Here are all the comments posted on the site, with the most recent discussions listed first. To participate in any of these discussions, you can reply on the article page.
O ken o ken !!u know what i understand?and please feel free to tell me if i am wrong.its very very hard to beat the game !!what i mean …u tell that to beat 6deck game we need large spread.very logical.but large spreads bring heat to the table… and except bankroll someone needs perfect counting and a lots of hours and some little but some good luck/variance most for mental support !how ever the world of card counting and the how u see the game after knowing is priceless.for one more time thanks a lot !
Ok maybe i am the only idiot person in here but can u please give me in simple words the diffrence betwinn the meaning of the “standard deviation ” and the “variance”.and also the safety bankroll of the 3000dollars for spread of 5/60dollars make zero the percent of everything goes wrong and u loose all tour money or no?and if no what is the safety bankroll u need for never run out of money with 5/60spread
I’m tied up with a major move at the moment, and have no time to research each question that you arrive at, one by one. Get yourself some software and test these questions yourself. I’ve been pretty generous with my time so far, but I just cannot continue. Note that the Knowledge Base here has a couple hundred thousand messages to peruse.
I don’t really get why you should start doubling on an 11 vs the dealers A when the count is 1. Both you and the dealer basicly have an “11” so the count favours both equally. But you only get 1 extra card while the dealer can keep on hitting. Shouldn’t that give the dealer a little edge over you?
I know its not that important but im just curious why this starts becomming a profitable play. Is it maybe because the dealer busts more often?
It does seem confusing. Here’s the trick. The dealer with an Ace up already has a face-down card, and we know that it is not a ten. In the normal US “peek” game, the dealer checks under the Ace to see if he has blackjack before play resumes. So we know that the first card added to his “11” in the form of his Ace upcard can not be the best possible draw of ten. The player’s starting hand of 11 still has the opportunity to draw a ten immediately to make 21.
Yes, the dealer’s hands also improve in high counts. But high counts favor the player more than the dealer because we get 3:2 on blackjack, and the dealer wins only even money. And we can stand on stiffs while the dealer must hit them. And we are more likely to succeed when we get a chance to double down in high counts, even though we will have fewer such opportunities. The game is full of subtleties.
Are you better off playing a single deck game with a 6:5 payout where you can count and increase your bet depending on the count or a six deck game with a 3:2 payout playing only basic strategy (not counting)? I can count a single deck perfectly but not a six deck shoe.
Because the starting house advantage is so much higher in single deck 6:5, it’s tough to spread enough to overcome the house edge. It takes a true count of around +5 just to break even. You’ll spend most of your time minimum-betting as a result, and those bets get expensive when blackjack pays only 6:5. Yes, you can beat this game with a big enough spread, but there are always easier games to beat.
Instead of just settling for basic strategy six-deck play, have you considered learning KO instead of Hi-Lo? It eliminates the need to convert to a true count.
Thanks for the advice, much appreciated. I am currently using KO. I’m fairly new to counting. With a single deck game, I can count, have two different conversations, and watch the casino TV. without losing the count. I guess I just need to practice more at home with a six deck shoe to be able to do the same. Thanks again.
Hello to everyone.last night i jump in a bj game that i was already counting with out playing.the numbers was very hot.rc +19 with 3 decks more to be played.on the table me and the dealer only.i make two bets of 20 euro each and the party begins.5 first card guess what !!! Faces and 10.so i have 20 and 20 and the dealer jas 10 and ….. he takes the ace!! Second round … again two boxes/bets of 15 euro and here we go again.i took 2 face cards in the first box second box an ace and an 8 and the dealer gets an ace !incurances he asks!!! And of course i put the bet.+3 tc i was calculate.and the hard time comes again … cards for the dealer again an ace (goodbye insurance)and an 9.a 9 !!!! 9 !!!! Total 21 !!! Just to loose and my bets and my incurance !!!that time i was so angry !!now i just see the maths.shit happens ?????
I play at a casino with the following rules (Quebec): Table minimum is $20.
