When does a Casino notice gaming losses?

Martin Gayle

Martin Gayle

Well-Known Member
I am curious if anyone knows when a casino will notice a loss through cheats, dwindling civilians or high stakes AP? I realise that the size of the store will be a huge factor but how much of a drop from quarter to quarter, month to month, week to week, shift to shift will a casino notice.

For example, I know a casino expects to take 0.75% on BJ tables, if they are getting hit by an organised team with inside people when will the take notice? When profits hit 0.74? 0.5?

So to phrase the question differently what is a standard deviation for a casino gaming profit and what is reasonable for a casino to shrug it off and say "cards just have been falling that way"?
 
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ccibball50

Well-Known Member
good Question

That is a good question, but I believe that the average player playes at an eight percent disadvantage. Someone posted earnings for the month and the blackjack tables for the month among all the games ranged from about eight to eleven percent. The results however do include all games including six to five single deck, which is a terrible game.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
A Really Great Question:

I respectfully beg to differ with the last two posts, by Marvin Gayle and by ccibball50.

"I know a casino expects to take 0.75% on BJ tables"

You are thinking about the House Advantage for Basic Strategy players.

That is not a meaningful variable here.

Which brings us to:

" ... eight percent disadvantage."

For the correct figure (see Griffin, Theory of Blackjack)

The average patron plays at about a 2%-3% disadvantage,
Unskilled players play as badly as with a 5% disadvantage.

Footnote: Dr. Griffin found that Atlantic City players were much closer to Basic Strategy than Las Vegas players.

The only correct way to look at this question is the way that the casino's accountants do.

You need two figures.

the Handle and the Drop.

The first is the total amount bet at the game.
The second is how much of that money is lost.

I recently posted elsewhere on this site a link to the current month's Revenue Report for (all) Atlantic City casinos.

That document is very enlightening.
I encourage you to read it.

It shows the figures for ALL casino games, including non-traditional blackjack.

If you do not want to read the actual figures, here is what you need to know:

The "hold" figure ranged from a low of 9.6% to a high of 19.6%.

Different venues, with different rules, also have different levels of skill displayed by the patrons.

Typically, resorts destinations have the least skilled players.

That aside, in general, this figure is most commonly found to be between 12% and 16% for (most) good games.

The ultimate answer to this question will be found by determining the Standard Deviation for a casino's revenues over time; but that is beyond my meager ability.

Needless to say, every casino records these crucial figures for every pit and for every table, so they know if some of their more extreme figures are due to a "whale" getting lucky or whatever. Also, seasonal patterns and economic factors are taken into consideration, as are extraneous factors like hurricanes and "no smoking bans", and increased local competition.
 
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ccibball50

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
I respectfully beg to differ with the last two posts, by Marvin Gayle and by ccibball50.

"I know a casino expects to take 0.75% on BJ tables"

You are thinking about the House Advantage for Basic Strategy players.

That is not a meaningful variable here.

Which brings us to:

" ... eight percent disadvantage."

For the correct figure (see Griffin, Theory of Blackjack)

The average patron plays at about a 2%-3% disadvantage,
Unskilled players play as badly as with a 5% disadvantage.

Footnote: Dr. Griffin found that Atlantic City players were much closer to Basic Strategy than Las Vegas players.

The only correct way to look at this question is the way that the casino's accountants do.

You need two figures.

the Handle and the Drop.

The first is the total amount bet at the game.
The second is how much of that money is lost.

I recently posted elsewhere on this site a link to the current month's Revenue Report for (all) Atlantic City casinos.

That document is very enlightening.
I encourage you to read it.

It shows the figures for ALL casino games, including non-traditional blackjack.

If you do not want to read the actual figures, here is what you need to know:

The "hold" figure ranged from a low of 9.6% to a high of 19.6%.

Different venues, with different rules, also have different levels of skill displayed by the patrons.

Typically, resorts destinations have the least skilled players.

That aside, in general, this figure is most commonly found to be between 12% and 16% for (most) good games.

The ultimate answer to this question will be found by determining the Standard Deviation for a casino's revenues over time; but that is beyond my meager ability.

Needless to say, every casino records these crucial figures for every pit and for every table, so they know if some of their more extreme figures are due to a "whale" getting lucky or whatever. Also, seasonal patterns and economic factors are taken into consideration, as are extraneous factors like hurricanes and "no smoking bans", and increased local competition.
Click to expand...
You may be right on that issue 8% was something I read, can't really remember where so I cant really back it up, so you are probably correct Flash.
 
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Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
Casino notice losses immediatelly!

The pit boss is keeping track of how much each indivual wins and loses so if a player wins a few thousand dollars the casino notices because winners are rare. The casino propably notices the loses when they take the drop boxes and count there money.
 
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davidpom

Banned
See all those staff on the casino floor? They're all watching the games. The dealer watches the players, the supervisor watches the dealers, the pit boss watches the supervisors, the table games manager watches the pit bosses, the casino manager watches the table games manager... and the "eye in the sky" watches everything and everyone.

If you're winning, the casino knows it. But if its small change, and within normal expectation lines, they're probably not bothered. If you're winning thousands, or betting with wild swings and winning, then chances are they're noticing right there and then. Ever been at a game when the pit boss phone rings, and next you know it the supervisor is staying at your table rather than circulating? They're watching you. Ever had security stand behind you at a table (I have - it's horrible)? They're watching you. The casino notices winning immediately. But they often don't do anything about it immediately.

1) they figure if you stay longer and play that you might give it back.
2) winning is a normal part of the cycle.
3) if you're a regular player they're possibly less bothered - because they know who you are, where to find you - and expect you to come back.
4) overall, the casino is probably not too bothered when you do win - as long as they are up on their tables etc overall for the day / period.

You're watched from the second you enter that casino until you withdraw. Casinos notice everything. :)
 
Martin Gayle

Martin Gayle

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the help all, I had looked at the AC numbers before I posted this thread. Flash, the numbers are very, very insightful I wish more of my local casinos made them more public. I have been thinking about this before but it inspired my post.

Some of the anwsers have strayed...so for clarity sake, I don't care about heat, I don't care about what the pit or eye in the sky is watching, I want to know at what point will a casino accountant that comes back after a two week vacation, with no terror-canes or crippling recession, looks at the bottom line and says, "What the hell happened here!!!!!"
 
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