luck

Yeah the times I start questioning what luck is are weird sessions like this.

Sitting at the table for hours, not really getting huge bets out, in fact losing most of my biggest bets, but I sit there with steadily growing stack of chips, while everyone else at the table is sinking like a stone. Its like dodging range drops, or defying gravity. Before I know it, I'm up 50 units - I'm thinking where the heck did that come from?

Is it my skill, with my +1% advantage versus their -1% disadvantage that accounts for this? I think not. Is it something more, what some would call luck? In this case, the word luck does not seem particularly apt, seems like something more.

Gamblor said:

Yeah the times I start questioning what luck is are weird sessions like this.

Sitting at the table for hours, not really getting huge bets out, in fact losing most of my biggest bets, but I sit there with steadily growing stack of chips, while everyone else at the table is sinking like a stone. Its like dodging range drops, or defying gravity. Before I know it, I'm up 50 units - I'm thinking where the heck did that come from?

Is it my skill, with my +1% advantage versus their -1% disadvantage that accounts for this? I think not. Is it something more, what some would call luck? In this case, the word luck does not seem particularly apt, seems like something more.

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I have no trouble believing that in all cases it is luck, and by the same token, in all cases it is something more.

Luck is luck!

Luck is just that, Luck. I would rather be lucky than smart anytime.

blackchipjim said:

Luck is just that, Luck. I would rather be lucky than smart anytime.

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Lucky for you! :laugh::whip::whip:

:whip::whip:

Ok first of all there is no such thing as luck. Luck as perceived as a series of events beneficial or detrimental to someone is a subjective notion imposed by whomver is judging. "Good" and "bad" are completely human notions and as such works of imagination, not reality. They are explanations for what we cannot explain, much like Greek Gods. Second of all, quantum mechanics is a subject you need more than a youtube video to understand. People try and apply rules that apply at a quantum level to things that happen on far larger scales. This reasoning is faulty and trying to pass of advanced scientific and mathematical principles as new age mysticism is shameful.

big Inner said:

Ok first of all there is no such thing as luck. Luck as perceived as a series of events beneficial or detrimental to someone is a subjective notion imposed by whomver is judging. "Good" and "bad" are completely human notions and as such works of imagination, not reality. They are explanations for what we cannot explain, much like Greek Gods. Second of all, quantum mechanics is a subject you need more than a youtube video to understand. People try and apply rules that apply at a quantum level to things that happen on far larger scales. This reasoning is faulty and trying to pass of advanced scientific and mathematical principles as new age mysticism is shameful.

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Sir, Wallace Stevens would be rolling over in his grave having read this post.

"She was the single artificer of the world
In which she sang. And when she sang, the sea,
Whatever self it had, became the self
That was her song, for she was the maker. Then we,
As we beheld her striding there alone,
Knew that there never was a world for her
Except the one she sang and, singing, made. "

The Idea of Order at Key West:
http://vserver1.cscs.lsa.umich.edu/~crshalizi/Poetry/Stevens/The_Idea_of_Order_at_Key_West.html

big Inner said:

Ok first of all there is no such thing as luck. Luck as perceived as a series of events beneficial or detrimental to someone is a subjective notion imposed by whomver is judging. "Good" and "bad" are completely human notions and as such works of imagination, not reality. They are explanations for what we cannot explain, much like Greek Gods. Second of all, quantum mechanics is a subject you need more than a youtube video to understand. People try and apply rules that apply at a quantum level to things that happen on far larger scales. This reasoning is faulty and trying to pass of advanced scientific and mathematical principles as new age mysticism is shameful.

Click to expand...

A rose by any other name smells the same.

big Inner said:

Ok first of all there is no such thing as luck. Luck as perceived as a series of events beneficial or detrimental to someone is a subjective notion imposed by whomver is judging. "Good" and "bad" are completely human notions and as such works of imagination, not reality. They are explanations for what we cannot explain, much like Greek Gods. Second of all, quantum mechanics is a subject you need more than a youtube video to understand. People try and apply rules that apply at a quantum level to things that happen on far larger scales. This reasoning is faulty and trying to pass of advanced scientific and mathematical principles as new age mysticism is shameful.

Click to expand...

errrh well, that's one take on luck, another that i like is equating it with standard deviation. that said i'm not really sure what standard deviation is, errhh well i think it's a mathematical treatment of data fluctuation about the mean, maybe? so but, that fluctuation stuff, it's real, been there, experienced that, lol. expected value, errhh, i'm thinkin that's another mathematical treatment of data, sorta thing. doesn't seem real either. seems more like mathematically contrived abstract stuff to me than really stuff that's happened. not knocking all that in anyway, it's a great measure of stuff that's happen or that's likely to happen, definitely that stuff is all great tools for really thinking about and understanding all kinds of stuff.
so but one can figure how many standard deviations one is from one's expected value and qualitatively view that as a measure of how lucky or unlucky one has been. i mean heck, what's so wrong about trying to think of things in qualitative simplified terms?
far as the quantum mechanical musing that goes on, it always mystifies me how often such musings are pointed at as if it were the ravings of a lunatic or something. just me maybe, i often enough find pondering over things i don't fully understand or maybe problem solving situations, maybe some sort of creative stuff, those sort of things to be enriched by analogies of science, nature, errhh what have you.
lmao, for instance, i think i really got a hoot out of that poem Gamblor just posted...

sagefr0g said:

far as the quantum mechanical musing that goes on, it always mystifies me how often such musings are pointed at as if it were the ravings of a lunatic or something. just me maybe, i often enough find pondering over things i don't fully understand or maybe problem solving situations, maybe some sort of creative stuff, those sort of things to be enriched by analogies of science, nature, errhh what have you.

