What JC says about LUCK/2002 Article

I

InPlay

Banned
That word just keeps coming up over and over. LUCK ! You got to have it.


RWM: What would you say to the guy out there in Peoria who has studied the books, learned to count cards, and wants to become a professional blackjack player.

JC: I would not be very optimistic about it. You can make some money, but making it a profession is tough. Most of the professional blackjack players who are successful had initial success. They were lucky.

RWM: You mean they caught a good fluctuation when they first started?

JC: Yes. Then they got better and adapted. If you have enough good experience behind you, then you can withstand the bad stuff. There are a lot of attractive aspects to playing if you’re betting enough to get comped. Even if you don’t get comped blackjack is a cool thing to do. You set your own hours. You are your own boss. I think most people don’t analyze how much their game is worth. It’s hard because the parameters aren’t known until you check out your own specific situation. You might run simulations and find out you expect to earn $20 an hour. If you’re a student that might be attractive, but you have fluctuations. $20 an hour is probably $10 on a sure thing. Also, simulations give you the numbers if you don’t make any mistakes. People who are just starting are going to make mistakes. In The Color of Money, Paul Newman says, "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." That has to be true.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/interviewJC.htm
 
B

Bojack1

Well-Known Member
InPlay said:
That word just keeps coming up over and over. LUCK ! You got to have it.


RWM: What would you say to the guy out there in Peoria who has studied the books, learned to count cards, and wants to become a professional blackjack player.

JC: I would not be very optimistic about it. You can make some money, but making it a profession is tough. Most of the professional blackjack players who are successful had initial success. They were lucky.

RWM: You mean they caught a good fluctuation when they first started?

JC: Yes. Then they got better and adapted. If you have enough good experience behind you, then you can withstand the bad stuff. There are a lot of attractive aspects to playing if you’re betting enough to get comped. Even if you don’t get comped blackjack is a cool thing to do. You set your own hours. You are your own boss. I think most people don’t analyze how much their game is worth. It’s hard because the parameters aren’t known until you check out your own specific situation. You might run simulations and find out you expect to earn $20 an hour. If you’re a student that might be attractive, but you have fluctuations. $20 an hour is probably $10 on a sure thing. Also, simulations give you the numbers if you don’t make any mistakes. People who are just starting are going to make mistakes. In The Color of Money, Paul Newman says, "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." That has to be true.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/interviewJC.htm
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Nobody's ever said you don't need luck. Its just the simple fact that to last at this game you need skill as well. Just like John says in this quote here, "then they got better and adapted, if you have enough good experience behind you then you can withstand the bad stuff." As much as John Chang believes you need luck his skills are legendary, and that more than anything is what keeps him relevant to the blackjack world. So thank you for bringing up a quote from someone you apparently believe in that backs up my statement of, Luck makes for a good day, skill makes for a great life. If you don't take my word for it, maybe you'll take John's.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Bojack1 said:
Nobody's ever said you don't need luck. Its just the simple fact that to last at this game you need skill as well. Just like John says in this quote here, "then they got better and adapted, if you have enough good experience behind you then you can withstand the bad stuff." As much as John Chang believes you need luck his skills are legendary, and that more than anything is what keeps him relevant to the blackjack world. So thank you for bringing up a quote from someone you apparently believe in that backs up my statement of, Luck makes for a good day, skill makes for a great life. If you don't take my word for it, maybe you'll take John's.
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I can attest to what John says. Most players start off with limited bankroll, so if they hit some bad variance right off the bat, their careers may be ended before hardly getting a start. A big win or two near the beginning certainly won't hurt one's staying power, not to speak of, confidence.

I have had a lot of ups and downs so I suppose I've learned the hard way, but bankroll was never a primary consideration, otherwise, one of my first big losses might have ended my "career," for want of a better word.

I have been looking forward to enjoying wins as big as some of my losses. I figure variance cuts both ways. One problem with this is the human factor. Often our losses are magnified by our losing behavior, steaming, chasing, playing over-tired, etc. But I did have a refressher last week. After losing $700 in sixteen hours worth of sessions the day before, I hit a streak of good variance and won $1,500 in two short sessions in less than two hours. Great fun! But the fact is, I find counting in general to be a grind, and unless one is betting big money, with a correspondingly large bankroll, I wouldn't advise quitting their day job.
 
