sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
there you go. i keep overlooking the idea of the likelyhood of being at some range of amount of money aspect of standard deviation and always just focus on the amount of money aspect of it. thanks for clarifying that.Kasi said:
part of how i was feeling is that feeling of dis-belief that one gets when you keep seeing the dealer win time after time virtualy regardless of how good a hand you might have. even when you know intellectually that that is just what is supposed to happen. and then when i was getting slam-dunked on so many of my big bets at dream TC's there was all these paranoid like thoughts going through my mind, like maybe counting doesn't work, maybe this whole AP thing is just a conspiracy of the casino's, or counting works but not for me cause of all the bad things i've ever done in my life. i even started to believe i may have been right when i wrote the little spoof about Norm's software code for CVBJ lol if you ever read that.Kasi said:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=67752&postcount=1
just what ever dismal idea popped into my head seemed to be reinforced by the way things were going down. then it's like you get this temptation feeling to steam or depart from the game plan in some way. lol all that and playing the game for not really money!
but the WISEFROG spreadsheet helped me to at least see that ok this is where i'm at on the reality scale of what can happen. and yeah maybe i'm getting pretty far out on the fringe and also knowing the ROR for this exploit is so high and that the hands to play were pretyy limited i could at least rationally think about those real apsects as opposed to the 'cursed' feelings that had no basis as far as rational thought.
conversly when i had the pretty good turn around and the bankroll started rebuilding i had opposite thougts and feelings lol. like hey now i could see how the good counts are working out as they 'should' for me. i'm thinking this standard deviation thing is flipping for me.
then i start fearing and thinking but this can all turn on a dime and i fall right back down the tubes again. lol. but again looking at WISEFROG i could see i'm again not really out of the realm that the math says can happen to me sort of thing. and i guess i understand that playing the contest as i am that the simm was set for optimal bankroll growth and i think that means pretty much like full kelly and i know that's supposed to be a real thrill rollercoaster ride.
lol, well i was joking about the knuckles but i did slam the desk a few time. think i better hide the golf clubs. lolKasi said:Don't break your knuckles - I prefer my friend's method who always keeps a pitching wedge nearby and just destroys furniture with it until the police come. But that was a real $11,000 that he managed to lose, he had won it on the internet over a few weeks, in 3 hours while watching the Super Bowl lol. At least it was their money
