Winning without Wonging

[jee_pack]

I'm trying to put it all together as I learn to count, and I want to be able to just sit down at a shoe without wonging it, for longevity sakes and also to be able to combine that with wonging later.

I tryed a little system, but it didn't seem to work, cuse out of the many shoes I played, only rarely did I bet 1 unit bet.

In theory the calculation of the bet is TC minus TABLE EDGE and then multiplied by Unit bet. At my locall casino, its 8 decks, so it takes a long time for the count to fluctuate. Plus the penetration will be consequently worse than any other games because there's more decks. And the table edge is about 0.45398% which is equal to about 1 in TC as +1 in TC is usually equal to +.5% in edge. So I do my calculations: 2 TC - 1 (house edge) = 1. 1 x unit bet = bet your unit bet. So this means, in theory, I should be betting less than my unit bet when the TC is lower than 2... But this confused me, I might have it wrong.

So how do I maximize the profit?
-I would like to set up a system with a 1-4 unit spread.
-I would like longevity so nothing too sketchy

What I tryed in a simulation (manual simulation):
-Leave the deck after losing 2 in a row if TC is -2 at any point in the shoe.
-After 2 decks have been dealt, if the TC is not over 1 (50/50 odds against the house), if the last few rounds didn't make me win money, leave the table (shuffle) after a losing streak and look for a new shoe.
-To bet lower than unit bet when TC is lower than 2, I had set my spread as follow, bet table minimum (15) and when TC = 2, bet 20, TC = 3, bet 35$, TC = 4, bet 50$, TC = 5, bet 65$....

with these conditions, it happends maybe twice in 2 hours that I bet 20, never higher, and mostly lost when I was betting 20$, and had to wait a long time before getting to bet 20$ again....


Does anyone have any tips on how to maximise profits with a system where you decide when to leave a table, when to skip a few hands, when to stay at a table, and what to bet when TC is 2 or higher and what to bet when its lower than TC=2 at the beginning of the shoe.....

Thanks in advance

 

[ChefJJ]

First off, I'll say that I do not Wong (excepting well-time bathroom & cell phone breaks), I am not a "pro", and am not a high roller.

That being said, you will probably hear the point echoed that a 1-4 spread in a 8D game is substandard. By the book & math, it is. However, it seems that having a smaller spread just means that your advantage is cut and your betting efficiency is slimmed. But it's not the end of the world.

An idea to vary your betting spread would be to approach it in terms of a Base Bet, which would be your wager when the count is below whatever point you have designated. Then, you could fit whatever spread you are using from that point up to your Max Bet, which would come out when the TC is at or above a certain point.

I've been working with the KO counting system these days, so I've been able to tweak the counting scale with my betting scale. For your approach, you can do the same...and more than likely there will be some more qualified people here that can be more mathematically detailed, I'm sure.

Without Wonging, getting up to that Max Bet can be few and far between...but I think that is normal. You can either backcount & Wong, or play it out with a generous spread, balls of steel, and well-timed breaks when the count is steadily garbage.

good luck

 

[sagefr0g]

for an eight deck shoe i don't think a 1:4 spread is going to give you a chance to overcome loss's due to your waiting bets.
wonging in mainly is what could help.

 

[Mimosine]

as other's have stated, 1-4 won't cut it. in fact 1-4 is about the bare minimum you could use in a 6D game to just get above break even.

If you're stuck with a 1-4 spread, then I would strongly recommend that you wong out of bad counts ALWAYS, and at the very least whenever you enter a casino you must backcount into a good 1st shoe, one in which the TC is roughly +1.5, where you would be betting 2 units. This is usually pretty easy to pull off, espcially on your first shoe of the night/day, it just looks to the pit like you are getting ready to dive in and that you have some reservations, nerves about playing.

Upon wonging out, go grab a drink, take a leak, check your voicemail, and then try really hard to wong in, or at the very least sit down at a fresh shoe. if the count tanks again, you absolutely must get up, if it makes you feel better say something to the effect "that this dealer is too hot" and find another table, repeat process. if you are in play all conditions, you should expect to sit through several shoes where you will only ever raise your bet to a 2 unit, late in the shoe, and this seldom will recoup your "waiting bet."

if you must be in a playall situation, and want to come out ahead in 8D then you'll need at least a 1-7 or 8 spread, and your winnings will be modest using even this.

 

[Sonny]

So I do my calculations: 2 TC - 1 (house edge) = 1. 1 x unit bet = bet your unit bet. So this means, in theory, I should be betting less than my unit bet when the TC is lower than 2... But this confused me, I might have it wrong.

