw).

 

[Paradox]

Listen to the monkey

Either back count and Wong in at TC+2 dropping out at TC 0 or play off the top and leave at TC-1. If this is not possible then use a white rabbit approach, but as the wise ape wrote, do not play all. $10K is enough for the hour you are there. Or the half hour if you are playing hand held. ;-)

I hope this helps. Cheers,
Paradox

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Either back count and Wong in at TC+2 dropping out at TC 0 or play off the top and leave at TC-1. If this is not possible then use a white rabbit approach, but as the wise ape wrote, do not play all. $10K is enough for the hour you are there. Or the half hour if you are playing hand held. ;-)

I hope this helps. Cheers,
Paradox

if you want to play more than half the hands, i am guessing here, but i would choose the latter, that being play everything >= -1 TC.. i thought that playing all positive counts, no matter how small (+1/6 TC), would have me playing at least 45% of the hands, but i think its closer to 40%, and i dont understand why its not like 49%, because isnt the frequency of hands over and under 0 the same? we arent talking about advantage here, we are just talking about hands playing over and under 0, but not including 0.. you would think they would be 50/50 exactly right? i probably read a frequency chart wrong or something, it probably is 49% for >= +1 RC