Die Diagramme zur Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeit des Dealers auf dieser Seite können bei der Entscheidung helfen, welche von zwei Turnierstrategien vorzuziehen ist. Die Werte in diesen Diagrammen wurden mithilfe einer kombinatorischen Analyse aus einem vollen Deck berechnet, nachdem nur die offene Karte des Dealers entfernt wurde.
Wie man die Karten verwendet:
Wählen Sie zunächst das Spiel, das Sie interessiert:
Schauen Sie sich dann die offene Karte des Gebers an und lesen Sie die Spalte abwärts, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit für jedes Ergebnis des Gebers zu sehen.
Die Wahrscheinlichkeiten für jedes Ergebnis außer Blackjack gehen davon aus, dass der Geber die verdeckte Karte geprüft hat und keinen Blackjack hatte. (Daher summieren sich die Spalten unter Dealer Ten und Dealer Ace auf mehr als 100%. Die Zeilen außer Blackjack summieren sich zu 100%.)
Wenn der Geber in einem 1D S17-Spiel zum Beispiel eine Zehn aufdeckt, hat er in 7,84% der Fälle einen Blackjack. Wenn er nun prüft und keinen Blackjack hat, hat er in 35,69% der Fälle insgesamt zwanzig.
| Einzeldeck: Der Geber bleibt bei allen 17ern stehen | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.84% | 31.37% |
| Büste | 35.30% | 37.56% | 40.28% | 42.89% | 42.08% | 25.99% | 23.86% | 23.34% | 23.25% | 16.98% |
| 17 | 13.90% | 13.03% | 13.10% | 11.97% | 16.69% | 37.23% | 13.09% | 12.19% | 12.42% | 18.38% |
| 18 | 13.18% | 13.09% | 11.42% | 12.35% | 10.65% | 13.86% | 36.30% | 10.39% | 12.25% | 19.09% |
| 19 | 13.18% | 12.38% | 12.07% | 11.69% | 10.72% | 7.73% | 12.94% | 35.74% | 12.44% | 18.87% |
| 20 | 12.39% | 12.33% | 11.63% | 10.47% | 10.07% | 7.89% | 6.83% | 12.23% | 35.69% | 19.17% |
| 21 | 12.05% | 11.60% | 11.51% | 10.63% | 9.79% | 7.30% | 6.98% | 6.11% | 3.96% | 7.51% |
| Einzelnes Deck: Der Geber trifft die weiche 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.84% | 31.37% |
| Büste | 35.63% | 37.81% | 40.58% | 43.00% | 43.78% | 25.99% | 23.86% | 23.34% | 23.25% | 20.46% |
| 17 | 12.98% | 12.35% | 12.28% | 11.67% | 11.61% | 37.23% | 13.09% | 12.19% | 12.42% | 8.18% |
| 18 | 13.31% | 13.19% | 11.54% | 12.38% | 11.38% | 13.86% | 36.30% | 10.39% | 12.25% | 20.54% |
| 19 | 13.32% | 12.50% | 12.19% | 11.74% | 11.61% | 7.73% | 12.94% | 35.74% | 12.44% | 20.62% |
| 20 | 12.56% | 12.42% | 11.78% | 10.52% | 10.96% | 7.89% | 6.83% | 12.23% | 35.69% | 20.95% |
| 21 | 12.20% | 11.73% | 11.63% | 10.69% | 10.67% | 7.30% | 6.98% | 6.11% | 3.96% | 9.26% |
| Doppeltes Deck: Der Geber bleibt bei allen 17ern stehen | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.77% | 31.07% |
| Büste | 35.33% | 37.48% | 39.85% | 42.25% | 42.21% | 26.11% | 24.16% | 23.09% | 23.11% | 16.81% |
| 17 | 13.94% | 13.28% | 13.07% | 12.10% | 16.62% | 37.05% | 12.97% | 12.09% | 12.24% | 18.64% |
