WTF do I do?

[p8ntballsk8r]

So after implementing KO and starting to use it, I had a week that I couldn't lose. This led to me becoming cocky and thinking I was much better than I actually am at blackjack. After playing 10-12 sessions I was up 300 units. Now I've got the reverse and I'm on a huge losing streak. I've lost the past 8 sessions and lost 200 units. I am keeping the count the whole shoe, now ramping my bet and playing BS perfectly. It seems I'm just sitting at tables where dealers are pulling amazing hands from out of their asses.

What do you guys do when you're on a huge losing streak? What is a good way to turn it around and get back on the positive side?

And what could I possibly be doing wrong?

 

[ScottH]

So after implementing KO and starting to use it, I had a week that I couldn't lose. This led to me becoming cocky and thinking I was much better than I actually am at blackjack. After playing 10-12 sessions I was up 300 units. Now I've got the reverse and I'm on a huge losing streak. I've lost the past 8 sessions and lost 200 units. I am keeping the count the whole shoe, now ramping my bet and playing BS perfectly. It seems I'm just sitting at tables where dealers are pulling amazing hands from out of their asses.

What do you guys do when you're on a huge losing streak? What is a good way to turn it around and get back on the positive side?

And what could I possibly be doing wrong?

The only way to turn around the losing streak is to keep playing. Provided you are playing correctly. If you are playing poorly, then you really should figure out what you're doing wrong, because if you don't you can expect more losing in the future!

 

[sagefr0g]

So after implementing KO and starting to use it, I had a week that I couldn't lose. This led to me becoming cocky and thinking I was much better than I actually am at blackjack. After playing 10-12 sessions I was up 300 units. Now I've got the reverse and I'm on a huge losing streak. I've lost the past 8 sessions and lost 200 units. I am keeping the count the whole shoe, now ramping my bet and playing BS perfectly. It seems I'm just sitting at tables where dealers are pulling amazing hands from out of their asses.

What do you guys do when you're on a huge losing streak? What is a good way to turn it around and get back on the positive side?

And what could I possibly be doing wrong?

i'm guessing here but if you realized 300 units in say 10 sessions it sounds as if you may be overbetting. your averaging winning 30 units per session. even if your sessions are five hours long that would still be winning at a rate of 6 units an hour. pretty high win rate. then your unfortunate demise (you have my sincere sympathy) of 200 units in eight sessions is also pretty steep indicating the possibility of overbetting. but with such a low number of sessions such statisitical musings are indeed fuzzy at best.
how many units is your max bet? are you playing all or back counting?
as far as what i do when i hit a huge losing streak..... well i'm in the middle of one right now. i've taken a breather from blackjack for the time being and am trying to figure out how to achieve more EV. also have been 'dancing with Lady Luck's ugly sister Lady Surebet' .... ie. i got a job to rebuild and extend my depleted bankroll.

 

[EasyRhino]

Yeah, I remember from the "drop the black chip" thread...

I think we've got at least three things going on here:

1) You're overbetting
2) Variance is a bitch
3) The cards don't remember how you've done previously.

The biggest high-to-low swings I've had is 200 units down, and about 90 units up. In the grand scheme of things, that's pretty minor )Ian Anderson wrote that he had a downward swing over a long time of about 1,200 units, which boggles the mind, but he's had a lifetime of play). Importantly, my big bet is a small percentage of my bankroll (about 2%, and I'm overbetting by conventional measures), the swings would have been much more dramatic if I was betting larger.

On any given session, on any given hand, you might get lucky, or you might not. You're never "due" a winning or losing streak, you can start or extend one at any moment. Your early winning streak might well have given you enough extra bankroll to weather the losing streak. What would have happened if they were in the reverse order? (I know I have been lucky so far with having my streaks organized in a beneficial measure).

Let's lay it on the table: What's your bankroll, what's your min and max bet, how long are your sessions (at how many different joints), and how long are your sessions?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

So after implementing KO and starting to use it, I had a week that I couldn't lose. This led to me becoming cocky and thinking I was much better than I actually am at blackjack. After playing 10-12 sessions I was up 300 units. Now I've got the reverse and I'm on a huge losing streak. I've lost the past 8 sessions and lost 200 units. I am keeping the count the whole shoe, now ramping my bet and playing BS perfectly. It seems I'm just sitting at tables where dealers are pulling amazing hands from out of their asses.

What do you guys do when you're on a huge losing streak? What is a good way to turn it around and get back on the positive side?

And what could I possibly be doing wrong?

Welcome to blackjack. 200 units is nothing. I've lost that in an hour. I've lost 140 units on one hand, not overbetting either.

Best thing you can do is just think about the good variance!

 

[SecurityRisk]

I've been there

I'm on a losing streak myself right now. If the count is high, the dealer has a five showing, I'm dealt an eleven, I double down, it's practically a guarantee I will lose.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Come back after you've had a three month losing streak. Get used to it, it is part of the game and you will go through prolonged losing and winning streaks. The key is to be emotionless to both the wins and the losses. The money doesn't matter! All that matters is that you played your hands correctly, put out your proper bets when you are supposed to and kept the right count!

