When the count isn't working the way it should...

[Mimosine]

Two recent sessions from my very limitted "career" at counting really hit home the notion of standard deviation.

in both sessions my local joint was packed and required me waiting for a long time to get a seat.

session 1: I sit down and the count tanks, i mean really tanks, to -30 (IRC -20) in less than 2 rounds. I'm not sure what the TC for this would be, let's say roughly -4. I decided to just play it through and surprisingly won hand after hand after hand. It was absolutely unbelieveable. The count never broke RC +2.

session 2: Had three shoes that broke through to +12 with 1 deck to go before the cut (roughly 80% pen, so 2 total decks to go so roughly TC=+4?).
And.... I couldn't win a damn thing. Maybe I would win 2 of 5 hands with big bets. Also got dealt about 12 hard 16s vs. 10 with only 2 BJs to soften the blow. It was a pathetic night, really brutal. But through it all, losing a small chunk of change I just accepted what all this preparation has taught me: that these are the breaks. And having gone through these roller coasters, i realized that I could play first base, count down the table before making my playing decisions (a huge step forward for me), make most index plays rapidly, could evaluate multi-card hard 16 vs. 10 rapidly, and carry on a modest conversation with the very talkative 2nd baseman, despite his jibber jabber about flow, bust cards, etc.

i also saw every single person at session 2 with a BJ vs. ace take even money. every single person! The only time i put out insurance was when i had a 14 vs. and A, they guy next to me followed my lead. everyone else at the table probably thought we were crazy, well we were right and won.

fiscal disaster, but I think the lessons learned were worth the cost and again only make me want to play more and play better.

 

[zengrifter]

session 1: I sit down and the count tanks, i mean really tanks, to -30 (IRC -20) in less than 2 rounds. I'm not sure what the TC for this would be, let's say roughly -4. I decided to just play it through and surprisingly won hand after hand after hand. It was absolutely unbelieveable. The count never broke RC +2.

Should NOT have played. Do NOT play through.

session 2: Had three shoes that broke through to +12 with 1 deck to go before the cut (roughly 80% pen, so 2 total decks to go so roughly TC=+4?). And.... I couldn't win a damn thing.

Did the right thing - play within your pre-detirmined bet-sizing, don't be spooked by losing hands. zg

 

[Mimosine]

Should NOT have played. Do NOT play through.


Did the right thing - play within your pre-detirmined bet-sizing, don't be spooked by losing hands. zg

i know i shouldn't have played through, and i sat out some hands until things turned around.... i know, i shouldn't have played through....


despite getting crapped on in favorable conditions I stuck to the game plan and raised bets, which getting crapped on so well served as good cover for "loss chasing." I didn't flinch once with my bets, or doubles, etc...

leaving for the night i decided to wong in on a shoe that went positive with a few rounds to go only to lose 4 hands in a row heads up. it was beautiful. and i don't regret it at all, i am at peace with the tables. but not my bankroll!

 

[MEDITANK]

Mimosine, did you surrender those hard 16's when the TC was that high? I always do unless the TC is -3 or more. Another great favorable rule about Barona very hard to pass up that others here don't offer. The first thing I noticed about Barona is the blackjack hall of fame on the wall as you take that moving sidewalk thing down the long hallway. Barona actually admires these BJ pioneers like Snyder, Wong, etc. But at the same time, offered them all an agreement for lifetime comps on everything if they agree to not play there table games. Kind of a love hate relationship. Still odd, I had read on two different websites, that barona WELCOMES AP's. I found that odd until I started losing also during >+3TC's at Barona which are few and far between. I still believe that barona has done some sort of research into their shuffle procedure(s) that eliminate clumping. This sounds like voodoo, but I still believe it to be true. The great penetration and the wonderful accomodating rules are very difficult and tempting to pass up, but now I am beginning to understand why. Sorry about your loss Mimosine. Also too bad, is that baronas dealers are incredibly slow. A counters dream.:cry:

 

[zengrifter]

I still believe that barona has done some sort of research into their shuffle procedure(s) that eliminate clumping. This sounds like voodoo, but I still believe it to be true. ....Also too bad, is that baronas dealers are incredibly slow. A counters dream.:cry:

A scientifically biased shuffle is highly unlikely, though I did find just such a thing going on at Binions in the late 90s - and I won a small debate with Snyder about it. zg