| 18 | 13.33% | 13.07% | 12.02% | 12.28% | 10.62% | 13.82% | 36.12% | 11.20% | 12.16% | 18.99% |
| 19 | 13.07% | 12.46% | 12.10% | 11.73% | 10.67% | 7.80% | 12.90% | 35.41% | 12.25% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.18% | 11.64% | 10.90% | 10.12% | 7.88% | 6.89% | 12.11% | 36.39% | 19.03% |
| 21 | 11.93% | 11.54% | 11.31% | 10.73% | 9.75% | 7.34% | 6.96% | 6.10% | 3.84% | 7.65% |
| Double Deck: Dealer trifft Soft 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.77% | 31.07% |
| Büste | 35.65% | 37.75% | 40.13% | 42.37% | 43.88% | 26.11% | 24.16% | 23.09% | 23.11% | 20.26% |
| 17 | 12.99% | 12.50% | 12.26% | 11.75% | 11.55% | 37.05% | 12.97% | 12.09% | 12.24% | 8.24% |
| 18 | 13.48% | 13.19% | 12.15% | 12.33% | 11.42% | 13.82% | 36.12% | 11.20% | 12.16% | 20.61% |
| 19 | 13.22% | 12.59% | 12.23% | 11.79% | 11.55% | 7.80% | 12.90% | 35.41% | 12.25% | 20.65% |
| 20 | 12.56% | 12.30% | 11.78% | 10.96% | 11.00% | 7.88% | 6.89% | 12.11% | 36.39% | 20.81% |
| 21 | 12.08% | 11.68% | 11.45% | 10.79% | 10.62% | 7.34% | 6.96% | 6.10% | 3.84% | 9.43% |
| 4 Decks: Der Dealer steht auf allen 17ern | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.73% | 30.92% |
| Büste | 35.34% | 37.43% | 39.65% | 41.94% | 42.27% | 26.17% | 24.32% | 22.97% | 23.05% | 16.73% |
| 17 | 13.96% | 13.39% | 13.06% | 12.16% | 16.58% | 36.95% | 12.91% | 12.05% | 12.16% | 18.76% |
| 18 | 13.41% | 13.06% | 12.31% | 12.25% | 10.62% | 13.80% | 36.03% | 11.60% | 12.12% | 18.94% |
| 19 | 13.02% | 12.51% | 12.12% | 11.75% | 10.65% | 7.83% | 12.88% | 35.24% | 12.16% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.11% | 11.64% | 11.11% | 10.15% | 7.87% | 6.91% | 12.06% | 36.73% | 18.96% |
| 21 | 11.86% | 11.50% | 11.22% | 10.78% | 9.73% | 7.37% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.79% | 7.72% |
| 4 Decks: Dealer trifft Soft 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.73% | 30.92% |
| Büste | 35.66% | 37.71% | 39.92% | 42.06% | 43.91% | 26.17% | 24.32% | 22.97% | 23.05% | 20.16% |
| 17 | 13.00% | 12.57% | 12.25% | 11.80% | 11.52% | 36.95% | 12.91% | 12.05% | 12.16% | 8.27% |
| 18 | 13.57% | 13.19% | 12.44% | 12.31% | 11.45% | 13.80% | 36.03% | 11.60% | 12.12% | 20.65% |
| 19 | 13.18% | 12.65% | 12.26% | 11.81% | 11.51% | 7.83% | 12.88% | 35.24% | 12.16% | 20.67% |
| 20 | 12.57% | 12.24% | 11.78% | 11.17% | 11.01% | 7.87% | 6.91% | 12.06% | 36.73% | 20.75% |
| 21 | 12.02% | 11.65% | 11.35% | 10.84% | 10.60% | 7.37% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.79% | 9.50% |
| 6 Decks: Der Dealer steht auf allen 17ern | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.72% | 30.87% |
| Büste | 35.35% | 37.42% | 39.58% | 41.84% | 42.28% | 26.19% | 24.37% | 22.92% | 23.02% | 16.70% |
| 17 | 13.97% | 13.43% | 13.06% | 12.18% | 16.57% | 36.92% | 12.89% | 12.03% | 12.13% | 18.81% |
| 18 | 13.44% | 13.05% | 12.41% | 12.24% | 10.62% | 13.79% | 36.00% | 11.73% | 12.10% | 18.92% |