 

[ChefJJ]

So after implementing KO and starting to use it, I had a week that I couldn't lose. This led to me becoming cocky and thinking I was much better than I actually am at blackjack. After playing 10-12 sessions I was up 300 units. Now I've got the reverse and I'm on a huge losing streak. I've lost the past 8 sessions and lost 200 units. I am keeping the count the whole shoe, now ramping my bet and playing BS perfectly. It seems I'm just sitting at tables where dealers are pulling amazing hands from out of their asses.

What do you guys do when you're on a huge losing streak? What is a good way to turn it around and get back on the positive side?

And what could I possibly be doing wrong?

I hear that wearing garlic around your neck helps with that

Seriously though, that's just part of the tempering of playing BJ. I liken it to the idea that only the strong survive when times are low. The other posts that say "stick to your game" and "keep playing BS and staying the course on your betting/count system" are dead on! For someone that plays quite a bit like yourself, a BJ advantage player is somewhat on par with a stock investor--there are ups and downs (growth and checks), but that percentage gain over the long haul is there. You just need the proper bankroll and the iron will to tough it out.

 

[p8ntballsk8r]

well now my bankroll is down to about 70 units. When I started the winning streak I had my entire 7 unit BR on the table and won 80 units in an hour.
Ususally my sessions are fairly short, which is probably the reason why my streak lasted so long because positive variance was helping me win. I've changed my game to a 1-10 spread, unless i'm up 40 units in that session alone, then I might do 1-20 if the count merits it.

I don't believe I'm overbetting anymore.
also if i'm using a 1-10 spread, how many units would be best to buy in with?
I usually buy in with 8 units the first time, if I lose i'll go to another table with another 8 units unless the count is average or good. Then if i lose that, i'll only buy in again if the count is higher than the key count with a fair amount of decks left to be dealt, or if the count is higher than the pivot i'll buy in and throw down 10 units in a 'steaming' fashion to make my bet look justified

 

[xxrenegadexx]

is it me ... or is everyone in a losing streak.... yesterday the bus ride home was miserable... i wonged for 6 hours ... only sat down at a rc of 8 at least 2 decks played out.... so in reality i probably only sat down recieving hands for an hour or so and droped 800..... WONDERFUL

 

[EasyRhino]

I do not thing that "unit" means what you think it means. A "unit" generally corresponds to your minimum bet.

A nice, conservative, bankroll would be 100 times your max bet. Assuming you are spreading, and your max bet is 10 units, then that means that your total bankroll is 1000 units.

You started with 7 units.

Now, it may sound like I'm being preachy about betting in proportion to your bankroll. That's because I am. However, sometimes overbetting is just unavoidable, especially when you have a tiny bankroll, or are very recreational. For instance, my bankroll is about $3,000 right now. However, my max bet needs to be $50, or I'm not even playing a profitable game. Ergo, I'm overbetting too. Just not on a scale like it sounds you are.

And yes, I sympathize with you on the bad luck. On any one hand, even in a high count, it's nearly a coin flip as to whether or not you win. In the short run, it's luck, in the long run, it's skill. (and the short run can last a tremendously long time, , check out this post).

 

[xxrenegadexx]

easy rhino..... our bankroll is in the same ballpark as yours.... wouldnt you wong exclusively since like you said overbetting your bankroll is unaviodable unless you sit down with the clear advantage and bet your 30 max.... yesterday i droped 800 betting in only positive counts my max bet was 40 ... a couple of unlucky doubledowns and were in trouble if were betting more than one percent.... standard deviation is a killer

 

[EasyRhino]

To be honest, I don't really have the patience to wong exclusively (at heart, I'm more of a comp-counter). Also, many of the places I like to play at have limited tables or crowding issues which make it tougher.

The other trick with my bankroll is that I have a few grand from online bonus-hustling which I'm this close to being able to successfully return to my bank account (it's been quite an adventure lately). So anyway, once that hits, I'll have much more headroom in my bankroll. I'm "predicting" that just a little bit.

But again, the main reason is laziness. I feel pretty miserable after a couple hours of full-on wonging.

 

[p8ntballsk8r]

The problem with my only local casino is similar to your problem. All tables are kept full or near full, which makes wonging difficult.

Also I'm wondering what a good cover for backcounting is when the pitboss sees you, sees there are spots open, and you are still backcounting.

How do you guys backcount without being obvious, knowing that this is the only casino with beatable rules in my area.

 

[Cardcounter]

You are way over betting if you lose a 140 units in a hand!

A unit is your low bet on a hand so if your low bet on a hand is $5 thats 1 unit. Your high bet might be 6 units not 140 units. The most that should ever be out there is 8*6=48 units for when you split 4 times and double on every split a very rare event but none the less possible. Having a $140 on any one hand is different than having a 140 units on one hand!