Natural pays 3 to 2 8 Decks 75% to 80% penetration Dealer hits soft 17 Double any two cards allowed Double after split allowed No Surrender Dealer peeks Insurance available on dealer face up A Splitting limited to a max of 4 times No moves allowed after splitting Aces (stand,stand) If dealer and player land a natural blackjack, the play is a push (Not sure on this last one, I may be wrong and they may still pay out 3 to 2.)
These are very typical 8-deck rules. I recommend either KO or Hi-Lo, with a spread of 1 to 12 or better. In the case of minimum bets, that would be $20 to $240, so just make it $20 to $250. You’ll need a bank of about $25K to safely use that spread. If you can’t afford that level, you will need to backcount if possible, or at a minimum leave in most negative counts.
These rules have been very discouraging! I’ll proceed with the Hi-Lo because I’ve been practising it with these rules for about a year now and I’ve developed a high degree of comfort keeping the running count and playing perfect basic strategy. Unfortunately, both playing sims at home (kitchen table style) and at the house, we seem to be on a downward & losing curve, but it’s difficult to judge because I don’t think we’ve reached the long run by far 😛
Luckily, I play with a team of 3 so back-counting might be viable 🙂 and the recommendation you’ve provided as far as bet spread and bank roll really puts things into perspective!
It’s too bad there’s not another table with different rules within 400KMs of where I live… the house we play at might have up to 3 different tables open at once but on the bright side, its a smaller casino and its a lot more calm than most.
Why are you telling people to follow basic strategy if they’re to be counting cards? They shouldn’t be following a simple hit-stand-double-split table, there should be a threshold in many entries. Like you double 10 against 10 if the truecount is over 4, you double 10 against A if the truecount is over 3, you hit 16 against 10 if the count is 0 or negative, stand if anything positive, double 11 against A if truecount is positive, don’t if 0 or negative, etc. I think it’s counterproductive to learn these things as fixed entries, they’re functions. It’s just, that “basic strategy” is the value of those functions when the truecount is 0. It is important to learn how close the thresholds are to 0 at the very least, which ones are borderline decisions. For one thing, you want the casino to think you’re a superstitious fruitcake. I do that all the time, I’ll be like “I know I shouldn’t, but I’m going to hit on this” (talking about hitting 13 against 3, with the truecount below negative 2 and 2 thirds) or “no way am I doubling, I’ve got a bad feeling about this” (10 against 9, count is -2 or lower), “I’m a do it! I shouldn’t but I’ll do it!” (splitting 9’s against an ace with a truecount over 3). And the funny thing is, it doesn’t hurt the optimality that badly if you don’t hold to the threshold exactly, so maybe sometimes you’ll split 9’s against an ace if the truecount is only 2.5, another time, maybe you won’t if it’s 3.5.
You see there are two things here. Risk of ruin, and optimization of the expectation of the logarithm of your bankroll.
Bottom line: if you have less than 10 thousand dollars, do NOT use your bankroll in the calculation of your bet amount. Bet as if you had 10 thousand dollars. That’s under GOOD conditions. 15 dollar min bet on a 2-deck game, 5 dollar min bet on a 6-deck game. This depends on the exact conditions you’ll meet, of course.
The minimum bet completely ruins the assumptions you use to produce these results. Imagine if you only had 1000 dollars and the minimum bet was 25, 2 deck game. Chances are good you’re going to lose your money. BUT you’re definitely playing a losing game if you decide your optimal bet is 5 dollars (half a percent of your money) for every 1 the true count is past 1! (It’s actually more like 1.8, I just use 2). You won’t even bet more than the minimum except very occasionally if you do that, and you need to frequently bet more for the odds to be in your favor. It should stand to reason that’s a losing game there. There are two methods of play – you can minimize risk of ruin, which means betting as if you had about 10 thousand dollars no matter how little or much you have, and in that case, you can expect linear gains, but exponentially decreasing risk of ruin. OR – you shouldn’t do this unless you have more than 10k – your bet size is dependent on your bankroll, in which case you can expect exponential gains, and linearly decreasing risk of ruin as your bankroll grows. You have those 2 choices. Now me, I have little money, and I play to minimize risk of ruin. And let tell you the correct way of doing this, to do that. You are forced to bet the minimum no matter what. But what you should do is bet twice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 2 deck game, and thrice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 6 deck game.
