Guess Dealer Bottom Card

I have a question and would like to ask the blackjack Pro. What percent advantage if I can guess the dealer bottom card 6 out of 10 times??? I can guess the dealer bottom card has 7,8,9,10 or in other way 2,3,4,5,6. Also, I am sitting at first base I can guess my first card is either 7,8,9,10 or in other way 2,3,4,5,6. Most of the time I guess correctly. Is this give me a very high percent advantage agaist the house???? Thanks for your comments and informations.


StevenLou

There is no advantage to be had in guessing.

The only thing I would be able to guess is if the dealer has say.. a 7 up and the board comes out with a ton of small cards. Then you can PREDICT the dealer will probably have 16, 17 or 18 total.

stevenlou said:

I have a question and would like to ask the blackjack Pro. What percent advantage if I can guess the dealer bottom card 6 out of 10 times??? I can guess the dealer bottom card has 7,8,9,10 or in other way 2,3,4,5,6. Also, I am sitting at first base I can guess my first card is either 7,8,9,10 or in other way 2,3,4,5,6. Most of the time I guess correctly. Is this give me a very high percent advantage agaist the house???? Thanks for your comments and informations.


StevenLou

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If you can guess the dealer's hole card 6 out of 10 times you would have a big advantage. The only thing is, how will you be able to continue guessing correctly 60% of the time?

I can guess the dealer's hole card also

One out of every 13 hands on the average, I can guess the dealer's hole card with 100% accuracy.

ihate17

ihate17 said:

One out of every 13 hands on the average, I can guess the dealer's hole card with 100% accuracy.

ihate17

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That sucks,since it can only have one of ten values.Sounds like you need to devote more time to your guessing.

Actually, Ihate17 is saying he can guess the actual card 1 out of 13 times with 100% accuracy, not just a 10 value card. It isn't really doesn't effect his playing strategy, it's just that much damn cooler.

Josh

ihate17 said:

One out of every 13 hands on the average, I can guess the dealer's hole card with 100% accuracy.

ihate17

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my record is 4 out of 13 on average.

How you define things

Mimosine said:

my record is 4 out of 13 on average.

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Since I define calling a ten a ten and not a J,Q, or K, it is one of thirteen, not that it really makes a difference. Anyway, I am working on predicting 5's.

How is this: A cheating dealer who peeks at his first card as he pulls it out of the shoe. If the card is an 10 card or Ace, he turns it over, if it is not he turns the second card. Here I can predict ace or 10 value card on 10 of 13 hands. Must be a real brain.

ihate17

ihate17 said:

How is this: A cheating dealer who peeks at his first card as he pulls it out of the shoe. If the card is an 10 card or Ace, he turns it over, if it is not he turns the second card. Here I can predict ace or 10 value card on 10 of 13 hands. Must be a real brain.

ihate17

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The cheating dealer is exploitable to a point. If he's flipping over his second card and shows a 10 chances are he's got a small one in the hole. Just a theory.

Last week, I went to casino and guessed the dealer bottom card on 6 decks shoe. Most of the time I guessed rite. I can not guess what the dealer bottom card has exactly but I can guess the dealer has either 7,8,9, 10, jack,queen, king or ace and versal 2,3,4,5, or 6. I will test my theory with real money play later. What increment chip that I need to bet?? or How to bet to get maximum advantage without hurting my bank roll? I plan to play 10 dollars table. Thanks for your reply.

stevenlou.

Assuming that you are playing in an American casino,using a normal shoe,there is no way to read a dealer to see what his bottom card is,so you can only guess.Now also assuming that you don't have some special inate ESP,any money you choose to use in an experiment will be money spent pretty foolishly.Sorry if that appears a bit harsh,but it is reality.In the long run,relieing on hunches and guesses will cost you a pretty penny.

stevenlou said:

if I can guess the dealer bottom card 6 out of 10 times??? I can guess the dealer bottom card has 7,8,9,10 or in other way 2,3,4,5,6. Also, I am sitting at first base I can guess my first card is either 7,8,9,10 or in other way 2,3,4,5,6.

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simple math??:whip: 7 to 10 equals 7 different value total, 2 to 6 equals 5 value total. 7 plus 5 equals 12. when you go with the 7 to 10 sides, that's 7/12=58.33%...On average, one should guess it right 6 out of 10 times

I think it was P.T. Barnum that said "There's a sucker born every minute."

I wonder if stevenlou plans on reproducing...

stevenlou said:

Last week, I went to casino and guessed the dealer bottom card on 6 decks shoe. Most of the time I guessed rite. I can not guess what the dealer bottom card has exactly but I can guess the dealer has either 7,8,9, 10, jack,queen, king or ace and versal 2,3,4,5, or 6. I will test my theory with real money play later. What increment chip that I need to bet?? or How to bet to get maximum advantage without hurting my bank roll? I plan to play 10 dollars table. Thanks for your reply.

stevenlou.

