Won $110 in 2 hours yesterday.

[redlinegts85]

I'm a rookie and I was betting the minimum most of the time ($5), so I think I did fairly good.

Rules: 8 deck, dealers hits soft 17, peek

I was up $150. The last hand I put a $20 bet in and got an 7,4. Dealer turned over an Ace (dammit!), but I still followed the basic strategy and doubled down. Unfortunately I only got a 2, and he had a 19. Lost $40.

I followed the strategy about 95% of the time (forgot what to do on some hands, need to study more). I was surprised at how many players don't know anything about basic strategy. Some people were losing like $100 in 30 minutes.

So do you think I did pretty good? I'm going back again tonight so hopefully I do better. I always expect to lose though.

 

[shadroch]

Congrats on a nice trip.
You did better than you should have.Just as you experianced positive variance,expect negative variance.
You can,and should,bring the BS chart to the table and consult it whenever you are not 100% certain.

 

[redlinegts85]

Congrats on a nice trip.
You did better than you should have.Just as you experianced positive variance,expect negative variance.
You can,and should,bring the BS chart to the table and consult it whenever you are not 100% certain.

Huh? I didn't think we would be allowed to have a chart right there at the table, which is why I left in in my car. I wouldn't want to get kicked out or anything.

 

[21forme]

You are permitted to consult a basic strategy chart while playing at every casino I've been to. Some casinos won't let you keep it on the table, but you're free to keep it in your hand or pocket and refer to it as needed.

 

[shadroch]

Just don't start correcting other players with your chart,and be sure it's the right chart for the game you are playing.

 

[EasyRhino]

It's surprisingly easy to have swings of +-$100 when flat betting $5. In fact, if you're flat betting five and want to have a "low" chance of busting out during a session, I'd recommend bringing $200.

That being said, your long term results will converge on the expected house advantage, of losing a little per session.

I actually had a case a while I ago where I cranked through a few thousand $5 hands online (used autoplay, thankfully). The results were making multiple hundred dollar swings during that time. I figure the bankroll "walked" though about $1000 worth of up-down movement, (and I still ended up with a win!)

 

[creeping panther]

Wow!

I'm a rookie and I was betting the minimum most of the time ($5), so I think I did fairly good.

Rules: 8 deck, dealers hits soft 17, peek

I was up $150. The last hand I put a $20 bet in and got an 7,4. Dealer turned over an Ace (dammit!), but I still followed the basic strategy and doubled down. Unfortunately I only got a 2, and he had a 19. Lost $40.

I followed the strategy about 95% of the time (forgot what to do on some hands, need to study more). I was surprised at how many players don't know anything about basic strategy. Some people were losing like $100 in 30 minutes.

So do you think I did pretty good? I'm going back again tonight so hopefully I do better. I always expect to lose though.

8 decks and hit soft 17, ain't they generous



CP

 

[EasyRhino]

Also, the variance in the game can be pretty surprising until you get used to it. Sure, the house edge might only cost you about 2.5 cents per hand with perfect basic strategy, but if you're talking about winning or losing $100 at a time, then you're talking real money.

After one of my first or second trip where I had a series of $25 bets (and was sweating bullets), I actually had to call up a friend to yell "I JUST WON TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS!!'.

I don't do that any more.

 

[redlinegts85]

I know the house always has the advantage. What I don't get is why people always say, "you will eventually lose money in the long run because of the house advantage." A buddy of mine is like +2000 dollars over the past 2 months. What prevents a player from winning $100 or more each time they go to the casino? It doesn't seem impossible.

Yes, like I said, I understand the house has the advantage and you're expected to lose, but I just don't understand why everyone says you will lose money in the long run. Are you just basing that statement on the house advantage? I can see a player going and winning over $100 each time. I've seen my friend do it so far.

 

[zengrifter]

I'm a rookie and I was betting the minimum most of the time ($5), so I think I did fairly good.

Rules: 8 deck, dealers hits soft 17, peek

I was up $150. The last hand I put a $20 bet in and got an 7,4. Dealer turned over an Ace (dammit!), but I still followed the basic strategy and doubled down. Unfortunately I only got a 2, and he had a 19. Lost $40.

