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Why are you telling people to follow basic strategy if they’re to be counting cards? They shouldn’t be following a simple hit-stand-double-split table, there should be a threshold in many entries. Like you double 10 against 10 if the truecount is over 4, you double 10 against A if the truecount is over 3, you hit 16 against 10 if the count is 0 or negative, stand if anything positive, double 11 against A if truecount is positive, don’t if 0 or negative, etc. I think it’s counterproductive to learn these things as fixed entries, they’re functions. It’s just, that “basic strategy” is the value of those functions when the truecount is 0. It is important to learn how close the thresholds are to 0 at the very least, which ones are borderline decisions. For one thing, you want the casino to think you’re a superstitious fruitcake. I do that all the time, I’ll be like “I know I shouldn’t, but I’m going to hit on this” (talking about hitting 13 against 3, with the truecount below negative 2 and 2 thirds) or “no way am I doubling, I’ve got a bad feeling about this” (10 against 9, count is -2 or lower), “I’m a do it! I shouldn’t but I’ll do it!” (splitting 9’s against an ace with a truecount over 3). And the funny thing is, it doesn’t hurt the optimality that badly if you don’t hold to the threshold exactly, so maybe sometimes you’ll split 9’s against an ace if the truecount is only 2.5, another time, maybe you won’t if it’s 3.5.
C’mon, it’s lesson ONE. You’ll get to all these strategy variations in later lessons.
I absolutely encourage EVERY player to start by learning basic strategy so completely that it is automatic. The variations are easy to add later, but you MUST have the basics down before muddying the waters.
You see there are two things here. Risk of ruin, and optimization of the expectation of the logarithm of your bankroll.
Bottom line: if you have less than 10 thousand dollars, do NOT use your bankroll in the calculation of your bet amount. Bet as if you had 10 thousand dollars. That’s under GOOD conditions. 15 dollar min bet on a 2-deck game, 5 dollar min bet on a 6-deck game. This depends on the exact conditions you’ll meet, of course.
The minimum bet completely ruins the assumptions you use to produce these results. Imagine if you only had 1000 dollars and the minimum bet was 25, 2 deck game. Chances are good you’re going to lose your money. BUT you’re definitely playing a losing game if you decide your optimal bet is 5 dollars (half a percent of your money) for every 1 the true count is past 1! (It’s actually more like 1.8, I just use 2). You won’t even bet more than the minimum except very occasionally if you do that, and you need to frequently bet more for the odds to be in your favor. It should stand to reason that’s a losing game there. There are two methods of play – you can minimize risk of ruin, which means betting as if you had about 10 thousand dollars no matter how little or much you have, and in that case, you can expect linear gains, but exponentially decreasing risk of ruin. OR – you shouldn’t do this unless you have more than 10k – your bet size is dependent on your bankroll, in which case you can expect exponential gains, and linearly decreasing risk of ruin as your bankroll grows. You have those 2 choices. Now me, I have little money, and I play to minimize risk of ruin. And let tell you the correct way of doing this, to do that. You are forced to bet the minimum no matter what. But what you should do is bet twice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 2 deck game, and thrice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 6 deck game.
So if the min bet is 25, in a 2 deck game, you bet 25 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 75. If it’s 4, you bet 125.
If the min bet is 5, in a 6 deck game, you bet 5 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 20. If it’s 4, you bet 35. If it’s 5, you bet 50.
That’s how you minimize risk of ruin. I have done extensive calculations to arrive at this result. The minimum bet completely ruins the simplicity of calculating kelly optimality, it makes risk of ruin something positive instead of 0, just like stock market broker fees ruin strategies that are strictly in proportional to your bankroll in the stock market, if you don’t have enough money, you need to make bigger bets than you would otherwise make, in either case.
Also, almost never leave in the middle of a shoe. You can do it occasionally, if you have a decent excuse, like you’ve been playing a while and it’s not unreasonable for you to leave and take a break. It’s the quickest way to be banned from a casino. That’s how I got banned from my first casino. You need to sit there and take your punishment. Continue betting the minimum, all the way through the shoe, no matter how negative the count gets. You can minimize your losses by memorizing the NEGATIVE decision thresholds. Like I can tell you, hit on hard 14 against 2, 3, 4, 5 if the count goes to -4, -5, -6, -7. Pray you never need to use that information. I actually HAVE. I remember, I hit on a hard 14 against a 5 once, and the next card was a 2, and I said “even I’m not that crazy” and I stood. The irony was that the 2 would have made the dealer bust though. But on average, I did the right thing.
