Hilton's 2 deckers

Thunder said:

I'll take a DD game with only 50% penetration over a 6 deck game with 80% penetration. You're going to still see more + counts than you would with the 6 deck game in a given hour. If they have NMSE which is virtually guaranteed, you can just sit out a hand or two.

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Absolutely not. DD at 50% is unplayable. You may see more counts, but they will rarely last more than a hand unless it's heads-up.

Ok maybe I'm missing something but, which game do you think you're going to have more hands with a positive count in one hour, the DD game with 50% penetration or the 6 deck game with 80% penetration? Given that the house edge is also lower by about 1/2 compared to the 6 deck game (assuming it's AC rules and two decks), why am I crazy?

According to CV

The frequency of each TC will be about the same for those two games. The main difference in advantage will be the OTT house edge. If the difference is enough to give the player an advantage at a lower TC then the DD game will be better. If the advantages at each TC are roughly the same then it won't matter much. At that point, things like table limits, crowd conditions, dealer/player speed, shuffle time, Wongability and heat become the deciding factor.

-Sonny-

Thank you Sonny. Let me ask you though. Knowing that you're more likely to see higher counts when there are less cards in the shoe, why would the frequency of each TC be the same? Or in other words, if I see 50 hands in a 2 deck game and 50 hands in a 6 deck game, the 50 hands in the 2 deck game would require a lower running count on average vs. the 50 hands in the 6 deck game, to be converted into a + TC. I would say you're more likely to see a running count of +2 than a running count of +6 right?

Thunder said:

Ok maybe I'm missing something but, which game do you think you're going to have more hands with a positive count in one hour, the DD game with 50% penetration or the 6 deck game with 80% penetration? Given that the house edge is also lower by about 1/2 compared to the 6 deck game (assuming it's AC rules and two decks), why am I crazy?

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Neither the house edge or the number of rounds you see at a positive count are important in this case.

Two things: in any BJ game, you are always playing one hand at -EV, and that's the first hand. If you are only playing 2 or 3 rounds per shuffle that's a significant amount of -EV to eat.

The other thing is a cut card effect. High cards being dealt out consume fewer cards than low cards. Let's say a DD game with bad pen is varying between 2 and 3 rounds per shuffle. When you have one of those first rounds where everybody gets a natural or cold turkey, expect to play 3 rounds, and the second two at a horrible disadvantage. And on the other side when your first or second rounds includes a lot of long draws, a zoo of splits of 3's and 6's, you're not going to get to play that third round at the huge count. In the shoe world the cut card effect isn't really significant but in the pitch world it's a killer.

NOT so FAST, buckaroos !

Thunder you are BOTH right and wrong.

If that shoe with 80% pen' has a full table and I can play the DD with 50% pen' Heads-Up I will buy in at the DD.

Of course this assumes little or no HEAT at DD, and that is a fantasy.

creeping panther said:

No matter... posters should not be using the term "Crazy" when referring to you, it is showing unnecessary disrespect.

CP

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I believe the best way to learn and discover new things is to challenge conventional thinking. Put it this way. We were all told at one point or another we can't beat BJ, we can't count cards, you have to be a rocket scientist to beat the casino in BJ, etc etc etc. Yet we broke through that prevalent line of thinking to achieve new things. How many people thought AP slots was a dream and thought anyone who claimed it could be beaten was crazy. Yet, Machinist proved conventional thinking wrong. Not saying I'm making any breakthrough here but I've already proved enough naysayers wrong in many things to know that sometimes it is good for the mind and sanity to stretch one's thoughts.

Thunder said:

Knowing that you're more likely to see higher counts when there are less cards in the shoe, why would the frequency of each TC be the same?

