Which betting spreads bring less heat

[kemperpoker]

I have been a successful card counter now for about 5 years but I am a "weekend warrior" only logging in about 200 hours a year but showing a conservative 52.00 hr. rate ( not including travel expenses) over that period of time.

My game of choice is DD 25 to 150 or higher if I don't sense heat and I find "reasons" to sit out if deck goes -9 (TC) or worse.

I play Kansas City area and Las Vegas

My business may be in danger of going under (after 25 years) so I may move to Las Vegas to undertake Blackjack as a income. So here is my question (directed at the pros who do this for a living) which of the 2 betting spreads I will list do you recommend and any other advice.

Overall information and bankroll...
30,000. bankroll
50.00 to 60.00 hr. expected income
4 hours a day
45 to 90 min. in any one casino on any shift
3 to 5 months between visits based on heat
57% PEN

DD
Flat bet of 25.00
sit out on TC of -8 or worse
+1 25.00
+2 50.00
+3 75.00
+4/5 100.00
+6 125.00
+7/8 150.00
+9 up 200.00

This only shows a rate of only 47.00 hr. but the ROR is a low 1.4%

Or this one....

DD
flat bet 2 hands 50.00 each
go to one hand of 25.00 on TC -4 or worse
sit out on TC -8 or worse
+2/3/4 75.00 each 2 hands
+5 100.00 each 2 hands
+6 125.00 each 2 hands
+7/8 150.00 each 2 hands
+9 or better 200.00 each 2 hands

This shows a much better rate of 84.00 hr. but ROR up to 9.5%

It would be ideal to find a in between but I feel a quarter min table is necessary because of the heavy green or black action and almost all casinos demand 50.00 min on 2 hands.

So which has the best chance of not raising alarm bells?
Or any other thoughts....
Thanks in advance.

 

[Sucker]

Overall information and bankroll...
30,000. bankroll
50.00 to 60.00 hr. expected income
4 hours a day
45 to 90 min. in any one casino on any shift
3 to 5 months between visits based on heat
57% PEN

There are about 75 casinos in Las Vegas. Probably about 2/3 to 3/4 of them even HAVE double deck (or single deck). Of these, most of them are unplayable, due to poor penetration, the 6/5 rule, or other factors. Off the top of my head, I'd say that there are about 15-20 places you'll be able to play. For your strategy of 4 hrs a day, 45-90 minutes per house,and 3-5 mo between visits; you'll hit 'em all in less than a week, so you'll be out of action for ALMOST the next 3-5 mos.

So which has the best chance of not raising alarm bells?

Depending upon your act, both strategies will probably generate pretty close to the same amount of heat, or lack thereof. Well; not really - the second one will probably generate more heat, simply because you'll be betting more money.

So which has the best chance of not raising alarm bells?
Or any other thoughts....
Thanks in advance.

If you're planning on moving to Vegas to count cards for a living - DON'T!
Almost every single AP in the world has more going for him than JUST counting cards. Don't even THINK about doing this for a living until you've mastered at least SOME of the more advanced strategies. Sorry to be so brutally honest.

 

[kemperpoker]

74 casinos in las vegas have DD, in my scouting about 15 have less than 60% pen.
another 120 are located in 8 hot spots in the US
( I didnt say I had to stay in Vegas)

I dont like the time involved in "wonging" but I can do it. (for the no DD casinos)

I was a craps dealer in the early 80's but the job market sucks right now. But I do plan on looking for work, just not counting on it.

Thanks for taking the time to reply.

 

[kewljason]

My thoughts.

1.) Wonging out at TC of -9 ?? That is a pretty high threshold.

2.) You are doing the spread to two hands amounts wrong. If you are going to spread to two hands the total of the two hands should equal 150% of your single hand bet for that count. This will get more money on the table at the same RoR. So if @ +5 you would normally bet $100 then you should bet two hands of $75 to remain at the same risk, not two of $100.

3.) That being said. I know many on this board advocate spreading to two hands, but I have found spreading to two hands to be the single most heat generating factor in Vegas. Even more so that the spread itself.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

But it sounds like he isn't spreading to 2 hands per se, but flatly going with two hands unless the TC gets real bad. Consistently playing 2 hands must drastically reduce the heat associated with spreading two hands, would it not?

 

[kewljason]

But it sounds like he isn't spreading to 2 hands per se, but flatly going with two hands unless the TC gets real bad. Consistently playing 2 hands must drastically reduce the heat associated with spreading two hands, would it not?

My apologies. I didn't thoroughly read his post. Yes, playing two hands all the time would certainly be better than spreading, heatwise.

 

[Mr Twentyone]

Put your max out at +3, where you have 1% and 200 top bets, half kelly is plenty!

Run a sim for this ...

+0< = 25
+1 = 50
+2 = 100
+3> = 150

 

[kemperpoker]

Put your max out at +3, where you have 1% and 200 top bets, half kelly is plenty!

Run a sim for this ...

+0< = 25
+1 = 50
+2 = 100
+3> = 150

I see your point but I believe the biggest indicator of counting is your starting bet vs how often you raise your bet...I would be putting 150.00 out on a fairly common basis...Is it a red flag?

 

[Mr Twentyone]

Not necessarily, whichever way you look at it your bet is going to correllate with the count, but the spread i mentioned will net you a higher % and turnover back.

I can just advise put a decent act on and dance around like a fool if possible and dont play for too long at a time.