| 19 | 13.00% | 12.52% | 12.13% | 11.76% | 10.64% | 7.84% | 12.87% | 35.19% | 12.13% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.08% | 11.64% | 11.18% | 10.16% | 7.87% | 6.92% | 12.04% | 36.84% | 18.94% |
| 21 | 11.84% | 11.49% | 11.19% | 10.79% | 9.73% | 7.38% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.77% | 7.74% |
| 6 Decks: Geber trifft Soft 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.72% | 30.87% |
| Büste | 35.67% | 37.70% | 39.85% | 41.96% | 43.93% | 26.19% | 24.37% | 22.92% | 23.02% | 20.13% |
| 17 | 13.01% | 12.59% | 12.25% | 11.81% | 11.51% | 36.92% | 12.89% | 12.03% | 12.13% | 8.28% |
| 18 | 13.60% | 13.19% | 12.54% | 12.30% | 11.46% | 13.79% | 36.00% | 11.73% | 12.10% | 20.66% |
| 19 | 13.16% | 12.67% | 12.26% | 11.82% | 11.50% | 7.84% | 12.87% | 35.19% | 12.13% | 20.68% |
| 20 | 12.57% | 12.22% | 11.78% | 11.24% | 11.02% | 7.87% | 6.92% | 12.04% | 36.84% | 20.73% |
| 21 | 12.00% | 11.64% | 11.32% | 10.86% | 10.59% | 7.38% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.77% | 9.53% |
| 8 Decks: Der Dealer steht auf allen 17ern | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.71% | 30.84% |
| Büste | 35.35% | 37.41% | 39.55% | 41.79% | 42.29% | 26.20% | 24.40% | 22.90% | 23.01% | 16.69% |
| 17 | 13.97% | 13.45% | 13.05% | 12.19% | 16.56% | 36.90% | 12.88% | 12.02% | 12.11% | 18.83% |
| 18 | 13.45% | 13.05% | 12.45% | 12.24% | 10.62% | 13.79% | 35.98% | 11.80% | 12.09% | 18.92% |
| 19 | 12.99% | 12.53% | 12.13% | 11.76% | 10.64% | 7.85% | 12.87% | 35.16% | 12.12% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.07% | 11.65% | 11.21% | 10.16% | 7.87% | 6.93% | 12.03% | 36.90% | 18.93% |
| 21 | 11.83% | 11.49% | 11.17% | 10.80% | 9.72% | 7.39% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.76% | 7.75% |
| 8 Decks: Geber trifft Soft 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.71% | 30.84% |
| Büste | 35.67% | 37.69% | 39.81% | 41.91% | 43.93% | 26.20% | 24.40% | 22.90% | 23.01% | 20.11% |
| 17 | 13.01% | 12.60% | 12.24% | 11.82% | 11.50% | 36.90% | 12.88% | 12.02% | 12.11% | 8.29% |
| 18 | 13.61% | 13.19% | 12.59% | 12.30% | 11.46% | 13.79% | 35.98% | 11.80% | 12.09% | 20.67% |
| 19 | 13.15% | 12.68% | 12.27% | 11.83% | 11.50% | 7.85% | 12.87% | 35.16% | 12.12% | 20.68% |
| 20 | 12.57% | 12.21% | 11.78% | 11.28% | 11.02% | 7.87% | 6.93% | 12.03% | 36.90% | 20.72% |
| 21 | 11.99% | 11.63% | 11.31% | 10.87% | 10.58% | 7.39% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.76% | 9.54% |
| Unendliches Deck: Der Geber bleibt bei allen 17ern stehen | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% | 30.77% |
| Büste | 35.36% | 37.39% | 39.45% | 41.64% | 42.32% | 26.23% | 24.47% | 22.84% | 22.98% | 16.65% |
| 17 | 13.98% | 13.50% | 13.05% | 12.23% | 16.54% | 36.86% | 12.86% | 12.00% | 12.07% | 18.89% |