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Because the 6D game has more of each rank, which makes it easier to get more skewed ratios of low:high cards. Let's say you have a 1D segment of a 2D pack. What is the highest TC you could possibly see? Now take a 2D segment from a 6D pack. What's the highest count you could get in that situation? As an extreme situation, think about a 1D segment from a 1D game. It's not about the number of cards, it's about the percentage of cards that are dealt. The deeper penetration will give you a higher frequency of positive counts and the opportunity to see higher TCs.

-Sonny-

Automatic Monkey said:

Neither the house edge or the number of rounds you see at a positive count are important in this case.

Two things: in any BJ game, you are always playing one hand at -EV, and that's the first hand. If you are only playing 2 or 3 rounds per shuffle that's a significant amount of -EV to eat.

The other thing is a cut card effect. High cards being dealt out consume fewer cards than low cards. Let's say a DD game with bad pen is varying between 2 and 3 rounds per shuffle. When you have one of those first rounds where everybody gets a natural or cold turkey, expect to play 3 rounds, and the second two at a horrible disadvantage. And on the other side when your first or second rounds includes a lot of long draws, a zoo of splits of 3's and 6's, you're not going to get to play that third round at the huge count. In the shoe world the cut card effect isn't really significant but in the pitch world it's a killer.

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So basically you're saying that the variance will be much higher. I understand that. I guess because I have never played a 2 deck game at the casino befoe, I'll have to experience it myself to gain a better understanding.

FLASH1296 said:

Thunder you are BOTH right and wrong.

If that shoe with 80% pen' has a full table and I can play the DD with 50% pen' Heads-Up I will buy in at the DD.

Of course this assumes little or no HEAT at DD, and that is a fantasy.

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Given that it's going to be AC and the game will likely be burnt soon, I'm not too concerned with the heat. I also prefer DD because it won't take as long to see a good count thereby making the game more fun.

Sonny said:

Because the 6D game has more of each rank, which makes it easier to get more skewed ratios of low:high cards. Let's say you have a 1D segment of a 2D pack. What is the highest TC you could possibly see? Now take a 2D segment from a 6D pack. What's the highest count you could get in that situation? As an extreme situation, think about a 1D segment from a 1D game. It's not about the number of cards, it's about the percentage of cards that are dealt. The deeper penetration will give you a higher frequency of positive counts and the opportunity to see higher TCs.

-Sonny-

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Thanks Sonny.

Thunder said:

So basically you're saying that the variance will be much higher. I understand that. I guess because I have never played a 2 deck game at the casino befoe, I'll have to experience it myself to gain a better understanding.

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Cut card effect isn't variance, it's like a built-in preferential shuffle that cuts out that extra round, only in good counts. And to be "fair," it gives it back to you in bad counts. :laugh:

We see the same thing in shoe games, we just don't notice it. Getting 15 rounds in good counts and 16 rounds in bad counts isn't such a big deal, but getting 2 rounds in good counts and 3 rounds in bad counts is terrible.

What I meant by variance when I was referring to the cut card effect is that while the count may be very high 80% through the shoe. That same count 90% through the shoe is more likely to give you positive results since there is less variance in the outcome.

Thunder said:

What I meant by variance when I was referring to the cut card effect is that while the count may be very high 80% through the shoe. That same count 90% through the shoe is more likely to give you positive results since there is less variance in the outcome.

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Not that either. The extra hand just means an extra hand playable at a profit.

As mentioned by others, there are situations where the DD game might be better, but you can be sure that if it has an AC-size crowd and it's DD with 50% pen, it won't be playable at all.

What's the SCORE for Hilton's 2deckers?

What's the SCORE for Hilton's 2deckers?