Jennabenna fan in your website for a long time I know you’re from the same area that I am is there any possible way you could Meetup a young counter we’re not somewhat Young just learned everything on my own and really need someone to come to me had 4 back surgeries and I’ve got to get this down to make a living I don’t have no retirement paid in we’re just a long story to that too but I love your website and that the option that you give people to make a living or offset their income I would look forward to hearing from you and if you would not meet with me or show me I would understand but I am not be willing to pay
You are probably hoping to contact the Gamemaster, but click here to see the latest info I have on him.
As for me, I’m in Mississippi, soon to be Texas. However, I am sorry to say I don’t do any personal tutoring.
Going to Vegas in Sept. I have basic strategy down. I need a counting system that I can manage and Hi/Lo isn’t it. I’ve tried 5/Ace. I’m interested in your program but honestly, I REALLY need to know what the most common table rules are for 5/10 min. tables before I invest in another program.
If you are going to just play basic strategy, you can find $5/$10 tables in lots of places with continuous shuffle machines. If you plan to count, you will need to look a lot harder to find decent regular shuffled games at that level. The first thing to check is make sure that blackjack pays 3:2, not 6:5. Check TI for some decent low-limit blackjack tables, or look downtown. The rules are generally going to be 6 deck or 8 deck, dealer hits soft 17, no surrender.
I am confused about playing full time and hourly win rates. I see posts and blogs saying that to make so much you need to put in so many hours of play but then i see posts and it is my experience that many sessions are only 1 hour up to 3 hours. When speaking of hourly rate is this actual time played? Sometimes i go to play and cant find a positive profitable shoe for a couple hours. I generally wong out at M1 and find myself watching poker for 15 minutes until i find a table with a new shoe. All in all it seems hard to put in 40 hours a week of actual play. Should i be traveling more? Is full time less than 40 hours? What am i missing? Any reply is appreciated Thanks
Most published “win rate per hour” numbers assume you will play through all those negative counts. When they do not, the author will clearly mention the criteria for leaving the table. That’s an excellent plan by the way, because your results will be much better if you leave in bad counts. 40 hours is tough to maintain anywhere, because if you are playing a winning game you must spread out that much play over multiple casinos or you won’t last long at all before being backed off.
I’ve played an online blackjack that when dealt two Aces automatically changed one of them to count eleven. I didnt catch it at first but sure enough when I drew another card I busted. This particular game would not count both my Aces as one. Is this ever done at a casino?
Yikes! That’s a terrible rule, and one I have never personally seen. I wouldn’t trust any online casino that does such a poor job of implementing blackjack, as I suspect it was just a programmer that didn’t understand even the basics of the game. Who knows what else they are doing wrong! To answer your question, no, this is never done at any casino I have visited.
also, I’ve tried to write a casino a couple times to find out their particular blackjack rules. No response. Should I be able to ask a casino to provide a copy of their rules?
Sam Vaughn is my father. I wish over the years that we could have been closer and he could have taught me some of his “tricks of the trade”. I miss him dearly!! Love you DOD!!
Headed to Vegas next week. Staying at the Monte Carlo. Where can I find a list of the best casinos to play at? 3:2 BJ Payout, Re-Split Aces, DS S17, Deep Deck Penetration, etc?
I was put on a data base for advantage players recently I believe it is called Oregon state surveillance or something along that line. It is a national data base. Does anyone know if you can do anything about that? Any thoughts out there? Thanks
Ken is this bet ramp ok? +1 $10 +2 $50 +3 2X$50=$100 +4 2X$75=$150 +5 or higher im maxing at 2X$100. Played at this particular casino for 2-3 months; been doing well with no pit critter sweat.
Yeah, but if you count then you win back the odds. 99% of black jack players don’t count cards. Very few people even know it’s possible. They believe you have to be an MIT student to count cards, but a high school education is all you really need.
