luck

[Katweezel]

Yogi knew something!

I think it's fuzzy logic in that it deals with an unclear value within a range.

What the pool shot is all about is recalling a feeling, a memory of what making that particular shot felt like, and then reproducing it. It's not intuitive. It comes from thousands of experiences stored in your head and muscle memory, and then recalled as needed.

You need to define what it is you are talking about better or we will not be able to discuss it. Is it intuition? Is it a sixth sense? Is it what gamblers say, "I just had a feeling?" Is it like when you see a number a few times in a row and feel you ought ot play that number with your neighborhood bookie? Fess up, Fr0gLegs, what is IT?

Yogi Berra shed some light on this: "How can you think and hit at the same time?"

 

[aslan]

Yogi Berra shed some light on this: "How can you think and hit at the same time?"

Easy, hit is the first three letters of think. Think about it, or hit, that is. as:dog:lan

 

[sagefr0g]

What’s Luck Got to Do with
It?
Using Quantum Mechanics to Alter the
Crapshoot of Life
By Fred Alan Wolf, Ph.D.
Ever wonder how lucky or unlucky you are? Or do you think that whatever success or failure you’ve had had nothing to do with luck at all?
Well, if the quantum world has anything to do with it, not a single moment has passed without Lady Luck looking over your shoulder as
you attempt to draw to that inside straight called the game of life. But if we live in a quantum world, there is a way to beat Lady Luck at
her game. All you need to do is look vigilantly and carefully at the world—and take action with that same care and vigilance......
http://www.fredalanwolf.com/myarticles/NWT article.pdf

 

[Katweezel]

Relegation

What’s Luck Got to Do with
It?
Using Quantum Mechanics to Alter the
Crapshoot of Life
By Fred Alan Wolf, Ph.D.
Ever wonder how lucky or unlucky you are? Or do you think that whatever success or failure you’ve had had nothing to do with luck at all?
Well, if the quantum world has anything to do with it, not a single moment has passed without Lady Luck looking over your shoulder as
you attempt to draw to that inside straight called the game of life. But if we live in a quantum world, there is a way to beat Lady Luck at
her game. All you need to do is look vigilantly and carefully at the world—and take action with that same care and vigilance......
http://www.fredalanwolf.com/myarticles/NWT article.pdf

What's this Sagefried, You have relegated the scientist, physicist Wolf, down into Voodoo? Now, as the saying goes, 'What would Jesus do?', the question needs to be asked: "What would Fred Wolf say and do about this relegation?":whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

What's this Sagefried, You have relegated the scientist, physicist Wolf, down into Voodoo? Now, as the saying goes, 'What would Jesus do?', the question needs to be asked: "What would Fred Wolf say and do about this relegation?":whip:

yeah well, i dunno. this part kind of bothers me:

"Intent refers to the action of vigilant observation along a specific path. It matters little what you hope for or even what you passively
expect will happen. You need to actively pursue your vision in order to manifest your intent in the physical world, not passively dream
about it or simply hope it will come true."

it's to me like setting a goal. yeah ok, maybe it will happen, but what's it gonna cost?:whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

eighty foot shot

Quote:
Originally Posted by ccibball50 View Post
Let me give you an example. Take basketball for example.

1. A kid who has never touched a basketball picks it up and throws it from one end of the court through the hoop at the other end of the court.

2. A kid who has been playing all his life does the same thing as kid one

Both shots were lucky, but who had the better chance of making it?

You can't just say a shot is lucky. If you mean it, both would have an equal chance.

But if skill has anything to do with it, then it is partly lucky and partly due to skill; therefore, the more skillful person will do it more often, but only because he is more skillful. It may be 10% skill and 90% luck, but it is still partly skillful.

the kid in the blue by the steps lobs the ball....... drops an eighty footer.
luck or skill?
(Dead link: http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=11976441&ch=4226726&src=news)

 

[aslan]

the kid in the blue by the steps lobs the ball....... drops an eighty footer.
luck or skill?
(Dead link: http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=11976441&ch=4226726&src=news)

I'm impressed if you think I can answer that question. He could have natural ability. He might have practiced beforehand. He may be totally uncoordinated and therefore need extreme luck to do it. He may have a job or other activity (such as member of the school basketball team) that gives him skill in this event. He may be just your everyday guy who has no special skill or related skill, and he just got lucky, but even then, there is probably a skill aspect--good eye hand coordination, sufficient strength, good eyesight, a confident personality, etc.

