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I have another question, I just find out that in your lesson 20 you play $10 min with a $3,000 bankroll. does $3,000 bankroll can be enough for all the loss in one session if I can count and play properly with 1-6 spread ? do I have to take $3,000 cash in my pocket when I am going to play?(silly question for sure but like to know) Thanks,
Ive been playing on your trainer web getting ready to go to the casino. I noticed that amount won many times is not added to the total. I thoutht maybe I was making a mistake but after careful watching of several hundred hands I confirmed that to be the case. Kind of makes me wonder if the rest of the software has a problem.
Check it out and let me know what gives. Great website otherwise.
No, there is no problem with the paying of winning hands in the free game. The confusion comes from the way that your balance increases after the hand, and then immediately decreases again as the next bet is automatically made. Many people only notice the second part and think their balance is going down after a winning hand.
Bonjour Ken
Dans mon casino, les règles du blackjack sont les suivantes : 6 jeux, CSM, D 2 cartes quelconques, DAS, soft 17, abandon anticipé, pas de pic, mais pas d'abandon si le banquier a A. Votre moteur de stratégie de base indique que le banquier a un avantage de -.08%. Cela signifie-t-il que le joueur a .08% contre le banquier ?
Merci.
Si vous vous rendiez complètement tôt, y compris contre un As, ce serait correct. Le joueur aurait un petit avantage.
Cependant, comme vous ne pouvez pas vous rendre contre un As, cela ajoute environ 0,4% à l'avantage de la maison, de sorte que le total effectif est un avantage de la maison d'environ 0,32%.
Hmm, I haven’t thought about this particular question before, and I am not certain how much reduction of bankroll risk would result from playing only in positive counts. But, off the top of my head, I suspect it doesn’t help all that much. Because most of the variance in counting already comes in positive counts (because you are betting quite a bit more in plus counts), eliminating the minimum bet hands in negative counts isn’t going to make much difference. Sorry!
For 8,8Vs10, do you stand at 8 and higher or is it specifically just at 8?
Also, for 9,9Vs7, do you split at 6 and higher or is it specifically just at 6?
I don’t know why the GameMaster did not explicitly state “or higher” on those indexes.
Yes, 88vT stand at +8 or higher, and 99v7 split at +6 or higher.
Hi Ken, I wen to Casino a few time with won and lost, get almost even now. For the novice like me with $1000 in pocket, do you have some suggestion when should I leaving the table? should I set a wining and losing limit? or just one shoe or two or more?
when do you decide your are going to leaving the table?
I always have a tough time answering that question, because experienced players approach the game so differently. I always play games where I have a positive expected value, so the longer I play the more I make. But I also don’t want to wear out my welcome, so I tend to keep my sessions short, at around an hour before moving on. Winning or losing don’t factor into my decision much at all, except when the size of a win or loss starts to look unusual.
For casual players, wins and losses often do have a big impact on how long you play, and that is not necessarily a bad thing. It can feel devastating to have a nice win early in a session and yet give it all back and end up a big loser. If you aren’t pretty experienced at the game and can take those kinds of results in stride with just a shrug of the shoulders, you will likely benefit from having a win limit. Likewise, a loss limit can prevent a terrible crushing loss. If you are counting and playing a positive game, any kind of limit that makes you leave early will cost you playing time, and therefore some profit potential. But it is likely worth it for most player’s mental game.
I get that it is best to leave when the count goes south. However, what if you are playing at smaller venues with only one or two tables open? Is it not at all advisable to sit through the low points of a shoe while betting the minimum and waiting for it to heat up? I am new at this, but obsessed. I can’t seem to give up blackjack, so learning to count is the only option for me, but most of the games in the area don’t get enough action and often times I have little choice but to forge through the low points.
Skipping out on the worst negative counts in a shoe game really boosts your results, so it is worth trying to make that happen.
If you play six decks and cannot table-hop, at least time your breaks for when the count gets really terrible.
If you can play 2-deck games instead, you can afford to sit through everything.
