Probabilidades de resultado del crupier en el Blackjack
Los gráficos de probabilidad de resultado del crupier de esta página pueden ser útiles para determinar cuál de las dos estrategias de torneo es preferible. Los valores de estas tablas se calcularon utilizando un análisis combinatorio de una baraja completa después de eliminar sólo la carta descubierta del crupier.
Cómo utilizar los gráficos:
En primer lugar, elija el juego que le interese:
- 1 baraja, el repartidor se planta con todos los 17s
- 1 baraja, el repartidor golpea 17 suave
- 2 barajas, el repartidor se planta con todos los 17s
- 2 barajas, el repartidor acierta un 17 suave
- 4 barajas, la banca se planta con todos los 17s
- 4 barajas, la banca consigue un 17 suave
- 6 barajas, la banca se planta con todos los 17s
- 6 barajas, la banca consigue un 17 suave
- 8 barajas, la banca se planta con todos los 17s
- 8 barajas, la banca consigue un 17 suave
- Baraja infinita, el repartidor se planta en todos los 17s
- Baraja infinita, el repartidor golpea 17 suave
A continuación, busque la carta boca arriba del crupier en la parte superior y lea la columna hacia abajo para ver la probabilidad de cada resultado del crupier.
Las probabilidades de cada resultado que no sea Blackjack suponen que el crupier ha comprobado la carta descubierta y no tenía Blackjack. (Por lo tanto, las columnas bajo Diez y As del crupier suman más de 100%. Las filas distintas de Blackjack suman 100%).
Por ejemplo, en una partida 1D S17, si el crupier muestra una carta de diez, tendrá blackjack el 7,84% de las veces. Ahora bien, después de que pase y no tenga blackjack, hará un total final de veinte 35,69% de las veces.
| Baraja simple: La banca se planta con todos los 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.84% | 31.37% |
| Busto | 35.30% | 37.56% | 40.28% | 42.89% | 42.08% | 25.99% | 23.86% | 23.34% | 23.25% | 16.98% |
| 17 | 13.90% | 13.03% | 13.10% | 11.97% | 16.69% | 37.23% | 13.09% | 12.19% | 12.42% | 18.38% |
| 18 | 13.18% | 13.09% | 11.42% | 12.35% | 10.65% | 13.86% | 36.30% | 10.39% | 12.25% | 19.09% |
| 19 | 13.18% | 12.38% | 12.07% | 11.69% | 10.72% | 7.73% | 12.94% | 35.74% | 12.44% | 18.87% |
| 20 | 12.39% | 12.33% | 11.63% | 10.47% | 10.07% | 7.89% | 6.83% | 12.23% | 35.69% | 19.17% |
| 21 | 12.05% | 11.60% | 11.51% | 10.63% | 9.79% | 7.30% | 6.98% | 6.11% | 3.96% | 7.51% |
| Baraja simple: El repartidor golpea 17 suave | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.84% | 31.37% |
| Busto | 35.63% | 37.81% | 40.58% | 43.00% | 43.78% | 25.99% | 23.86% | 23.34% | 23.25% | 20.46% |
| 17 | 12.98% | 12.35% | 12.28% | 11.67% | 11.61% | 37.23% | 13.09% | 12.19% | 12.42% | 8.18% |
| 18 | 13.31% | 13.19% | 11.54% | 12.38% | 11.38% | 13.86% | 36.30% | 10.39% | 12.25% | 20.54% |
| 19 | 13.32% | 12.50% | 12.19% | 11.74% | 11.61% | 7.73% | 12.94% | 35.74% | 12.44% | 20.62% |
| 20 | 12.56% | 12.42% | 11.78% | 10.52% | 10.96% | 7.89% | 6.83% | 12.23% | 35.69% | 20.95% |