I followed the strategy about 95% of the time (forgot what to do on some hands, need to study more). I was surprised at how many players don't know anything about basic strategy. Some people were losing like $100 in 30 minutes.

So do you think I did pretty good? I'm going back again tonight so hopefully I do better. I always expect to lose though.

Your just a BS gambler who beat the odds. zg

 

[sagefr0g]

I know the house always has the advantage. What I don't get is why people always say, "you will eventually lose money in the long run because of the house advantage." A buddy of mine is like +2000 dollars over the past 2 months. What prevents a player from winning $100 or more each time they go to the casino? It doesn't seem impossible.

Yes, like I said, I understand the house has the advantage and you're expected to lose, but I just don't understand why everyone says you will lose money in the long run. Are you just basing that statement on the house advantage? I can see a player going and winning over $100 each time. I've seen my friend do it so far.

i think this is an interesting question and subject. i hope i really understand it myself and can give you an idea of what's going on. and i'll try to not be all mathematical. lol well actually i couldn't even relate the math or do it with out going to some book anyway. it's not really difficult math but i don't keep that sort of stuff in my head. lol.
so but anyway you want to understand the nature of playing blackjack and the results that you'll likely see. it's an up and down game for the player result wise. that is the nature of the game. this is true for ploppies, basic strategy players and counters. this is what makes the game allurring to the gambler. you know if you lost every time you played the game well no one would play it. so thats the way the game has been created to deliver that up and down action. so over time or over sessions of play you'll walk away winner sometimes and loser sometimes. fact of life with blackjack. it's a game where your chances of winning are almost but not quite equal to your chances of losing. another fact of life about blackjack is that the order for which you might walk away winner or loser is not fixed or predictable. you may have a series of winning sessions or a series of losing sessions then things might switch up.
so but your just playing basic strategy so lets look at that. if you play perfect basic strategy against some given game then your going to be told that the house has a given advantage over you. that's true but that's not the whole story. remmember the game of blackjack is a up and down game result wise no matter what category of player you are. so blackjack is an up and down game result wise well another way of saying that is blackjack players experience variance in their results. thats just a fact of life the nature of the game. so ok the house does indeed have an advantage over you but that advantage is only a part of the variance of results that you as a player is going to experience. this variance of results is perfectly normal and is expected to happen just as the house's advantage is expected to happen. so you might win $100 dollars in some session and think hmm well i sure didn't expect that and i'll bet the house didn't either. but really you should expect to win $100 and the house does expect to lose $100 to you. it's a perfectly normal part of what the house expects to happen. but remmember blackjack is a game of ups and downs and players will experience variance in their results and it is a fact that the house has some given advantage over you. so what that means is the unfortunate opposite of winning $100 dollars ie. losing $100 dollars plus the dollar amount expected by the house is equally as likely. so the point is the variance (the very thing that entices a gambler to play) is lopsided. when you win it's always some amount minus the house expectation and when you lose it's always some amount plus the house expectation. the end result over an extended period of time or sessions of play of this winning money and losing money is that you end up losing an amount that is just about what the house expects to win over time or more accurately over a given number of hands played.
it's like you over time playing are a spinning coin that is slightly biased to end up flat on the table heads up. you won't always land flat on the table heads up but more often than not you will. and unfortunately by the rules of the game you are forced to bet on the coin landing tails up. you'll win a lot when the coin lands tails up and thats perfectly normal but you'll lose more when the coin over time lands more times heads up and thats perfectly normal as well since the coin is biased.

 

[redlinegts85]