So if the min bet is 25, in a 2 deck game, you bet 25 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 75. If it’s 4, you bet 125.
If the min bet is 5, in a 6 deck game, you bet 5 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 20. If it’s 4, you bet 35. If it’s 5, you bet 50.
That’s how you minimize risk of ruin. I have done extensive calculations to arrive at this result. The minimum bet completely ruins the simplicity of calculating kelly optimality, it makes risk of ruin something positive instead of 0, just like stock market broker fees ruin strategies that are strictly in proportional to your bankroll in the stock market, if you don’t have enough money, you need to make bigger bets than you would otherwise make, in either case.
Also, almost never leave in the middle of a shoe. You can do it occasionally, if you have a decent excuse, like you’ve been playing a while and it’s not unreasonable for you to leave and take a break. It’s the quickest way to be banned from a casino. That’s how I got banned from my first casino. You need to sit there and take your punishment. Continue betting the minimum, all the way through the shoe, no matter how negative the count gets. You can minimize your losses by memorizing the NEGATIVE decision thresholds. Like I can tell you, hit on hard 14 against 2, 3, 4, 5 if the count goes to -4, -5, -6, -7. Pray you never need to use that information. I actually HAVE. I remember, I hit on a hard 14 against a 5 once, and the next card was a 2, and I said “even I’m not that crazy” and I stood. The irony was that the 2 would have made the dealer bust though. But on average, I did the right thing.
Here’s a link to a discussion: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/knowledge-base/blackjack-variations/match-the-dealer-blackjack-sidebet/ If you ever have to ask whether a sidebet is “a good bet”, the answer is always no. Yes, there are outstanding opportunities afforded by some sidebets under some circumstances, but if you are able to figure out how to beat them, you no longer need to ask about them. So, the answer to that question is always no.
O ken o ken !!u know what i understand?and please feel free to tell me if i am wrong.its very very hard to beat the game !!what i mean …u tell that to beat 6deck game we need large spread.very logical.but large spreads bring heat to the table… and except bankroll someone needs perfect counting and a lots of hours and some little but some good luck/variance most for mental support !how ever the world of card counting and the how u see the game after knowing is priceless.for one more time thanks a lot !
Ok maybe i am the only idiot person in here but can u please give me in simple words the diffrence betwinn the meaning of the “standard deviation ” and the “variance”.and also the safety bankroll of the 3000dollars for spread of 5/60dollars make zero the percent of everything goes wrong and u loose all tour money or no?and if no what is the safety bankroll u need for never run out of money with 5/60spread
I’m tied up with a major move at the moment, and have no time to research each question that you arrive at, one by one. Get yourself some software and test these questions yourself. I’ve been pretty generous with my time so far, but I just cannot continue.
Note that the Knowledge Base here has a couple hundred thousand messages to peruse.
Ok ken i understand.thanks again for all your answers and hope to follow u in something new!!
I don’t really get why you should start doubling on an 11 vs the dealers A when the count is 1. Both you and the dealer basicly have an “11” so the count favours both equally. But you only get 1 extra card while the dealer can keep on hitting. Shouldn’t that give the dealer a little edge over you?
I know its not that important but im just curious why this starts becomming a profitable play. Is it maybe because the dealer busts more often?
Thanks and great work, love this site
It does seem confusing. Here’s the trick. The dealer with an Ace up already has a face-down card, and we know that it is not a ten. In the normal US “peek” game, the dealer checks under the Ace to see if he has blackjack before play resumes. So we know that the first card added to his “11” in the form of his Ace upcard can not be the best possible draw of ten. The player’s starting hand of 11 still has the opportunity to draw a ten immediately to make 21.
Oh now i get it. Thanks men know I can sleep peacefully again 🙂
Oh and also, as the count gets bigger the dealer starts getting more Blackjacks which beats a regular “21” right?
Yes, the dealer’s hands also improve in high counts. But high counts favor the player more than the dealer because we get 3:2 on blackjack, and the dealer wins only even money. And we can stand on stiffs while the dealer must hit them. And we are more likely to succeed when we get a chance to double down in high counts, even though we will have fewer such opportunities. The game is full of subtleties.