| 21 | 12.20% | 11.73% | 11.63% | 10.69% | 10.67% | 7.30% | 6.98% | 6.11% | 3.96% | 9.26% |
| Baraja doble: La banca se planta con todos los 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.77% | 31.07% |
| Busto | 35.33% | 37.48% | 39.85% | 42.25% | 42.21% | 26.11% | 24.16% | 23.09% | 23.11% | 16.81% |
| 17 | 13.94% | 13.28% | 13.07% | 12.10% | 16.62% | 37.05% | 12.97% | 12.09% | 12.24% | 18.64% |
| 18 | 13.33% | 13.07% | 12.02% | 12.28% | 10.62% | 13.82% | 36.12% | 11.20% | 12.16% | 18.99% |
| 19 | 13.07% | 12.46% | 12.10% | 11.73% | 10.67% | 7.80% | 12.90% | 35.41% | 12.25% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.18% | 11.64% | 10.90% | 10.12% | 7.88% | 6.89% | 12.11% | 36.39% | 19.03% |
| 21 | 11.93% | 11.54% | 11.31% | 10.73% | 9.75% | 7.34% | 6.96% | 6.10% | 3.84% | 7.65% |
| Baraja doble: Dealer golpea suave 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.77% | 31.07% |
| Busto | 35.65% | 37.75% | 40.13% | 42.37% | 43.88% | 26.11% | 24.16% | 23.09% | 23.11% | 20.26% |
| 17 | 12.99% | 12.50% | 12.26% | 11.75% | 11.55% | 37.05% | 12.97% | 12.09% | 12.24% | 8.24% |
| 18 | 13.48% | 13.19% | 12.15% | 12.33% | 11.42% | 13.82% | 36.12% | 11.20% | 12.16% | 20.61% |
| 19 | 13.22% | 12.59% | 12.23% | 11.79% | 11.55% | 7.80% | 12.90% | 35.41% | 12.25% | 20.65% |
| 20 | 12.56% | 12.30% | 11.78% | 10.96% | 11.00% | 7.88% | 6.89% | 12.11% | 36.39% | 20.81% |
| 21 | 12.08% | 11.68% | 11.45% | 10.79% | 10.62% | 7.34% | 6.96% | 6.10% | 3.84% | 9.43% |
| 4 Barajas: La banca se planta con todos los 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.73% | 30.92% |
| Busto | 35.34% | 37.43% | 39.65% | 41.94% | 42.27% | 26.17% | 24.32% | 22.97% | 23.05% | 16.73% |
| 17 | 13.96% | 13.39% | 13.06% | 12.16% | 16.58% | 36.95% | 12.91% | 12.05% | 12.16% | 18.76% |
| 18 | 13.41% | 13.06% | 12.31% | 12.25% | 10.62% | 13.80% | 36.03% | 11.60% | 12.12% | 18.94% |
| 19 | 13.02% | 12.51% | 12.12% | 11.75% | 10.65% | 7.83% | 12.88% | 35.24% | 12.16% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.11% | 11.64% | 11.11% | 10.15% | 7.87% | 6.91% | 12.06% | 36.73% | 18.96% |
| 21 | 11.86% | 11.50% | 11.22% | 10.78% | 9.73% | 7.37% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.79% | 7.72% |
| 4 Barajas: La banca tiene un 17 suave | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.73% | 30.92% |
| Busto | 35.66% | 37.71% | 39.92% | 42.06% | 43.91% | 26.17% | 24.32% | 22.97% | 23.05% | 20.16% |
| 17 | 13.00% | 12.57% | 12.25% | 11.80% | 11.52% | 36.95% | 12.91% | 12.05% | 12.16% | 8.27% |
| 18 | 13.57% | 13.19% | 12.44% | 12.31% | 11.45% | 13.80% | 36.03% | 11.60% | 12.12% | 20.65% |
| 19 | 13.18% | 12.65% | 12.26% | 11.81% | 11.51% | 7.83% | 12.88% | 35.24% | 12.16% | 20.67% |
| 20 | 12.57% | 12.24% | 11.78% | 11.17% | 11.01% | 7.87% | 6.91% | 12.06% | 36.73% | 20.75% |
| 21 | 12.02% | 11.65% | 11.35% | 10.84% | 10.60% | 7.37% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.79% | 9.50% |
