What's the pct...
- Thread starter JAXBOY
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Mikeaber
Well-Known Member
How would you know if you'd encountered another AP if other AP is good at it? I mean, how would you know if the other person was counting or riding your coattails with bets? I've had that happen at least twice that I can recall and to this day, do not know for sure that they were just copying my bets after watching success on large bets I've placed. And, quite honestly, I'm reluctant to catch that person out away from the table and say anything that might be noticed by personnel at the casino.JAXBOY said:
In Motorcycle Circles, the 1%'ers are those "outlaw bikers." I wonder if we fall in that 1% category as BJ players? I suspect we represent far less than 1% though.
zengrifter
Banned
I'd say less than 0.001 (1/10th of one percent). zg
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
i think thats an interesting question. i don't know the answer but i have considered that question when i thought about how to go about putting on my camo. i came to the conclusion that most people who have the guts to play blackjack have probably at least a D- grade for basic strategy. the regular locals probably rank a grade of C- for basic strategy. i also figure that most anyone who sits down at the blackjack table is at least aware of the existance of the concept of card counting and the viability of it. with that in mind you got to figure that there are a fairly substantial number of people at the tables who are trying to wing it at ap but are for real just not cutting the mustard. the way i figure it most people at the tables are by know means stupid but at the same time most are not thoroughly schooled in ap methods and most are probably to darned lazy to put in the practice and discipline that it takes to suceed. so the percentage of genuine ap's would be very low indeed.JAXBOY said:
by the way i have infact ran into a few ap's while on road trips to the very locals and tables that you mentioned.
best regards,
mr fr0g
About a week ago I ran into another counter woning into a table at the exact time I jumped in. After the shoe was finished and I had walked away, he came up and flat out asked, "so what counting system do you use?" He was the only counter I have ever ran into... I have to agree we are very rare.
bj bob
Well-Known Member
The few....the proud.... (The paranoid?)
If Zg's estimations are correct (and I see no reason to doubt them) He is saying that one in every thousand of all BJ players at any given time are at a table in Nevada etc. So what he hell are the casinos thinking? They spend thousands of $s in sophisticated equipment, cut their decks, shoes short to shuffle, probably carry extra security, in short, causing excessive "down time" on their tables to thwart a minicule pct. of AP's. This, folks, sounds like bad management. If you consider that, at the very best, a counter may "eak out" 5 units /hr. playing 1D @ 1-5 spread, meanwhile the average idiot is blowing 2-5% to the house. I'll take that action any day as a casino owner. Just do the math. One final observation...Sage et al. have given too much credit to the average player. Just consider all the morons playing at the 6:5 tables. They're coming out of the woodwork! So I think that we, indeed are a rare group. especially if you consider those of us who are just learning, those who have some trouble keeping the count, and those who use a substandard system, as well as those who are under BR'd, all of which lower the average expected EV.
If Zg's estimations are correct (and I see no reason to doubt them) He is saying that one in every thousand of all BJ players at any given time are at a table in Nevada etc. So what he hell are the casinos thinking? They spend thousands of $s in sophisticated equipment, cut their decks, shoes short to shuffle, probably carry extra security, in short, causing excessive "down time" on their tables to thwart a minicule pct. of AP's. This, folks, sounds like bad management. If you consider that, at the very best, a counter may "eak out" 5 units /hr. playing 1D @ 1-5 spread, meanwhile the average idiot is blowing 2-5% to the house. I'll take that action any day as a casino owner. Just do the math. One final observation...Sage et al. have given too much credit to the average player. Just consider all the morons playing at the 6:5 tables. They're coming out of the woodwork! So I think that we, indeed are a rare group. especially if you consider those of us who are just learning, those who have some trouble keeping the count, and those who use a substandard system, as well as those who are under BR'd, all of which lower the average expected EV.
bj bob
Well-Known Member
Simply put,
My point is that, if there are that few card counters in action, the casinos have nothing to worry about in the over all picture. They're still raking in historically high profits and would probably make even more if they loosened up the speed of their games. It seems to me that "perception" in this case outweighs the "reality" of their view of counters.
My point is that, if there are that few card counters in action, the casinos have nothing to worry about in the over all picture. They're still raking in historically high profits and would probably make even more if they loosened up the speed of their games. It seems to me that "perception" in this case outweighs the "reality" of their view of counters.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
Mike i think you've hit upon a good point there. and BJ+Bob as well.Mikeaber said:
from the camo perspective the truth of these points should fill us with a good measure of self confidence about the battle ground that we stand on with casinos in general. the point being those casino powers that be with a reasonable level of sensability realize that counters in general (save for big sophisticated teams) are not a severe threat to their bottom line. so from that perspective we can at least breath a bit easier under our camo or in other words as long as we don't rub it in the noses of the pit critters faces we probably tend to live in a live and let live world. but what we do need to be vigilant against is as you describe the anal minded types. i call them jerks. just about every group has a jerk or two lurking about. those are the ones you want to watch out for.
best regards,
mr fr0g
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