i think this is an interesting question and subject. i hope i really understand it myself and can give you an idea of what's going on. and i'll try to not be all mathematical. lol well actually i couldn't even relate the math or do it with out going to some book anyway. it's not really difficult math but i don't keep that sort of stuff in my head. lol.
so but anyway you want to understand the nature of playing blackjack and the results that you'll likely see. it's an up and down game for the player result wise. that is the nature of the game. this is true for ploppies, basic strategy players and counters. this is what makes the game allurring to the gambler. you know if you lost every time you played the game well no one would play it. so thats the way the game has been created to deliver that up and down action. so over time or over sessions of play you'll walk away winner sometimes and loser sometimes. fact of life with blackjack. it's a game where your chances of winning are almost but not quite equal to your chances of losing. another fact of life about blackjack is that the order for which you might walk away winner or loser is not fixed or predictable. you may have a series of winning sessions or a series of losing sessions then things might switch up.
so but your just playing basic strategy so lets look at that. if you play perfect basic strategy against some given game then your going to be told that the house has a given advantage over you. that's true but that's not the whole story. remmember the game of blackjack is a up and down game result wise no matter what category of player you are. so blackjack is an up and down game result wise well another way of saying that is blackjack players experience variance in their results. thats just a fact of life the nature of the game. so ok the house does indeed have an advantage over you but that advantage is only a part of the variance of results that you as a player is going to experience. this variance of results is perfectly normal and is expected to happen just as the house's advantage is expected to happen. so you might win $100 dollars in some session and think hmm well i sure didn't expect that and i'll bet the house didn't either. but really you should expect to win $100 and the house does expect to lose $100 to you. it's a perfectly normal part of what the house expects to happen. but remmember blackjack is a game of ups and downs and players will experience variance in their results and it is a fact that the house has some given advantage over you. so what that means is the unfortunate opposite of winning $100 dollars ie. losing $100 dollars plus the dollar amount expected by the house is equally as likely. so the point is the variance (the very thing that entices a gambler to play) is lopsided. when you win it's always some amount minus the house expectation and when you lose it's always some amount plus the house expectation. the end result over an extended period of time or sessions of play of this winning money and losing money is that you end up losing an amount that is just about what the house expects to win over time or more accurately over a given number of hands played.
it's like you over time playing are a spinning coin that is slightly biased to end up flat on the table heads up. you won't always land flat on the table heads up but more often than not you will. and unfortunately by the rules of the game you are forced to bet on the coin landing tails up. you'll win a lot when the coin lands tails up and thats perfectly normal but you'll lose more when the coin over time lands more times heads up and thats perfectly normal as well since the coin is biased.

Gotcha.

So basically from my understand it comes down to two things:

1. It's expected that you will lose more in the long run because the house always has that advantage. It's expected, but it doesn't have to happen that way.

2. The game is a mix of luck and a little skill. Players that follow the BS have more of an advantage over the players that don't know what the hell they're doing, and counters have the advantage over BS players. However, the luck can take away that advantage.


At least that's my understanding. I do think players skill definitely comes into play. I also went to the casino a couple of weeks ago with a friend and I followed the BS. He didn't (he likes to do stuff his own way). He lost $60 in about 20 minutes. I won $75 in about 30 minutes, and about an hour later left with $15 more than I came with. In the end, the BS player (me) came out much better than the non-BS player (my friend).

 

[sagefr0g]

Gotcha.

So basically from my understand it comes down to two things:

1. It's expected that you will lose more in the long run because the house always has that advantage. It's expected, but it doesn't have to happen that way.

2. The game is a mix of luck and a little skill. Players that follow the BS have more of an advantage over the players that don't know what the hell they're doing, and counters have the advantage over BS players. However, the luck can take away that advantage.


At least that's my understanding. I do think players skill definitely comes into play. ....

yup that's it and maybe add emphasis to the idea that overtime and getting more hands in approaching the long run the edge either pro player or anti player becomes ever more realized. it's virtually inevitable.
oh and maybe nothing takes the advantage away. it's just everything plays out normal as expected. in a sense luck doesn't even exist in blackjack. but standard deviation does which is a sort of a second cousin of variance. sometimes we call standard deviation luck but really it's completely expected just as what ever edge that's ruling over it all is expected. that is as long as we play like robots with either perfect basic strategy and or perfect counting.
perhaps luck if it exists at all in blackjack has more to do with some quirk of action that we may or may not introduce into our play.

 

[shadroch]

Gotcha.

So basically from my understand it comes down to two things:

1. It's expected that you will lose more in the long run because the house always has that advantage. It's expected, but it doesn't have to happen that way.

2. The game is a mix of luck and a little skill. Players that follow the BS have more of an advantage over the players that don't know what the hell they're doing, and counters have the advantage over BS players. However, the luck can take away that advantage.