| 6 barajas: La banca se planta con todos los 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.72% | 30.87% |
| Busto | 35.35% | 37.42% | 39.58% | 41.84% | 42.28% | 26.19% | 24.37% | 22.92% | 23.02% | 16.70% |
| 17 | 13.97% | 13.43% | 13.06% | 12.18% | 16.57% | 36.92% | 12.89% | 12.03% | 12.13% | 18.81% |
| 18 | 13.44% | 13.05% | 12.41% | 12.24% | 10.62% | 13.79% | 36.00% | 11.73% | 12.10% | 18.92% |
| 19 | 13.00% | 12.52% | 12.13% | 11.76% | 10.64% | 7.84% | 12.87% | 35.19% | 12.13% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.08% | 11.64% | 11.18% | 10.16% | 7.87% | 6.92% | 12.04% | 36.84% | 18.94% |
| 21 | 11.84% | 11.49% | 11.19% | 10.79% | 9.73% | 7.38% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.77% | 7.74% |
| 6 Barajas: La banca tiene un 17 suave | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.72% | 30.87% |
| Busto | 35.67% | 37.70% | 39.85% | 41.96% | 43.93% | 26.19% | 24.37% | 22.92% | 23.02% | 20.13% |
| 17 | 13.01% | 12.59% | 12.25% | 11.81% | 11.51% | 36.92% | 12.89% | 12.03% | 12.13% | 8.28% |
| 18 | 13.60% | 13.19% | 12.54% | 12.30% | 11.46% | 13.79% | 36.00% | 11.73% | 12.10% | 20.66% |
| 19 | 13.16% | 12.67% | 12.26% | 11.82% | 11.50% | 7.84% | 12.87% | 35.19% | 12.13% | 20.68% |
| 20 | 12.57% | 12.22% | 11.78% | 11.24% | 11.02% | 7.87% | 6.92% | 12.04% | 36.84% | 20.73% |
| 21 | 12.00% | 11.64% | 11.32% | 10.86% | 10.59% | 7.38% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.77% | 9.53% |
| 8 Barajas: La banca se planta con todos los 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.71% | 30.84% |
| Busto | 35.35% | 37.41% | 39.55% | 41.79% | 42.29% | 26.20% | 24.40% | 22.90% | 23.01% | 16.69% |
| 17 | 13.97% | 13.45% | 13.05% | 12.19% | 16.56% | 36.90% | 12.88% | 12.02% | 12.11% | 18.83% |
| 18 | 13.45% | 13.05% | 12.45% | 12.24% | 10.62% | 13.79% | 35.98% | 11.80% | 12.09% | 18.92% |
| 19 | 12.99% | 12.53% | 12.13% | 11.76% | 10.64% | 7.85% | 12.87% | 35.16% | 12.12% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.07% | 11.65% | 11.21% | 10.16% | 7.87% | 6.93% | 12.03% | 36.90% | 18.93% |
| 21 | 11.83% | 11.49% | 11.17% | 10.80% | 9.72% | 7.39% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.76% | 7.75% |
| 8 Barajas: La banca tiene un 17 suave | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.71% | 30.84% |
| Busto | 35.67% | 37.69% | 39.81% | 41.91% | 43.93% | 26.20% | 24.40% | 22.90% | 23.01% | 20.11% |
| 17 | 13.01% | 12.60% | 12.24% | 11.82% | 11.50% | 36.90% | 12.88% | 12.02% | 12.11% | 8.29% |
| 18 | 13.61% | 13.19% | 12.59% | 12.30% | 11.46% | 13.79% | 35.98% | 11.80% | 12.09% | 20.67% |
| 19 | 13.15% | 12.68% | 12.27% | 11.83% | 11.50% | 7.85% | 12.87% | 35.16% | 12.12% | 20.68% |
| 20 | 12.57% | 12.21% | 11.78% | 11.28% | 11.02% | 7.87% | 6.93% | 12.03% | 36.90% | 20.72% |
| 21 | 11.99% | 11.63% | 11.31% | 10.87% | 10.58% | 7.39% | 6.95% | 6.09% | 3.76% | 9.54% |
| Baraja infinita: El repartidor se planta con todos los 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% | 30.77% |