 

[MEDITANK]

A scientifically biased shuffle is highly unlikely, though I did find just such a thing going on at Binions in the late 90s - and I won a small debate with Snyder about it. zg

Thanks Zen, I wanted to bounce this improbable theory off of you and the other veterans here to test this. I am far from being an expert especially with shuffles, but if you add up the BJ HOF, the red carpet treatment for AP's, the low fluctuations of positive TC's, with frequent negative TC that never recover, something is a bit off. Negative variance streak? Who knows. I don't have the unlimited BR to find out nor do I care to as I have other places to play but the table mins are a bit high out here too so I have to protect my BR. The cool thing about Barona with its LS, is that the $5 min become 2.50 to conserve the BR during those losing streaks. Cuts the losses in half.

 

[Mimosine]

This sounds like voodoo, but I still believe it to be true. The great penetration and the wonderful accomodating rules are very difficult and tempting to pass up, but now I am beginning to understand why.

take no offense, but to me it sounds like voodoo with that said I really have no knowledge of shuffle technique, the effect on composition, or anything related to shuffling at all, so i really have no valid opinion on the matter - maybe at best a feeling, which in this case is opposite to yours.

 

[MEDITANK]

take no offense, but to me it sounds like voodoo with that said I really have no knowledge of shuffle technique, the effect on composition, or anything related to shuffling at all, so i really have no valid opinion on the matter - maybe at best a feeling, which in this case is opposite to yours.

none taken. Just venting right now because I can only break even at best there and lose overall. I always win at the other casinos. Maybe there is a huge magnetic field inside of barona that sucks all of the face cards towards the rear of the cut card. Who knows. :laugh:

 

[EasyRhino]

What blows me away the most is when the count is very high, and I get something awful, like a hard 14 vs 10. I'm thinking there's no way that I can win this hand. But since I don't know a KO index for standing on that, I go ahead an hit. And sometimes I get a little card! And sometimes the dealer has a little card in the hole! And I win! What the hell is that?!

I tend to forget that there's still at least 50 or so low cards in the shoe, and that it's still basically gambling, when it comes right down to it.

frequent negative TC that never recover...

I get a normal number of high counts at Barona, so obviously the only logical explanation is that the high cards are time-shifting to my trips.

 

[MEDITANK]

I think you got it easyrhino! Time warp! I knew it was something like that! All of the high cards meander out of the shoe via timewarp only to reappear while you play! Hey, that isn't fair!

I know the feeling, had that happen to me during a great shoe last night. The RC was escalating like a freight train with no brakes. 6 people at the table, 3 full hands and hits included with only one face card?????!!!! How does that happen? At the end of the shoe, the TC was still at +7. A full two decks left of fun and joy were cut off rudely. Made most of my profit on that one shoe last night and wished there were more. This specific casino uses an ASM. Hard 14 vs a 10 during a high TC is when you wish that casino had the LS rule! Almost suicide to hit that. Only thing I can tell you is that the tens are probably hiding behind that nagging piece of plastic. If one can safely assume uniform distribution behind that cutcard, then the odds must catch up sooner than later. If they are all behind that cutcard, then you are really not in a true high TC, but heck, how are we supposed to know? In that case, we are overbetting the real available cards left to be played. Scary thought.

What blows me away the most is when the count is very high, and I get something awful, like a hard 14 vs 10. I'm thinking there's no way that I can win this hand. But since I don't know a KO index for standing on that, I go ahead an hit. And sometimes I get a little card! And sometimes the dealer has a little card in the hole! And I win! What the hell is that?!

I tend to forget that there's still at least 50 or so low cards in the shoe, and that it's still basically gambling, when it comes right down to it.


I get a normal number of high counts at Barona, so obviously the only logical explanation is that the high cards are time-shifting to my trips.

 

[Mimosine]

What blows me away the most is when the count is very high, and I get something awful, like a hard 14 vs 10. I'm thinking there's no way that I can win this hand. But since I don't know a KO index for standing on that, I go ahead an hit.

maybe in the appendix there is a chart for 14 v 10 but the "preferred" chart says the following:

high counts KO says surrender (at pivot point) for 14v10, otherwise it says hit.

without surrender, 16v9 (pivot) 16v10(key) 15v10(pivot) are STAND.
along with 12v2 and 12v3 (pivot).