I

InPlay

Banned
Bojack1 said:
Nobody's ever said you don't need luck. Its just the simple fact that to last at this game you need skill as well. Just like John says in this quote here, "then they got better and adapted, if you have enough good experience behind you then you can withstand the bad stuff." As much as John Chang believes you need luck his skills are legendary, and that more than anything is what keeps him relevant to the blackjack world. So thank you for bringing up a quote from someone you apparently believe in that backs up my statement of, Luck makes for a good day, skill makes for a great life. If you don't take my word for it, maybe you'll take John's.
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How about "Without LUCK they will never be a great life." is that also true ? All I am saying is you need LUCK to make it. Withoput luck in the beginning some of these people would have been broke and long gone if it were not for LUCK.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
InPlay said:
All I am saying is you need LUCK to make it.
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I can’t help but laugh at that. Just last month I played a game with a N0 of 850 hands. Even a part-time player could overcome 2 standard deviations within a few weeks. That’s a 95% chance of achieving your long run results every single month. And you’re trying to tell me that I need luck or else I’m toast? :laugh: I’ve reached the long run several times this year and I’ll do it a few more times before the end.

But JC’s words are true for most gamblers who play games with bad rules and weak strategies. If someone just takes a few hundred dollars and plays whatever game is offered at their local casino and uses the bet spreads from a book they read, they’re probably not going to have a reasonable chance of reaching their EV in this lifetime. I’ll have to agree with you on that point. But I don’t want to assume that everyone on this website aspires to be a weak player. For those who want to play properly, the money is there for the taking and it doesn’t have to take that long to get it. Like I said, sometimes the “long run” is only a month or two.

When you play a strong game the luck can fade away pretty fast. When you play a weak game, JC’s advice is painfully true.

InPlay said:
Withoput luck in the beginning some of these people would have been broke and long gone if it were not for LUCK.
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But that’s their own fault. If they were more intelligent they would have adjusted their unit size to have a reasonable risk or ruin. If they were more skillful then the risk would be much smaller and they wouldn’t have gone broke. Skill and intelligence eliminate the need for luck.

-Sonny-
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
Bojack1 said:
Nobody's ever said you don't need luck.
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Why does InPlay act like someone has said that, then?

Sonny said:
If they were more intelligent they would have adjusted their unit size to have a reasonable risk or ruin. If they were more skillful then the risk would be much smaller and they wouldn’t have gone broke.
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While I agree with your general sentiment, I'd like to point out that it is not always irrational to play with huge ROR or to go broke.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
The harder you work,the luckier you get.
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Indeed. Even Thomas Jefferson agrees with you:

"I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." -TJ

-Sonny-
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
Indeed. Even Thomas Jefferson agrees with you:

"I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." -TJ

-Sonny-
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I totally agree with you. But the beginner will often not wait until they have sufficient bankroll to test their skills--they jump in throwing caution (and proper RoR) to the winds. They also enter the arena before their skills, both counting and human (psychological) skills, have been sufficiently developed. Life is a learning process. If I ever write a book about BJ, I will insist that new players wait and then wait some more before they risk any serious money at the tables. Playing on the hope that you will be one of the lucky ones is a sure sign that you are not ready to begin in earnest, save maybe at the $3 and $5 tables, and even then with extreme caution. I've experienced some mighty daunting spirals even on the $5 table, and if you get to steaming, it's easy to turn the $5 table into a $25 table, the only difference being that you have a smaller table limit. lol But again, I agree with every word you said, Sonny--you're always right on target.
 
I

InPlay

Banned
Sonny said:
But that’s their own fault. If they were more intelligent they would have adjusted their unit size to have a reasonable risk or ruin. If they were more skillful then the risk would be much smaller and they wouldn’t have gone broke. Skill and intelligence eliminate the need for luck.

-Sonny-
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What if they would have done all that and still went broke ? It was luck that kept them in the game.


"Without LUCK they will never be a great life."
 
