When doing deck estimation...
- Thread starter 21forme
- Start date
Sonny
Well-Known Member
I look at the height of the cards. You can tell by looking at the size of the stack.21forme said:
It depends. For TC conversions in pitch games I'll use half-deck estimations but in shoe games I'll use full-decks. For shuffle tracking I'll use whatever size works best (might be 3/4-decks, quarter-decks or whatever).21forme said:
-Sonny-
When I do deck estimation I only look at the cards and not the discard tray. Once you know what the increments of a deck look like and are sure of it, nothing else really matters. I estimate to the 1/4 deck, I feel there are far less mistakes the more accurate you become with your estimation. That means really training yourself to the finest degree. As I've learned from reading people's posts about this, most feel its fine to just estimate to the nearest deck. Well that may be so, but what I've also found is your skills are only that of what you train for. If you train for the minimal amount thats exactly what you'll get. Based on what I've seen from people who broadly estimate, they're are usually wildly inaccurate. Couple that with the fact they've shut themselves off from ever performing any of the more advanced techniques, and I think most are just short changing themselves. Also remember the closer to perfect you are the more forgiving a slight error might be.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
i only play six (and sometimes eight deck) games. so i just estimate to the nearest full deck. i leave stacks of cards laying around my home. the stacks are by one deck, two decks, three decks and four decks. that way i'm seeing them all the time through out the day. i don't really look at the pile in relation to the empty space in the tray but according to the height of the stack mainly.21forme said:
Maybe its because the way we bet is different than most, but I find it to be quite limited to only be able to estimate to the nearest deck even in 6 and 8 deck games. Believe it or not even though you are trying to give yourself a broader way in which to play, making mistakes can be more costly. Say you have a RC of 12 with 2.5 decks left. With a 1/4 deck estimate the TC is 4.8, with full deck estimating of say 3 decks the TC is 4. Almost a full unit difference but still okay. But what if the decks remaining was 2.25 with a RC of 5 and you looked at the decks remaining and mistakenly saw 2.5, so than went with your estimation of 3 decks. My TC is just about 2.25, yours is just over 1.5. Most likely at this point you are missing out on a betting opportunity because your TC is missing the mark. There is also the chance of missing or messing up indice plays by being off on your TC by close to a unit or more consistently. I know it seems like splitting hairs but there are so many small things that don't take huge efforts that can ultimately put your game on a different level. Of all the professionals that I've played with, there are very few, and none of the MIT members, that would ever consider only estimating to the full deck. I have to believe there is a reason for that.