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I hate to say it, but you would be really stupid to use this for real money.

humonstick said:

simple math??:whip: 7 to 10 equals 7 different value total, 2 to 6 equals 5 value total. 7 plus 5 equals 12. when you go with the 7 to 10 sides, that's 7/12=58.33%...On average, one should guess it right 6 out of 10 times

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LOL

True

Preston said:

The cheating dealer is exploitable to a point. If he's flipping over his second card and shows a 10 chances are he's got a small one in the hole. Just a theory.

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As a matter of fact, no matter what card he turns when turning the second card, you know he has something other than 10-A under.
Some things that are very clear when the second card is turned over:
If he shows an Ace, he does not have blackjack.
If he shows a 10, he does not have 20
If he shows a 2, he does not have 12
If he shows a 6, he does not have soft 17 (can be important in a soft double vs 6 especially in a S-17 game)
If he shows a 7, he does not have 17 or soft 18 and so on an 8 means 17 is highest, 9 means 18 and so one, but he could have a total of 10 or 11 also.
If he shows a 3, it becomes a much more dangerous card because only a 9 gives him a stiff instead of 5 different cards.

ihate17

Guess

stevenlou said:

I have a question and would like to ask the blackjack Pro. What percent advantage if I can guess the dealer bottom card 6 out of 10 times??? I can guess the dealer bottom card has 7,8,9,10 or in other way 2,3,4,5,6. Also, I am sitting at first base I can guess my first card is either 7,8,9,10 or in other way 2,3,4,5,6. Most of the time I guess correctly. Is this give me a very high percent advantage agaist the house???? Thanks for your comments and informations.


StevenLou

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From what I understand this player isn't really guessing the exact value of the player's bottom card. It seems to me that this player is just guessing the group (7, 8, 9, 10 as one group with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, as the other group) that the dealer's bottom card will belong to and he is doing it 60% of the time.

So he is either guessing a card is coming from the high group or the low group and if the card is a two then it goes into the low group and if he guessed a low card then he proclaims himself to be correct.

Hell I could just guess the hi group all the time and be correct nearly 58% of the time.

This gives the player no advantage whatsoever, I would imagine.

weavin42 said:

Actually, Ihate17 is saying he can guess the actual card 1 out of 13 times with 100% accuracy, not just a 10 value card. It isn't really doesn't effect his playing strategy, it's just that much damn cooler.

Josh

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shad and weav.. clearly ihate17's joke when right over your heads *wooosh*

stevenlou said:

Last week, I went to casino and guessed the dealer bottom card on 6 decks shoe. Most of the time I guessed rite. I can not guess what the dealer bottom card has exactly but I can guess the dealer has either 7,8,9, 10, jack,queen, king or ace and versal 2,3,4,5, or 6. I will test my theory with real money play later. What increment chip that I need to bet?? or How to bet to get maximum advantage without hurting my bank roll? I plan to play 10 dollars table. Thanks for your reply.

stevenlou.

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i suggest u stay out of casinos, as u clearly are not very smart if u think flat out GUESSING on a 100 hands or so proves anything.. do it THOUSANDS of times and when your right 90% of the time on the EXACT value of the card, then u have esp (which i dont believe in).. btw, you have as much skill as som1 guessing heads or tails on a coin, so by getting it right 60% of the time, that means nothing, as 50% would be average.. are u serious tho? u guess 2-6 or 7-A, and are right 60% of the time, and think that means anything? STAY OUT OF THE CASINOS.. i cud just see this guy walking past a blackjack table and out of nowhere hes like, "maybe im psychic!", so he tries like 20 hands, gets 11/20 correct (remember hes only guessing big or small cards), and thinks, yup im psychic.. get real

ihate17 said:

As a matter of fact, no matter what card he turns when turning the second card, you know he has something other than 10-A under.
Some things that are very clear when the second card is turned over:
If he shows an Ace, he does not have blackjack.
If he shows a 10, he does not have 20
If he shows a 2, he does not have 12
If he shows a 6, he does not have soft 17 (can be important in a soft double vs 6 especially in a S-17 game)
If he shows a 7, he does not have 17 or soft 18 and so on an 8 means 17 is highest, 9 means 18 and so one, but he could have a total of 10 or 11 also.
If he shows a 3, it becomes a much more dangerous card because only a 9 gives him a stiff instead of 5 different cards.

ihate17

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im confused on this whole thing, because a dealer doesnt have a choice on which of his 2 cards he turns over, as his first card is always placed face down and his second card is always placed face up on top of the face down card.. can u explain this in more detail?