 

[RingyDingy]

Well i have Neither luck nor skills? where does that leave me? :grin:

 

[aslan]

Well i have Neither luck nor skills? where does that leave me? :grin:

SOL, RingyDingy!

 

[RingyDingy]

SOL, RingyDingy!

I'm thinking new acronym:

"SOLAS" = S#*t Out of Luck And Skills

 

[Katweezel]

Skilful luck

I'm thinking new acronym:

"SOLAS" = S#*t Out of Luck And Skills

Hey RingyDingy, You ever been hit by a bus? No? There then, I just proved how lucky you've been.

As for skills. Anyone can learn them, can't they... :cat:

 

[RingyDingy]

LOL you have no idea how funny that is, because yes, i have been hit by a bus, lol :laugh:

well not quite true, i was 13, and i rode into the back of a bus........

I guess i have some luck because i am still alive still that doesnt help me with no skill though does it?

 

[RingyDingy]

actually, i just had a brainwave! so i do have some skills.

I'm going to sell to everyone here on the forums special "cover play" T-Shirts.

Ill start with my personal favorite, (see attachment)

cheers

Ringy

 

[aslan]

I'm thinking new acronym:

"SOLAS" = S#*t Out of Luck And Skills

Sounds kind of cutting edge. Here's one--SOYNI. Careful, their might be a copyright infringement with SONY. Anyway, it means s(#t out of your name it. Or how about, SOO, meaning s%(t out of, kind of an acronym abbreviation. Don't like it, so soo me. SOOW or SOW, meaning s%*t out of whatever. Or the old standby in case of emergency, SOS, s%(t out of stuff. George Carlin would like this one. Ever hear his monologue on "stuff?" One last one, MT?O,S! which means My turn? Oh, s$&t!

 

[sagefr0g]

here's another lucky shot

this ones a 90 footer, lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHy7Ijie27o&eurl=http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Video-Ohio-high-schooler-sinks-90-foot-shot-ch?urn=nba,147300&feature=player_embedded

 

[sagefr0g]

a blast from the past

Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
edit: and i think your missing part of his point, the very point that i find so difficult to articulate. the point being how a more vague perception can under certain circumstances have a better chance of catching the validity of a matter than a precise perception that is not over stepping it's bounds of precision but is simply living with in certain limits of accuracy by it's very nature.

I was more than vaguely aware of that under certain circumstances never less that vaguely defined. Wishing a more precise perception of those circumstances I decided to shelve the whole idea until relevant data could be brought to bear on what was otherwise in my opinion a vacuous speculation.

just some stuff i was reading for what it's worth, street smarts sort of stuff i keep believing in... rang a bell with this post, lol.

from: http://www.webcitation.org/5QyE4rhbN

".... However, a growing number of behavioral scientists in a variety of disciplines now embrace a similar perspective, often called bounded rationality. Here, bounded refers to inherent limits on rational thought, depending on the organism and its environment. Decision strategies that hinge on mere bits of well-chosen information about one's surroundings pack a surprisingly powerful wallop, especially when time and knowledge are in short supply, according to the bounded-rationality view.

In fact, new evidence suggests that for choosing one's actions in many real-world contexts, these bare-bones tactics work at least as well as complex statistical formulas that consider voluminous data. Studies also suggest that simple strategies wring insight out of shifting environments with much greater ease than fancy probability equations do.....
............. Gigerenzer's group focuses on what it calls "fast and frugal" formulas for decision making. These guidelines not only work with limited knowledge about the task and environment at hand but actually benefit from partial ignorance........."