 

[EasyRhino]

Thing is, there's a lot of people that just sort of look and watch other people play. Just act like those creepy guys in the park with the trenchcoats. Hell, one time, an observer was even keeping a running count out loud at my table.

If dealer or floorman recognizes you and says hi, smile and wave, but when they invite you to sit down, reach into your bag of excuses: "waiting to see if the dealer is hot", "fishing in pocket for players card", "letting the wallet take a breather", "deciding which table is lucky", "watching the game", "want to finish eating my ice cream" etc. etc. etc. You first wong-in is basically free.

For wonging out, you've got breaks, a la bathroom breaks, which are also free, you just have to come back to the same table, ideally at the shuffle.

Also, if you wong out and wong directly to another table, and start playing, it doesn't look too weird either (although it's more paperwork for the floorman to track your play, so don't get too annoying).

And if you take a lengthy break (meal, etc.) then the clock is reset, and you get a free wong-in.

What would be bad:
- sit down mid-shoe
- leave mid-shoe
- go to another table, and just watch.
- sit down mid-shoe
- leave again mid-shoe, or at shuffle
- watch some more

Actually, if you were only betting like $20 each time, then even that wouldn't look too suspicious, except the pit would think you're a table louse.

As soon as you get a second pit area, with different floormen, your options multiply dramatically.

 

[zengrifter]

well now my bankroll is down to about 70 units. When I started the winning streak I had my entire 7 unit BR on the table and won 80 units in an hour.
Ususally my sessions are fairly short, which is probably the reason why my streak lasted so long because positive variance was helping me win. I've changed my game to a 1-10 spread, unless i'm up 40 units in that session alone, then I might do 1-20 if the count merits it.

I don't believe I'm overbetting anymore.
also if i'm using a 1-10 spread, how many units would be best to buy in with?
I usually buy in with 8 units the first time, if I lose i'll go to another table with another 8 units unless the count is average or good. Then if i lose that, i'll only buy in again if the count is higher than the key count with a fair amount of decks left to be dealt, or if the count is higher than the pivot i'll buy in and throw down 10 units in a 'steaming' fashion to make my bet look justified

What's your total BR and what's your max bet? Also, the max bet for 1-20 is tHE SAME as the max bet for 1-10! zg

 

[p8ntballsk8r]

total br is down to 80 units.

max bet 10 units cuz 1-10 spread.

I'm guessing you guys are gonna say I need to have a bigger BR, but thats not really possible right now, should I just avoid BJ in general? I was thinking about waiting for a the count to reach the pivot point in a game, then wong in and throw down 10 units on the hand. What do you guys think about that as my next strat for when I hit up the casino again?

 

[NDN21]

What methods are you using to make sure you are playing correctly?

During your win streak you could have been playing incorrectly but winning anyway. It is possible that the poor play is catching up now.

How do you know you are playing correctly?

As for myself, I have the Casino Verite software. I play 2-3 hours at a time then I check my stats. From there I will know where I need improvement.

When a player is in the casino there is no way to stop play and make sure they are playing correctly. "Excuse me pit, but could you take out all the discards and count them using the KO method. I need to be sure I have the right count. Also could you tell me if I make an incorrect indice play?".

Practice software is one way to play in a casino environment but still be able to stop play and see if you are playing correctly.

 

[EasyRhino]

I want to vouch that you want to check your skills. A simple way is to count down a deck or two or 8 super fast then check your math at the end, but that wouldn't tell you how well you combine that with play decisions. Software can do good, and incorporate that with loud music and TV. Or recruit friends and family to deal or just be distracting.

total br is down to 80 units.
max bet 10 units cuz 1-10 spread.
I'm guessing you guys are gonna say I need to have a bigger BR, but thats not really possible right now, should I just avoid BJ in general? I was thinking about waiting for a the count to reach the pivot point in a game, then wong in and throw down 10 units on the hand.

A big bankroll makes everything easier, but we aren't always blessed with one.

80 units is a tough (I'm assuming the units are about $10? $5?). You can totally lose 8 hands in a row, EASY. Wonging reduces your volatility, but only a little bit when the max bet is the same (well, I haven't seen the math, but it only feels like a slight reduction, anyway).

If you need that 80 units for grocery money, or can't replenish it, or really don't want to replenish it, then I would just stop stone cold dead, and not play at all.

If you can replenish it, but it will cause you emotional pain, then consider dropping your max bet to 5 units or $50, whichever is lower. And be very selective about your hands (wonging in at pivot point sounds good).

If the bankroll is readily replenishable (these losses are a blip on your financial radar, and you're just having fun, i.e. gambling), then keep firing it up. For someone who's spending one night in Vegas during a convention or something, betting 1/8 the bankroll per hand would be fine (I would recommend having 10-20 bets, even then).