| 18 | 13.49% | 13.05% | 12.59% | 12.23% | 10.63% | 13.78% | 35.93% | 12.00% | 12.07% | 18.89% |
| 19 | 12.97% | 12.56% | 12.14% | 11.77% | 10.63% | 7.86% | 12.86% | 35.08% | 12.07% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.03% | 11.65% | 11.31% | 10.17% | 7.86% | 6.94% | 12.00% | 37.07% | 18.89% |
| 21 | 11.80% | 11.47% | 11.12% | 10.82% | 9.72% | 7.41% | 6.94% | 6.08% | 3.74% | 7.78% |
| Unendliches Deck: Geber trifft die weiche 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ergebnis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Zehn | Ace |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% | 30.77% |
| Büste | 35.67% | 37.67% | 39.71% | 41.77% | 43.95% | 26.23% | 24.47% | 22.84% | 22.98% | 20.07% |
| 17 | 13.01% | 12.63% | 12.24% | 11.84% | 11.48% | 36.86% | 12.86% | 12.00% | 12.07% | 8.30% |
| 18 | 13.65% | 13.20% | 12.73% | 12.29% | 11.48% | 13.78% | 35.93% | 12.00% | 12.07% | 20.69% |
| 19 | 13.13% | 12.71% | 12.28% | 11.84% | 11.48% | 7.86% | 12.86% | 35.08% | 12.07% | 20.69% |
| 20 | 12.57% | 12.18% | 11.79% | 11.38% | 11.03% | 7.86% | 6.94% | 12.00% | 37.07% | 20.69% |
| 21 | 11.96% | 11.62% | 11.26% | 10.89% | 10.57% | 7.41% | 6.94% | 6.08% | 3.74% | 9.57% |
Ich habe unterschiedliche Werte für den Fall gefunden, dass unendlich viele Decks vorhanden sind und der Dealer auf allen 17 steht.
Bitte beachten Sie, dass alle Spalten in der Summe 100 % ergeben sollten. Dies gilt aber nicht für die letzten beiden Spalten (Zehner und Asse) des Diagramms! Ich habe identische Werte für die Spalten 2 bis 9, aber unterschiedliche Werte für 10 und Ass.
Offensichtlich haben Sie die Beschreibung oben auf der Seite nicht gelesen. Die Spalten Ass und Zehn werden angezeigt, nachdem der Geber nach einem Blackjack gesucht hat und diesen nicht hatte. Diese Methode ist für die meisten Zwecke weitaus nützlicher als die Einbeziehung von Blackjack in die normalen Summen.
Hallo,
Ich habe die Busting-Wahrscheinlichkeit berechnet (bei unendlich vielen Decks und wenn der Dealer auf allen 17ern steht) und einige meiner Zahlen weichen von Ihren ab. Ich bin sehr zuversichtlich, dass meine Zahlen korrekt sind. Ich kann Ihnen meine Excel-Berechnungen zur Überprüfung schicken, wenn Sie möchten.
Dies sind meine Ergebnisse für die Dealer-Busting-Chancen:
10 21.21%
9 22.84%
8 24.47%
7 26.23%
6 42.32%
5 41.64%
4 38.92%
3 36.17%
2 33.42%
A 11.53%
Nein, mit Ihren Berechnungen stimmt etwas nicht. Ihre Zahlen stimmen mit meinen für die Dealer-Upcards 5, 6, 7, 8 und 9 überein, sind aber zu niedrig für alle anderen Upcards.
Wenn Sie eine zweite Vergleichsmöglichkeit suchen, lesen Sie diesen Thread und laden Sie die Tabelle dort herunter:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/knowledge-base/blackjack-theory-and-math/distribution-of-dealer-hands/
Ich brauche Ihre Excel-Berechnungen für mein Projekt.
Können Sie es mir per Post zusenden?
Post: [email protected]