No, you have it right. With a house edge that big you’ll need to wait until a TC of +2 to start raising your bets. When the TC is less than +2 you should bet as little as possible.

with these conditions, it happends maybe twice in 2 hours that I bet 20, never higher, and mostly lost when I was betting 20$, and had to wait a long time before getting to bet 20$ again....

Yup, that’s the life of a “Play All” player. You make the minimum bet about 80% of the time and slowly “bleed” your bankroll. When those few big bets finally hit the table you are very likely to lose them, then have to wait another hour or so for another opportunity. That’s why Wonging is so important. You aren’t bleeding all those minimum bets and you can find more positive hands per hour. It might allow you to raise your stakes as well, which will increase your profit even more.

Does anyone have any tips on how to maximise profits with a system where you decide when to leave a table, when to skip a few hands, when to stay at a table, and what to bet when TC is 2 or higher and what to bet when its lower than TC=2 at the beginning of the shoe.....

First of all, playing every hand in an 8D game is a waste of time. Using a measly 1-4 spread is even worse. You can barely beat a 1D game with such a tiny spread. You probably don’t have any advantage at all in an 8D game playing like that. You will either need to use a much bigger spread (at least 1-16 or 1-20) or start Wonging more aggressively. And forget about those superstitious reasons for leaving a table. Don’t worry about “if the last few rounds didn't make me win money” and don’t wait for “a losing streak” or losing two hands in a row. When the TC is –2 get up and walk away no matter what. If the count is still –1 after two decks have been dealt, get up and find another table. With such a small spread you can’t afford to sit around giving away so many minimum bets.

As you can see, shoe games can be very tough to beat using straight counting. Playing for small stakes means that you will have to play aggressively if you want to succeed.

-Sonny-

 

[ChefJJ]

You probably don’t have any advantage at all in an 8D game playing like that. You will either need to use a much bigger spread (at least 1-16 or 1-20) or start Wonging more aggressively.

-Sonny-

In an 8D game with good rules (DOA, DAS) and 75% pen, what is the difference in edge between using a 1-10, 1-16, and 1-20 spread?

Thanks.

good luck

 

[jee_pack]

How do you do your Bet calculation? why is it that at 1,5 of TC you bet 2 units?

 

[jee_pack]

Honestly, does the sread change anything? I mean does the TC ever go over 5 in an 8 deck game?

 

[ChefJJ]

Honestly, does the sread change anything? I mean does the TC ever go over 5 in an 8 deck game?

Not very often at all.

The spread does matter...the mathematics of it are of question to me. Hopefully, M can help us with that a bit. A 1-4 spread in an 8D game is miniscule in the long run (I've won sessions with it in the past), but I am curious to know what the difference of 1-8 from 1-16 from 1-20 is, and whether it is "worth it" to have a 15 or 20 unit bet out there when it could be 5 or 10.

good luck

 

[EasyRhino]

From what I can recall of the crapload of tables in blackjack attack (eyes... still... spinning).

1-4 spread is still a money losing proposition in an 8D game. Heck, personally I've tried some 1-4 spread in a good doubledeck game, and been concerned that I'm being too much of a pussy.

8D is demonstrably worse than 6D. Even though I wouldn't have thought so much, since "it's only two more decks". An interminable number of waiting bets are placed.

EV does go up, substantially, by increasing your spread. However, it increases even more substantially, by wonging out of negative counts. (In the simple example, imagine just sitting the table and simply not place a bet when the count is negative, you're just comparing hands seen to hands played).

It seems that most of the time, you can get away with a little bit of wonging "for free". If the crowd is decent enough, you can probably backcount and wong in on a positive count. And there's always taking the occassional break halfway through a shoe when it's negtive. Also, you can spread to two hands in positive counts, which will help eat good cards from other players.

But you'll still want more than a 1-4 spread.

 

[Kasi]

Honestly, does the sread change anything? I mean does the TC ever go over 5 in an 8 deck game?

The real question should be at what level of penetration since it will happen a lot more frequently if it's a 7/8 vs a 6/8 game.

But, like u say, it's not a whole lot. But yet at 6/8, all a 1-8 vs a 1-16 would do is raise your average bet a couple bucks (say 20% while you are doubling your spread) , and double ur $'s won with more variance.

But at 7/8 penetration you may want to consider doubling your unit size at 1-16 or tripling it at 1-8.

In a play-all game.