Why are you telling people to follow basic strategy if they’re to be counting cards? They shouldn’t be following a simple hit-stand-double-split table, there should be a threshold in many entries. Like you double 10 against 10 if the truecount is over 4, you double 10 against A if the truecount is over 3, you hit 16 against 10 if the count is 0 or negative, stand if anything positive, double 11 against A if truecount is positive, don’t if 0 or negative, etc. I think it’s counterproductive to learn these things as fixed entries, they’re functions. It’s just, that “basic strategy” is the value of those functions when the truecount is 0. It is important to learn how close the thresholds are to 0 at the very least, which ones are borderline decisions. For one thing, you want the casino to think you’re a superstitious fruitcake. I do that all the time, I’ll be like “I know I shouldn’t, but I’m going to hit on this” (talking about hitting 13 against 3, with the truecount below negative 2 and 2 thirds) or “no way am I doubling, I’ve got a bad feeling about this” (10 against 9, count is -2 or lower), “I’m a do it! I shouldn’t but I’ll do it!” (splitting 9’s against an ace with a truecount over 3). And the funny thing is, it doesn’t hurt the optimality that badly if you don’t hold to the threshold exactly, so maybe sometimes you’ll split 9’s against an ace if the truecount is only 2.5, another time, maybe you won’t if it’s 3.5.
C’mon, it’s lesson ONE. You’ll get to all these strategy variations in later lessons.
I absolutely encourage EVERY player to start by learning basic strategy so completely that it is automatic. The variations are easy to add later, but you MUST have the basics down before muddying the waters.
You’re doing this wrong in principle.
You see there are two things here. Risk of ruin, and optimization of the expectation of the logarithm of your bankroll.
Bottom line: if you have less than 10 thousand dollars, do NOT use your bankroll in the calculation of your bet amount. Bet as if you had 10 thousand dollars. That’s under GOOD conditions. 15 dollar min bet on a 2-deck game, 5 dollar min bet on a 6-deck game. This depends on the exact conditions you’ll meet, of course.
The minimum bet completely ruins the assumptions you use to produce these results. Imagine if you only had 1000 dollars and the minimum bet was 25, 2 deck game. Chances are good you’re going to lose your money. BUT you’re definitely playing a losing game if you decide your optimal bet is 5 dollars (half a percent of your money) for every 1 the true count is past 1! (It’s actually more like 1.8, I just use 2). You won’t even bet more than the minimum except very occasionally if you do that, and you need to frequently bet more for the odds to be in your favor. It should stand to reason that’s a losing game there. There are two methods of play – you can minimize risk of ruin, which means betting as if you had about 10 thousand dollars no matter how little or much you have, and in that case, you can expect linear gains, but exponentially decreasing risk of ruin. OR – you shouldn’t do this unless you have more than 10k – your bet size is dependent on your bankroll, in which case you can expect exponential gains, and linearly decreasing risk of ruin as your bankroll grows. You have those 2 choices. Now me, I have little money, and I play to minimize risk of ruin. And let tell you the correct way of doing this, to do that. You are forced to bet the minimum no matter what. But what you should do is bet twice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 2 deck game, and thrice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 6 deck game.
So if the min bet is 25, in a 2 deck game, you bet 25 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 75. If it’s 4, you bet 125.
If the min bet is 5, in a 6 deck game, you bet 5 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 20. If it’s 4, you bet 35. If it’s 5, you bet 50.
That’s how you minimize risk of ruin. I have done extensive calculations to arrive at this result. The minimum bet completely ruins the simplicity of calculating kelly optimality, it makes risk of ruin something positive instead of 0, just like stock market broker fees ruin strategies that are strictly in proportional to your bankroll in the stock market, if you don’t have enough money, you need to make bigger bets than you would otherwise make, in either case.
Also, almost never leave in the middle of a shoe. You can do it occasionally, if you have a decent excuse, like you’ve been playing a while and it’s not unreasonable for you to leave and take a break. It’s the quickest way to be banned from a casino. That’s how I got banned from my first casino. You need to sit there and take your punishment. Continue betting the minimum, all the way through the shoe, no matter how negative the count gets. You can minimize your losses by memorizing the NEGATIVE decision thresholds. Like I can tell you, hit on hard 14 against 2, 3, 4, 5 if the count goes to -4, -5, -6, -7. Pray you never need to use that information. I actually HAVE. I remember, I hit on a hard 14 against a 5 once, and the next card was a 2, and I said “even I’m not that crazy” and I stood. The irony was that the 2 would have made the dealer bust though. But on average, I did the right thing.