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Yeah, we better watch out for these crazy mystical people such as Dr. Wolf, Niels Bohr, and Wolfgang Pauli and their youtube video understanding of QM!

I'd rather be lucky than good :grin:

I've been pretty lucky lately.

And then I read this thread. Now I have hit a very unlucky patch.
Therefore, this IS an UNlucky thread! Talking about luck makes me
unlucky! How likely is that!?

Gamblor said:

Yeah, we better watch out for these crazy mystical people such as Dr. Wolf, Niels Bohr, and Wolfgang Pauli and their youtube video understanding of QM!

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not to mention stuff gleaned from kewl poetry links:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=232729&postcount=113
:eyepatch::whip:

gamblingghost said:

And then I read this thread. Now I have hit a very unlucky patch.
Therefore, this IS an UNlucky thread! Talking about luck makes me
unlucky! How likely is that!?

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Yeah seems to happen like that sometimes Maybe don't think so much about luck, unthink such thoughts.

Gamblor said:

Yeah seems to happen like that sometimes Maybe don't think so much about luck, unthink such thoughts.

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Well, this seems to be a daunting task! Can a person, 'unthink' and 'think'
at the same time!? If a casino has been flooded by the river, does
that make it an unlucky casino? If it is an unlucky casino, is it easier to win there after it reopens??

gamblingghost said:

Well, this seems to be a daunting task! Can a person, 'unthink' and 'think'
at the same time!? If a casino has been flooded by the river, does
that make it an unlucky casino? If it is an unlucky casino, is it easier to win there after it reopens??

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You must learn to unlearn. - Yoda

Meditate on this you must.

Hey, mgmt stupid enough to build a casino on a river, might just be stupid enough to hire a stupid crew, who hires stupid dealers, or set in policies that retain bad dealers. Opportunity! Eh they can also be stupid enough to put in bad BJ rules unfortunately.

Now, would I fly 1000 miles across the country because of this. No. If this flooded casino was equidistant from another one, and had the exact same conditions, then maybe I tend to favor going to the unlucky casino.

Its not the worst idea when a ploppy prefer to go on a hot slot machine, maybe there's something up with that machine, who knows.

When I'm getting "lucky" sometimes a superstitous ploppy wants to play on top of me (I don't allow because its too much hassle). But "lucky" ploppy, he would have reduced his EV from a typical -2% to about -0.5%.

Gamblor said:

You must learn to unlearn. - Yoda

Meditate on this you must.

Hey, mgmt stupid enough to build a casino on a river, might just be stupid enough to hire a stupid crew, who hires stupid dealers, or set in policies that retain bad dealers. Opportunity! Eh they can also be stupid enough to put in bad BJ rules unfortunately.Now, would I fly 1000 miles across the country because of this. No. If this flooded casino was equidistant from another one, and had the exact same conditions, then maybe I tend to favor going to the unlucky casino.

Its not the worst idea when a ploppy prefer to go on a hot slot machine, maybe there's something up with that machine, who knows.

When I'm getting "lucky" sometimes a superstitous ploppy wants to play on top of me (I don't allow because its too much hassle). But "lucky" ploppy, he would have reduced his EV from a typical -2% to about -0.5%.

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The state gives the casino precious little choice of where to build.

I'm thinking similiar to this. The mgmt might think , hey we gotta get our
customers back after this stinking mess. Let's give em some wonderful comps and etc. So, the casino was unlucky to get flooded, and yes this
might very well make it easier to get a sweet edge after this.

gamblingghost said:

The state gives the casino precious little choice of where to build.

I'm thinking similiar to this. The mgmt might think , hey we gotta get our
customers back after this stinking mess. Let's give em some wonderful comps and etc. So, the casino was unlucky to get flooded, and yes this
might very well make it easier to get a sweet edge after this.

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Crisis is opportunity. Yes give me a chaotically run casino over a well oiled machine, definitely some positive EV in that.

In life in general, bad luck follows bad luck, good luck follows good.

Gamblor said:

Yeah, we better watch out for these crazy mystical people such as Dr. Wolf, Niels Bohr, and Wolfgang Pauli and their youtube video understanding of QM!

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Do you mean to tell me that the youtube presentations on quantum mechanics do not qualify me to apply those principles to my current blackjack strategy? I figured it would be kewl to play a game whose outcome was already known. Then I can apply my QM betting scheme: bet more on winning hands and less on losing hands. It's a sure thing! :joker:

aslan said:

Then I can apply my QM betting scheme: bet more on winning hands and less on losing hands. It's a sure thing! :joker:

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Nice try. You would need to entangle your chips with the shoe for a positive correlation of your betsize and count.
Then you would bet a quantum amount of your chippool - always the same unseen "grab". The dealer pays you (and that is the tricky part) with the same quantum amount (without knowing how much it is).

Neither you nor the dealer nor the pit boss will know how much you had bet or won. Only when you do the single measurement at the cage, you will see whether you won or lost your session. Great cover !