| Busto | 35.36% | 37.39% | 39.45% | 41.64% | 42.32% | 26.23% | 24.47% | 22.84% | 22.98% | 16.65% |
| 17 | 13.98% | 13.50% | 13.05% | 12.23% | 16.54% | 36.86% | 12.86% | 12.00% | 12.07% | 18.89% |
| 18 | 13.49% | 13.05% | 12.59% | 12.23% | 10.63% | 13.78% | 35.93% | 12.00% | 12.07% | 18.89% |
| 19 | 12.97% | 12.56% | 12.14% | 11.77% | 10.63% | 7.86% | 12.86% | 35.08% | 12.07% | 18.89% |
| 20 | 12.40% | 12.03% | 11.65% | 11.31% | 10.17% | 7.86% | 6.94% | 12.00% | 37.07% | 18.89% |
| 21 | 11.80% | 11.47% | 11.12% | 10.82% | 9.72% | 7.41% | 6.94% | 6.08% | 3.74% | 7.78% |
| Baraja infinita: Dealer golpea suave 17 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resultado | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Diez | As |
| BJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% | 30.77% |
| Busto | 35.67% | 37.67% | 39.71% | 41.77% | 43.95% | 26.23% | 24.47% | 22.84% | 22.98% | 20.07% |
| 17 | 13.01% | 12.63% | 12.24% | 11.84% | 11.48% | 36.86% | 12.86% | 12.00% | 12.07% | 8.30% |
| 18 | 13.65% | 13.20% | 12.73% | 12.29% | 11.48% | 13.78% | 35.93% | 12.00% | 12.07% | 20.69% |
| 19 | 13.13% | 12.71% | 12.28% | 11.84% | 11.48% | 7.86% | 12.86% | 35.08% | 12.07% | 20.69% |
| 20 | 12.57% | 12.18% | 11.79% | 11.38% | 11.03% | 7.86% | 6.94% | 12.00% | 37.07% | 20.69% |
| 21 | 11.96% | 11.62% | 11.26% | 10.89% | 10.57% | 7.41% | 6.94% | 6.08% | 3.74% | 9.57% |
También he encontrado valores diferentes para el caso de un número infinito de barajas y que el crupier se pare en las 17.
Tenga en cuenta que todas las columnas deben sumar 100 %. Pero esto no es cierto para las dos últimas columnas (dieces y ases) del diagrama. Tengo valores idénticos para las columnas 2 a 9 pero diferentes para el 10 y el as.
Por lo visto no has leído la descripción al principio de la página. Las columnas de As y Diez son después de que el crupier haya comprobado si hay blackjack y no lo tenga. Ese método es mucho más útil para la mayoría de los propósitos que incluir el blackjack en los totales normales.
Hola,
He calculado las probabilidades de pasarse (con barajas infinitas y el crupier se planta en todos los 17) y algunas de mis cifras difieren de las tuyas. Estoy muy seguro de que las mías son correctas, puedo enviarte mis cálculos en Excel para que los analices si quieres.
Estos son mis resultados para las posibilidades de reventar a los crupieres:
10 21.21%
9 22.84%
8 24.47%
7 26.23%
6 42.32%
5 41.64%
4 38.92%
3 36.17%
2 33.42%
A 11.53%
No, algo falla en tus cálculos. Tus números coinciden con los míos para las cartas boca arriba del crupier de 5,6,7,8 y 9, pero son demasiado bajos para todas las demás cartas boca arriba.
Si quieres un segundo lugar para comparar, ver este hilo y descargar la hoja de cálculo allí:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/knowledge-base/blackjack-theory-and-math/distribution-of-dealer-hands/
Necesito tus cálculos en excel para mi proyecto.
¿Puede enviármelo por correo?
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