Jennabenna fan in your website for a long time I know you’re from the same area that I am is there any possible way you could Meetup a young counter we’re not somewhat Young just learned everything on my own and really need someone to come to me had 4 back surgeries and I’ve got to get this down to make a living I don’t have no retirement paid in we’re just a long story to that too but I love your website and that the option that you give people to make a living or offset their income I would look forward to hearing from you and if you would not meet with me or show me I would understand but I am not be willing to pay
You are probably hoping to contact the Gamemaster, but click here to see the latest info I have on him.
As for me, I’m in Mississippi, soon to be Texas. However, I am sorry to say I don’t do any personal tutoring.
Going to Vegas in Sept. I have basic strategy down. I need a counting system that I can manage and Hi/Lo isn’t it. I’ve tried 5/Ace. I’m interested in your program but honestly, I REALLY need to know what the most common table rules are for 5/10 min. tables before I invest in another program.
If you are going to just play basic strategy, you can find $5/$10 tables in lots of places with continuous shuffle machines. If you plan to count, you will need to look a lot harder to find decent regular shuffled games at that level. The first thing to check is make sure that blackjack pays 3:2, not 6:5. Check TI for some decent low-limit blackjack tables, or look downtown. The rules are generally going to be 6 deck or 8 deck, dealer hits soft 17, no surrender.
I am confused about playing full time and hourly win rates. I see posts and blogs saying that to make so much you need to put in so many hours of play but then i see posts and it is my experience that many sessions are only 1 hour up to 3 hours. When speaking of hourly rate is this actual time played? Sometimes i go to play and cant find a positive profitable shoe for a couple hours. I generally wong out at M1 and find myself watching poker for 15 minutes until i find a table with a new shoe. All in all it seems hard to put in 40 hours a week of actual play. Should i be traveling more? Is full time less than 40 hours? What am i missing? Any reply is appreciated Thanks
Most published “win rate per hour” numbers assume you will play through all those negative counts. When they do not, the author will clearly mention the criteria for leaving the table. That’s an excellent plan by the way, because your results will be much better if you leave in bad counts. 40 hours is tough to maintain anywhere, because if you are playing a winning game you must spread out that much play over multiple casinos or you won’t last long at all before being backed off.
I’ve played an online blackjack that when dealt two Aces automatically changed one of them to count eleven. I didnt catch it at first but sure enough when I drew another card I busted. This particular game would not count both my Aces as one. Is this ever done at a casino?
Yikes! That’s a terrible rule, and one I have never personally seen. I wouldn’t trust any online casino that does such a poor job of implementing blackjack, as I suspect it was just a programmer that didn’t understand even the basics of the game. Who knows what else they are doing wrong! To answer your question, no, this is never done at any casino I have visited.
also, I’ve tried to write a casino a couple times to find out their particular blackjack rules. No response. Should I be able to ask a casino to provide a copy of their rules?
Where should you sit at the table? or does it matter?
Sam Vaughn is my father. I wish over the years that we could have been closer and he could have taught me some of his “tricks of the trade”. I miss him dearly!! Love you DOD!!
Headed to Vegas next week. Staying at the Monte Carlo. Where can I find a list of the best casinos to play at? 3:2 BJ Payout, Re-Split Aces, DS S17, Deep Deck Penetration, etc?
I was put on a data base for advantage players recently I believe it is called Oregon state surveillance or something along that line. It is a national data base. Does anyone know if you can do anything about that? Any thoughts out there? Thanks
Sorry to contradict your dream of winning a house . In Philippines ,they don’t just use 6 decks but all use CSM !!
Ken is this bet ramp ok? +1 $10 +2 $50 +3 2X$50=$100 +4 2X$75=$150 +5 or higher im maxing at 2X$100. Played at this particular casino for 2-3 months; been doing well with no pit critter sweat.
Yeah, but if you count then you win back the odds. 99% of black jack players don’t count cards. Very few people even know it’s possible. They believe you have to be an MIT student to count cards, but a high school education is all you really need.