Hilton offers the 2deckers today. Please someone compute the score. Here are the relevant info:

1) $25 minimum
2) 2 deckers are shuffled by 2 decker machine. (Thanks goodness, it's not a continuous shuffler!)
3) 50% pen [Updating: 25 cards cut off from the back of the 2deckers (75%pen)]
4) nms. 3:2 bj pitch game
5) no hole card. Dealer will take only players' original bets if a dealer gets bj.
6) resplittings are allowed all the way up to 3 hands except for aces
7) aces are allowed to split once only up to 2 hands
8) all dealers must hit all soft 17s (that's the only down side of this game, I think :grin
9) all doubling downs are allowed just like the regular Hilton bj rules
10 Just think of this: 2 deckers are played just like a regular 6:5 bj, except Hilton offers much better rules

Abenzio said:

What's the SCORE for Hilton's 2deckers?

Hilton offers the 2deckers today. Please someone compute the score. Here are the relevant info:

1) $25 minimum
2) 2 deckers are shuffled by 2 decker machine. (Thanks goodness, it's not a continuous shuffler!)
3) 50% pen
4) nms. 3:2 bj pitch game
5) no hole card. Dealer will take only players' original bets if a dealer gets bj.
6) resplittings are allowed all the way up to 3 hands except for aces
7) aces are allowed to split once only up to 2 hands
8) all dealers must hit all soft 17s (that's the only down side of this game, I think :grin
9) all doubling downs are allowed just like the regular Hilton bj rules
10 Just think of this: 2 deckers are played just like a regular 6:5 bj, except Hilton offers much better rules

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Without running a sim I'll guess that the SCORE is not very good, probably 20's using HO2 w/asc.

Is the game OBO or OBBO?
Lose original bets and busted bets on dealer BJ or Original bets only?

BJC

Abenzio;166581[QUOTE said:

]What's the SCORE for Hilton's 2deckers?

Hilton offers the 2deckers today. Please someone compute the score. Here are the relevant info:

1) $25 minimum
2) 2 deckers are shuffled by 2 decker machine. (Thanks goodness, it's not a continuous shuffler!)
3) 50% pen
4) nms. 3:2 bj pitch game
5) no hole card. Dealer will take only players' original bets if a dealer gets bj.
6) resplittings are allowed all the way up to 3 hands except for aces
7) aces are allowed to split once only up to 2 hands
8) all dealers must hit all soft 17s (that's the only down side of this game, I think :grin
9) all doubling downs are allowed just like the regular Hilton bj rules
10 Just think of this: 2 deckers are played just like a regular 6:5 bj, except Hilton offers much better rules

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Lets see, crappy pen, auto shuffle so no tracking, no hole card so no hole carding, h17 to lend to house edge, and should be massively crowded since its the only DD in town. Have at counters, there are much better games for me to be had in that town.

By the way how could there be no hole card? Flash's "source" said there would be.

50% pen = unplayable.

MAZ said:

Lets see, crappy pen, auto shuffle so no tracking, no hole card so no hole carding, h17 to lend to house edge, and should be massively crowded since its the only DD in town. Have at counters, there are much better games for me to be had in that town.

By the way how could there be no hole card? Flash's "source" said there would be.

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Maz, any rules can be changed. For example, 3 tables of 2deckers were reported, but now it's only 2 tables of 2deckers (1 currently is closed due to possible mechanical problems .. ) S17 and H17 were reported, but now it's H17 only, etc...

Bjcount: players will lose THE ORIGINAL BETS ONLY if a dealer gets a bj.

Guys, happy New Year. Be a better and nicer person in 2010 please. A better world starts with 1 good person at a time :grin:.

Updating...
1) The $25 2-decker-table has been closed for unknown reasons. It's changed to a 6 deck game. Perhaps it will be changed back to a 2 decker game later for whatever reasons the management has encountered .
2) A brand new $100 2-decker-table opens in the highroller pit.
The pen is 25 cards cut off from the back of the shoe. The pen will be subject to change, of course .
The spread is limited from $100 to $1,000 in that 2deckers. Hilton is AP-phobia! The 2decker game is watched like a hawk .

I am heading to Ac in a couple hours. probably won't check out the hilton til 7 or 8 am, when it might be a little slower. just wanted to know the rules, penetration and what ever else you may offer before hand.