At least that's my understanding. I do think players skill definitely comes into play. I also went to the casino a couple of weeks ago with a friend and I followed the BS. He didn't (he likes to do stuff his own way). He lost $60 in about 20 minutes. I won $75 in about 30 minutes, and about an hour later left with $15 more than I came with. In the end, the BS player (me) came out much better than the non-BS player (my friend).

Now go and duplicate those results over 250,000 hands.
The math is the math.You can argue with it,you can not believe in it,but you can't change it.The bigger the sample,the closer to the norm it will get.If you play a losing strategy( and thats what BS is),then in the end you'll get the expected results.There is no skill involved in BS,just as a ten year old reciting the times table has no skill.
Can you come out ahead playing BJ? Yes,but not by only using BS.I forget the exact number,but the chances of a flat-betting BS player being ahead after 1,000 hours of play are astronomical. If you feel that lucky,you might want to buy a lottery ticket.

 

[EasyRhino]

Another way to argue it.

The house advantage on blackjack, if you play perfect BS, is small (half-percent). Because it's so small, it takes a long time to assert itself. There various math ways to derive this. I don't know them. But it wouldn't be unreasonable to say that it might take 10,000 hands until you are fairly certain that you would have negative results.

So, over the short term (one session) it's all luck.

Now, skill can matter. Contrast blackjack's half-percent edge with roulette's five percent, or a slot's ten percent. The suck money out of gamblers much more efficiently. So, over the "medium-term" (say, a year of occasional recreational play), a perfect BS players still has a decent shot of being ahead, but a slot player or a ploppy has much worse odds.

However, when you're sitting at the table playing, I think it's very useful to remind yourself that every hand is costing you money, even if it's only 1% of your bet. That's why you want to bet small, perfect your BS, play slow, find full tables, and get as many comps as possible.

Incidentally, the long time it takes for a small advantage to assert itself is why card counting isn't a sure path to riches.

 

[sagefr0g]

....

So, over the short term (one session) it's all luck.

....

look deeper grasshopper

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=93235&postcount=1

 

[EasyRhino]

I disabree,"fat tail" events as described in Black Swan are focusing on markets an other systems which are more complicated where basic statistics can't model it.

Cards, on the other hand, tend to fall nicely into gaussian distributions, and can be modeled by people who passed and remembered their college statistics class.

So, in conclusion, over the short term, it's all luck.

 

[redlinegts85]

I still don't completely understand this.

Every time you go to the casino, it's a new day. If you win $100 one day, what exactly is going to stop you from winning $100 the next time you go. And the next? And the next? It's a new day each time you go.

Sure, the house advantage basically says that you will lose in the long run, but it doesn't seem impossible to actually WIN in the long run either. Like I said, it's a new day each time you go play, and it's possible to win something on each of those days.

 

[shadroch]

Try to look at it like this-When you finish playing your hand,your next hand is just that. your next hand. It doesn't matterr if your next hand is five seconds after your last one,or two weeks. In the game of BJ,its all just one long session.The cards don't know if its your first hand of the day,or your last. They don't care,either.Neither does luck,fate or variance.Each and every hand you play using only BS is a hand played with a negative expectation. In the long run,your results have to mirror that.Its all just one long session,no matter if you play one hour a day for 24 days or 24 hours in a single day
I strongly suggest you pick up a copy of a book called The Blackjack Zone,by Elliot Richardson. He covers this subject at great length and with the passion and wisdom of a real math professor.He'll explain it much better than I am.

 

[Mimosine]

Some people were losing like $100 in 30 minutes.

i've lost more than that in 15 minutes, flat betting in a $5 game, and i was playing perfect BS.

don't think it couldn't happen to you, and if you aren't playing perfect BS, then you really don't have any way to evaluate if others are playing better or worse than you. hitting or standing on with a 16 V 10 is a LOT different than hitting or standing with a 16 V 8. if you don't/didn't know that, then you have a lot to learn about BS and about how bad other peoples play is, vs. your own.

that person who lost $100 in 30 minutes could have been the most skillful blackjack player in the world. if you don't know BS cold you how could you tell if they were right or wrong? how could you tell if they were using indexes, hence their plays were different than BS?