What JC says about LUCK/2002 Article
- Thread starter InPlay
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aslan
Well-Known Member
Sonny isn't denying the existence of luck. What I heard him say was that in his planning his play--bankroll determination, RoR, acquired playing skill, rules/game selection, betting progression, etc.--he has effectively nullified any effect that luck might otherwise have, except for the one in a million shot that no one in their right mind plans for. Done properly, one can be as near to a sure winner as humanly possible--bad luck or good luck, doesn't matter. Running sims can tell you how you're doing in terms of your plan better than just eyeballing can. As a practical matter, if you plan and execute properly, you can't lose. 
Hope I didn't put any words in your mouth, Sonny.
PS--"As a practical matter" is key. There is no sure thing. You know what I mean. Like Shadroch says, if a brick falls on your head, all bets are off!
Hope I didn't put any words in your mouth, Sonny.
PS--"As a practical matter" is key. There is no sure thing. You know what I mean. Like Shadroch says, if a brick falls on your head, all bets are off!
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Someone explain N0. I hear it referred to often enough and even heard someone said you're not "legit" if you don't understand it, though I find that hard to understand when, from what I can remember, the concept (at least under that name) doesn't show up anywhere in Blackbelt or Bluebook II.
aslan
Well-Known Member
So naturally I googled it.shadroch said:
The Quotations Page attributes it to A. Sachs:
Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives.
Who the heck is A. Sachs?
Some googles attribute it to the character William Wallace in the movie Braveheart.
Anyway, it is a good quote.
aslan
Well-Known Member
N0SPX said:
The number of hands (sometimes expressed in hours of playing time) theoretically required to be played with a certain set of rules and strategy (count, spread etc.) before the player reaches his goal to be ahead by at least one standard deviation. It has been supported as a main measure of every situation's (rules & strategy) assessment mostly by Brett Harris. It is expressed as N0 = Var / EV^2.
http://www.dictionaryofgambling.com/gambling_terms/blackjack/n/index.htm#n0
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
i think N0 is where for some given game the number of played (according to some fixed strategy) hands it will take for your EV to equal one standard deviation for that many hands played.SPX said:
http://www.bjrnet.com/member/bjapr/N.htm
this standard deviation stuff is a lot of what (it seems to me) how AP's think of luck. to where they essentially relate their EV to skill and the ancillary but just as expected standard deviation as luck.
the fact that true counts present according to a normal distribution and that the results of advantage play fluctuate about ones expected value according to a normal distribution makes standard deviation a relatively perfectly normal occurance. that being the case treating standard deviation as luck is a bit differant than the kinds of luck found outside the casino walls such as in the stock market, meeting a hot babe by chance, finding a heads up penny on the side walk, ect. ie. those things that happen completely unexpectedly.
like for instance AP's are pretty much operating as mini casinos as far as how they make their money. i don't think casino operators look at their profits or their profit margins as being the result of luck. so in that sense an AP really doesn't either even if they think they do. although there was a case reported in the news of some casino whinning about having a streak of 'bad luck' recently. i guess ploppies are sometimes considered as being lucky. this doesn't scare casino operators much (maybe a whale might scare them occasionally cause they might be afraid the whale will win and not come back) but overall the casino operator knows that either the ploppy will come back and lose what he won or even more or if not that some other ploppy will lose that much and probably more. so even that kind of luck if it is luck is just a watered down variety of luck.
aslan
Well-Known Member
You reminded me of Archie Karas who won tens of millions from Binions, but Binion knew that eventually his luck would change and eventually it did. Binion got back everything he had lost and made a handsome profit besides. He sorta had Archie trapped, because all the money Archie had won he left in the safety deposit boxes at Binions so that he did not have to pay taxes on it. That kept him coming back to Binion's to play because the money in effect had not yet been delivered. I think if I were an IRS agent I would have charged him with a scam to avoid taxation, but then every agent may not be on the up and up either. Did I say that? Don't let that rumor get started. lolsagefr0g said:
zengrifter
Banned
No scam - he lost it. zgaslan said:
(Dead link: http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendID=359734187) _ARCHIE KARAS' MYSPACE PAGE_
Casinos don't make their money off the losers. They make their money off of short-paying the winners. Take BJ, as an example. Player is a 48-52 underdog,but wins only 1-1. In Roulette, the house keeps more than 10% when a player hits a "winning" number.
That is why they don't fear winners.
That is why they don't fear winners.