Just to describe it more fully… With 12v5, if the true count is worse than -1, you should hit. That means at negative true counts such as -2 or -3, you should hit. The negative count is telling you that there are excess small cards left, decreasing the chance that you will bust by hitting, and also decreasing the chance that the dealer will bust. At a true count of -1 or better (-1, 0, +1, etc), you should stand. Note that this corresponds with basic strategy, which says to stand with 12v5.
You also asked “Why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?” If I understand the question correctly, just think back to the number line in school where you probably first saw negative numbers… -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5. So yes, -1 is higher than -3.
I recently had some feedback from “Ours LV” suggesting that using the terms “better” or “worse”, would be less confusing for some readers than “higher” or “lower”. I agree. If I revamp the GameMaster’s lessons, I will likely make that switch.
I answered a similar question recently here: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-08-money-management-part-2/#comment-23543
The idea of taking a shot with a too-small bankroll is often referred to as a “Hail Mary” bankroll. If you are willing to accept the risk of losing it all and then having to raise another bank, it’s a viable plan. Just don’t get yourself into a situation where you don’t have enough bankroll left to split and double appropriately.
Here’s a great page on the cut card effect and the impact it has: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects1.htm
I see why your version sounds plausible, but it’s not quite what happens. Think of it this way instead… If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, you are more likely to have to play an extra hand or two after all those good cards are already gone.
Note that the effect is not dependent on any particular penetration. It exists any time the game uses a fixed shuffle point.
I think this has been answered often enough in the comments on this thread. But, being ever the optimist, I’ll make one more foray into it…
People who think that third base can effect their chances are basically espousing this belief: “If the dealer gets the next card off the deck, all is well, but if the dealer gets the second card off the deck instead (after third base takes a card), the dealer is more likely to beat the whole table.” Surely when I state it that way you can see that this is nonsense. If not, well, just believe whatever you like and we’ll leave it at that.
The GameMaster originally used these lessons in a weekly course, so one lesson a week is a reasonable plan. However, since the material varies widely in its breadth lesson by lesson, you can easily just adapt the schedule to your progress.
Thank you very much for your prompt replying.
I have another question, I just find out that in your lesson 20 you play $10 min with a $3,000 bankroll. does $3,000 bankroll can be enough for all the loss in one session if I can count and play properly with 1-6 spread ? do I have to take $3,000 cash in my pocket when I am going to play?(silly question for sure but like to know) Thanks,
You will not need $3000 in one session with a max bet of $60. I would recommend $1000.
Ive been playing on your trainer web getting ready to go to the casino. I noticed that amount won many times is not added to the total. I thoutht maybe I was making a mistake but after careful watching of several hundred hands I confirmed that to be the case. Kind of makes me wonder if the rest of the software has a problem.
Check it out and let me know what gives. Great website otherwise.
No, there is no problem with the paying of winning hands in the free game. The confusion comes from the way that your balance increases after the hand, and then immediately decreases again as the next bet is automatically made. Many people only notice the second part and think their balance is going down after a winning hand.
Bonjour Ken
Dans mon casino, les règles du blackjack sont les suivantes : 6 jeux, CSM, D 2 cartes quelconques, DAS, soft 17, abandon anticipé, pas de pic, mais pas d'abandon si le banquier a A. Votre moteur de stratégie de base indique que le banquier a un avantage de -.08%. Cela signifie-t-il que le joueur a .08% contre le banquier ?
Merci.
Si vous vous rendiez complètement tôt, y compris contre un As, ce serait correct. Le joueur aurait un petit avantage.
Cependant, comme vous ne pouvez pas vous rendre contre un As, cela ajoute environ 0,4% à l'avantage de la maison, de sorte que le total effectif est un avantage de la maison d'environ 0,32%.
Merci M. Smith. Maintenant je sais pourquoi je suis encore en train de perdre ! Ha Ha !
Bonjour Ken,
have a question. if i play only with positive counts (TC>=2), my bankroll could be smaller than 50 top bets adviced in this lesson?
Hmm, I haven’t thought about this particular question before, and I am not certain how much reduction of bankroll risk would result from playing only in positive counts. But, off the top of my head, I suspect it doesn’t help all that much. Because most of the variance in counting already comes in positive counts (because you are betting quite a bit more in plus counts), eliminating the minimum bet hands in negative counts isn’t going to make much difference. Sorry!