Are you better off playing a single deck game with a 6:5 payout where you can count and increase your bet depending on the count or a six deck game with a 3:2 payout playing only basic strategy (not counting)? I can count a single deck perfectly but not a six deck shoe.
Because the starting house advantage is so much higher in single deck 6:5, it’s tough to spread enough to overcome the house edge. It takes a true count of around +5 just to break even. You’ll spend most of your time minimum-betting as a result, and those bets get expensive when blackjack pays only 6:5. Yes, you can beat this game with a big enough spread, but there are always easier games to beat.
Instead of just settling for basic strategy six-deck play, have you considered learning KO instead of Hi-Lo? It eliminates the need to convert to a true count.
Thanks for the advice, much appreciated. I am currently using KO. I’m fairly new to counting. With a single deck game, I can count, have two different conversations, and watch the casino TV. without losing the count. I guess I just need to practice more at home with a six deck shoe to be able to do the same. Thanks again.
Hello to everyone.last night i jump in a bj game that i was already counting with out playing.the numbers was very hot.rc +19 with 3 decks more to be played.on the table me and the dealer only.i make two bets of 20 euro each and the party begins.5 first card guess what !!! Faces and 10.so i have 20 and 20 and the dealer jas 10 and ….. he takes the ace!! Second round … again two boxes/bets of 15 euro and here we go again.i took 2 face cards in the first box second box an ace and an 8 and the dealer gets an ace !incurances he asks!!! And of course i put the bet.+3 tc i was calculate.and the hard time comes again … cards for the dealer again an ace (goodbye insurance)and an 9.a 9 !!!! 9 !!!! Total 21 !!! Just to loose and my bets and my incurance !!!that time i was so angry !!now i just see the maths.shit happens ?????
Hi Ken,
I play at a casino with the following rules (Quebec):
Table minimum is $20.
Natural pays 3 to 2
8 Decks
75% to 80% penetration
Dealer hits soft 17
Double any two cards allowed
Double after split allowed
No Surrender
Dealer peeks
Insurance available on dealer face up A
Splitting limited to a max of 4 times
No moves allowed after splitting Aces (stand,stand)
If dealer and player land a natural blackjack, the play is a push (Not sure on this last one, I may be wrong and they may still pay out 3 to 2.)
How do you recommend we beat this setup?
These are very typical 8-deck rules. I recommend either KO or Hi-Lo, with a spread of 1 to 12 or better. In the case of minimum bets, that would be $20 to $240, so just make it $20 to $250. You’ll need a bank of about $25K to safely use that spread. If you can’t afford that level, you will need to backcount if possible, or at a minimum leave in most negative counts.
Thanks for the reply, Ken!
These rules have been very discouraging! I’ll proceed with the Hi-Lo because I’ve been practising it with these rules for about a year now and I’ve developed a high degree of comfort keeping the running count and playing perfect basic strategy. Unfortunately, both playing sims at home (kitchen table style) and at the house, we seem to be on a downward & losing curve, but it’s difficult to judge because I don’t think we’ve reached the long run by far 😛
Luckily, I play with a team of 3 so back-counting might be viable 🙂 and the recommendation you’ve provided as far as bet spread and bank roll really puts things into perspective!
It’s too bad there’s not another table with different rules within 400KMs of where I live… the house we play at might have up to 3 different tables open at once but on the bright side, its a smaller casino and its a lot more calm than most.