I

InPlay

Banned
callipygian said:
Why does InPlay act like someone has said that, then?
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I don't know where you are going with this. My assumption is most people think they can read a few books and the money will start rolling in. Well it is not so easy. Most people bust out before the even get to first base. Remember without luck their is no great life.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
InPlay said:
What if they would have done all that and still went broke?
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If they unexpectedly went broke then they did it wrong. Otherwise they were expecting to go broke so it's not a surprise. If you play an appropriately strong game, bankruptcy is not an issue and variance is just a dip in the road. The only time you get hit with something unexpected is when you haven't planned for it. If you plan for it, even if it doesn't ever happen you will be ready for it and it will not affect you too much.

-Sonny-
 
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Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
InPlay said:
My assumption is most people think they can read a few books and the money will start rolling in.
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Yeah, I've heard that some people play for years without ever running a sim. :)

InPlay said:
Remember without luck their is no great life.
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Luck is for people who aren't properly prepared.

-Sonny-
 
B

Bojack1

Well-Known Member
InPlay said:
What if they would have done all that and still went broke ? It was luck that kept them in the game.


"Without LUCK they will never be a great life."
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Failure is part of the game as well. If your good its inevitable it will be less, if you're just lucky it is inevitable it will be more. A mixture of both can give you a good headstart, but luck does not have to be part of the equation. If you do everything right and still go broke thats okay. Doing everything right means you understand risk and comprehend consequences of real play. Starting over is part of life and is not something you should be afraid of. If fear of failure or dependency on luck is part of your plan then there is no chance of succeeding at anything let alone blackjack.

I disagree with your quote as well. Luck is a perception not a force that can enhance your life. Many consider themselves lucky for what they have and have achieved. Just as many may consider themselves unlucky for the exact same things. You may love your life, as well as I may be miserable if I had to live in your shoes and vice versa. I may think your unlucky and think myself to be lucky, who's right? Its all perception. Its the substance of life that you create yourself that will give you the feelings of a great life. So if I look at you and dislike your so called standing in life and feel you must be one unlucky bastard, and you look at me and feel the same, yet we are both quite happy, does luck even exist or is it just a perception created by our own limitations.
 
I

InPlay

Banned
Bojack1 said:
I disagree with your quote as well. Luck is a perception not a force that can enhance your life. Many consider themselves lucky for what they have and have achieved. Just as many may consider themselves unlucky for the exact same things. You may love your life, as well as I may be miserable if I had to live in your shoes and vice versa. I may think your unlucky and think myself to be lucky, who's right? Its all perception. Its the substance of life that you create yourself that will give you the feelings of a great life. So if I look at you and dislike your so called standing in life and feel you must be one unlucky bastard, and you look at me and feel the same, yet we are both quite happy, does luck even exist or is it just a perception created by our own limitations.
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I agree Luck is a perception. Your perception is your only reality. Reality cannot exist until someone gives meaning. However a person may perceive a situation to be becomes the truth for them. Someone else will likely perceive it differently. Their reality will be their own. We all have a choice of how we can perceive life.

I guess when I am playing and have a high count and get a hard 15 and everybody else has 20 and looking at a 10 for the dealer you would call it variance. I would called it bad luck. I guess whatever you call it is the same thing but in a different language.
 
nottooshabby

nottooshabby

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
Indeed. Even Thomas Jefferson agrees with you:

"I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." -TJ

-Sonny-
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shadroch and Sonny, how refreshing! :cool2: Two of my favorite quotes on the topic which have been guideposts for me . . .

"Luck is when preparation meets opportunity"
- Bobby Knight

and

"Chance favors the prepared mind"
- Louis Pasteur
 
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Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
InPlay said:
Sims are in my head from the books I read.
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Books are a good start, but there is infinitely more that they do not cover. Even Schlesinger’s enormous Chapter 10 only compares a few different bet spreads and strategies. Having the flexibility to look at every possible situation and strategy will show you little tricks that will give you a bigger advantage than using canned sims or generic bet spreads. You can definitely get a decent advantage, but if you limit yourself to what the books say you are missing out on a lot of opportunities. Like you said, you can't just read a few books and expect the money to roll in. I don’t recall any of Schlesinger’s strategies giving a N0 of 850 hands. That’s the kind of stuff you need to discover on your own. Nobody's going to give away their best secrets.

-Sonny-
 
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