 

[Abenzio]

A proverbial saying about luck

Hey Froggie, thanks for this fun thread, which must be kept alive--- Here is
a proverbial saying about Luck: It gotta run out eventually. How true it is, especially for OJ, Madoff and Rothstein.

OJ

:cry:

Madoff's the convicted & jailed Ponzi-Schemer

:cry:

Rothstein's charged by the Fed as another Ponzi-Schemer

:cry:

 

[sagefr0g]

Hey Froggie, thanks for this fun thread, which must be kept alive--- Here is
a proverbial saying about Luck: It gotta run out eventually. How true it is, especially for OJ, Madoff and Rothstein.

..

yeah, just me maybe but keeping tabs on luck is a cool thing.

far as AP stuff goes, i think maybe the idea is, well short term anything can happen sort of thing but if there is an edge or bias for some process along with consistency over time then that edge or bias will make it's self known while the two sided nature of luck will sort of cancel out.

what's interesting to me and it's probably just a figment of my own ignorance of the issue, but anyway it's interesting how as AP's we deal with probability and that element of uncertainty that exists in the short term. i dunno it's like we have this known stuff, some expectation but it's unknown what's really gonna happen in the short term, but we can know some range of results and the degree of likelihood of that range of results presenting in the short term, sort of thing.
so i guess we kind of know something about the unknown in the short term, lmao.

confirmation bias i guess it's called is a tricky, funny thing, that said it's been an interesting experience for me for what appears so often, say your trying some AP move and well maybe you got it right, and maybe not but how pleasing it is that luck or skill the result comes out what you was hoping for.:cat:

 

[aslan]

Black swans hide in plain sight.

yeah, just me maybe but keeping tabs on luck is a cool thing.

far as AP stuff goes, i think maybe the idea is, well short term anything can happen sort of thing but if there is an edge or bias for some process along with consistency over time then that edge or bias will make it's self known while the two sided nature of luck will sort of cancel out.

what's interesting to me and it's probably just a figment of my own ignorance of the issue, but anyway it's interesting how as AP's we deal with probability and that element of uncertainty that exists in the short term. i dunno it's like we have this known stuff, some expectation but it's unknown what's really gonna happen in the short term, but we can know some range of results and the degree of likelihood of that range of results presenting in the short term, sort of thing.
so i guess we kind of know something about the unknown in the short term, lmao.

confirmation bias i guess it's called is a tricky, funny thing, that said it's been an interesting experience for me for what appears so often, say your trying some AP move and well maybe you got it right, and maybe not but how pleasing it is that luck or skill the result comes out what you was hoping for.:cat:

Interesting, too, that there is no certainty even in the long run. Yes, simulations of billions of trials show convincingly that things will work out in the long run; however, every human being's long run is hostage to his actual lifetime. Every so often, and don't ask me how often, someone will have no chance of reaching the long run, at least, not in their lifetime, which in practical terms might just as well be eternity. lol But take heart. By the same token, some people should be able to reach the long run day in and day out, I mean to say, never experiencing even one more run of short term negative variance for the rest of their lives. There are an infinite number of black swans, but unfortunately, our lives are too short to find many or any of them because of how far apart they are typically dispersed. lol Luck is after all simply luck! And nothing has to even out in any one person's lifetime. Another cliche, yet true--> Life is not fair. :sad:

The secret to luck is to always have your heart set on what you are about to get. In that way they can never be disappointed, and must always achieve your dreams and goals. Maybe that is why the saints' prayer is, "Not my will, but Thy will be done." With an attitude like that, you can't lose----ever! The secret to happiness? lol You be the judge. I suspect if you have even the slightest taste for a little bit of gold you will not embrace this secret path to happiness. Fact is, you may flee it with all your might. lol Maybe if you're lucky you will return to find what you have always been looking for all your life and which was right under your nose all the time.

 

[sevenfour47]

betting amounts

If I played a 1 to 25 limit table would that be a high enough limit to make a few dollars counting cards efficiently and also if i played 2 hands at those limits would that increase my potential profits? how does playing 2 hands affect the odds and such? how much could my potential profit be per hour>?