Why are you telling people to follow basic strategy if they’re to be counting cards? They shouldn’t be following a simple hit-stand-double-split table, there should be a threshold in many entries. Like you double 10 against 10 if the truecount is over 4, you double 10 against A if the truecount is over 3, you hit 16 against 10 if the count is 0 or negative, stand if anything positive, double 11 against A if truecount is positive, don’t if 0 or negative, etc. I think it’s counterproductive to learn these things as fixed entries, they’re functions. It’s just, that “basic strategy” is the value of those functions when the truecount is 0. It is important to learn how close the thresholds are to 0 at the very least, which ones are borderline decisions. For one thing, you want the casino to think you’re a superstitious fruitcake. I do that all the time, I’ll be like “I know I shouldn’t, but I’m going to hit on this” (talking about hitting 13 against 3, with the truecount below negative 2 and 2 thirds) or “no way am I doubling, I’ve got a bad feeling about this” (10 against 9, count is -2 or lower), “I’m a do it! I shouldn’t but I’ll do it!” (splitting 9’s against an ace with a truecount over 3). And the funny thing is, it doesn’t hurt the optimality that badly if you don’t hold to the threshold exactly, so maybe sometimes you’ll split 9’s against an ace if the truecount is only 2.5, another time, maybe you won’t if it’s 3.5.
You’re doing this wrong in principle.
You see there are two things here. Risk of ruin, and optimization of the expectation of the logarithm of your bankroll.
Bottom line: if you have less than 10 thousand dollars, do NOT use your bankroll in the calculation of your bet amount. Bet as if you had 10 thousand dollars. That’s under GOOD conditions. 15 dollar min bet on a 2-deck game, 5 dollar min bet on a 6-deck game. This depends on the exact conditions you’ll meet, of course.
The minimum bet completely ruins the assumptions you use to produce these results. Imagine if you only had 1000 dollars and the minimum bet was 25, 2 deck game. Chances are good you’re going to lose your money. BUT you’re definitely playing a losing game if you decide your optimal bet is 5 dollars (half a percent of your money) for every 1 the true count is past 1! (It’s actually more like 1.8, I just use 2). You won’t even bet more than the minimum except very occasionally if you do that, and you need to frequently bet more for the odds to be in your favor. It should stand to reason that’s a losing game there. There are two methods of play – you can minimize risk of ruin, which means betting as if you had about 10 thousand dollars no matter how little or much you have, and in that case, you can expect linear gains, but exponentially decreasing risk of ruin. OR – you shouldn’t do this unless you have more than 10k – your bet size is dependent on your bankroll, in which case you can expect exponential gains, and linearly decreasing risk of ruin as your bankroll grows. You have those 2 choices. Now me, I have little money, and I play to minimize risk of ruin. And let tell you the correct way of doing this, to do that. You are forced to bet the minimum no matter what. But what you should do is bet twice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 2 deck game, and thrice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 6 deck game.
So if the min bet is 25, in a 2 deck game, you bet 25 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 75. If it’s 4, you bet 125.
If the min bet is 5, in a 6 deck game, you bet 5 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 20. If it’s 4, you bet 35. If it’s 5, you bet 50.
That’s how you minimize risk of ruin. I have done extensive calculations to arrive at this result. The minimum bet completely ruins the simplicity of calculating kelly optimality, it makes risk of ruin something positive instead of 0, just like stock market broker fees ruin strategies that are strictly in proportional to your bankroll in the stock market, if you don’t have enough money, you need to make bigger bets than you would otherwise make, in either case.
Also, almost never leave in the middle of a shoe. You can do it occasionally, if you have a decent excuse, like you’ve been playing a while and it’s not unreasonable for you to leave and take a break. It’s the quickest way to be banned from a casino. That’s how I got banned from my first casino. You need to sit there and take your punishment. Continue betting the minimum, all the way through the shoe, no matter how negative the count gets. You can minimize your losses by memorizing the NEGATIVE decision thresholds. Like I can tell you, hit on hard 14 against 2, 3, 4, 5 if the count goes to -4, -5, -6, -7. Pray you never need to use that information. I actually HAVE. I remember, I hit on a hard 14 against a 5 once, and the next card was a 2, and I said “even I’m not that crazy” and I stood. The irony was that the 2 would have made the dealer bust though. But on average, I did the right thing.
Here’s a link to a discussion: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/knowledge-base/blackjack-variations/match-the-dealer-blackjack-sidebet/
If you ever have to ask whether a sidebet is “a good bet”, the answer is always no. Yes, there are outstanding opportunities afforded by some sidebets under some circumstances, but if you are able to figure out how to beat them, you no longer need to ask about them. So, the answer to that question is always no.