For 8,8Vs10, do you stand at 8 and higher or is it specifically just at 8?
Also, for 9,9Vs7, do you split at 6 and higher or is it specifically just at 6?
I don’t know why the GameMaster did not explicitly state “or higher” on those indexes.
Yes, 88vT stand at +8 or higher, and 99v7 split at +6 or higher.
Hi Ken, I wen to Casino a few time with won and lost, get almost even now. For the novice like me with $1000 in pocket, do you have some suggestion when should I leaving the table? should I set a wining and losing limit? or just one shoe or two or more?
when do you decide your are going to leaving the table?
Thank you very much for all your reply.
I always have a tough time answering that question, because experienced players approach the game so differently. I always play games where I have a positive expected value, so the longer I play the more I make. But I also don’t want to wear out my welcome, so I tend to keep my sessions short, at around an hour before moving on. Winning or losing don’t factor into my decision much at all, except when the size of a win or loss starts to look unusual.
For casual players, wins and losses often do have a big impact on how long you play, and that is not necessarily a bad thing. It can feel devastating to have a nice win early in a session and yet give it all back and end up a big loser. If you aren’t pretty experienced at the game and can take those kinds of results in stride with just a shrug of the shoulders, you will likely benefit from having a win limit. Likewise, a loss limit can prevent a terrible crushing loss. If you are counting and playing a positive game, any kind of limit that makes you leave early will cost you playing time, and therefore some profit potential. But it is likely worth it for most player’s mental game.
I get that it is best to leave when the count goes south. However, what if you are playing at smaller venues with only one or two tables open? Is it not at all advisable to sit through the low points of a shoe while betting the minimum and waiting for it to heat up? I am new at this, but obsessed. I can’t seem to give up blackjack, so learning to count is the only option for me, but most of the games in the area don’t get enough action and often times I have little choice but to forge through the low points.
Skipping out on the worst negative counts in a shoe game really boosts your results, so it is worth trying to make that happen.
If you play six decks and cannot table-hop, at least time your breaks for when the count gets really terrible.
If you can play 2-deck games instead, you can afford to sit through everything.
Just to describe it more fully… With 12v5, if the true count is worse than -1, you should hit. That means at negative true counts such as -2 or -3, you should hit. The negative count is telling you that there are excess small cards left, decreasing the chance that you will bust by hitting, and also decreasing the chance that the dealer will bust. At a true count of -1 or better (-1, 0, +1, etc), you should stand. Note that this corresponds with basic strategy, which says to stand with 12v5.
You also asked “Why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?” If I understand the question correctly, just think back to the number line in school where you probably first saw negative numbers… -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5. So yes, -1 is higher than -3.
I recently had some feedback from “Ours LV” suggesting that using the terms “better” or “worse”, would be less confusing for some readers than “higher” or “lower”. I agree. If I revamp the GameMaster’s lessons, I will likely make that switch.
I answered a similar question recently here:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-08-money-management-part-2/#comment-23543
The idea of taking a shot with a too-small bankroll is often referred to as a “Hail Mary” bankroll. If you are willing to accept the risk of losing it all and then having to raise another bank, it’s a viable plan. Just don’t get yourself into a situation where you don’t have enough bankroll left to split and double appropriately.
Here’s a great page on the cut card effect and the impact it has:
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects1.htm
I see why your version sounds plausible, but it’s not quite what happens. Think of it this way instead… If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, you are more likely to have to play an extra hand or two after all those good cards are already gone.
Note that the effect is not dependent on any particular penetration. It exists any time the game uses a fixed shuffle point.
I think this has been answered often enough in the comments on this thread. But, being ever the optimist, I’ll make one more foray into it…
People who think that third base can effect their chances are basically espousing this belief: “If the dealer gets the next card off the deck, all is well, but if the dealer gets the second card off the deck instead (after third base takes a card), the dealer is more likely to beat the whole table.” Surely when I state it that way you can see that this is nonsense. If not, well, just believe whatever you like and we’ll leave it at that.
The GameMaster originally used these lessons in a weekly course, so one lesson a week is a reasonable plan. However, since the material varies widely in its breadth lesson by lesson, you can easily just adapt the schedule to your progress.