Real Pros II

Craps Master · May 19, 2007

Welcome to the Real Pros thread, part two. In this thread, I will be offering my opinion and advice as a professional advantage player on all subjects related to advantage play. There is a strict policy against bringing up evolution in this thread, so don't do it. If QFIT or zengrifter or anyone like that tries to chime in with an opinion, please remember that I'm the Real Pro and they are not. The advice contained in the original Real Pros thread -- the advice that I gave -- is worth thousands of dollars to professional and aspiring professional players so, if we work at keeping the salesmanship, useless theory, far-fetched conspiracy theories, and digressions about evolution to a minumum, then perhaps the advice in this thread will also be that valuable, and maybe worth even more.

I now open the floor to questions. What would you newbies and neophytes like to know?

sagefr0g · May 19, 2007

did i miss anything

regarding the information you offered worth thousands of dollars that was presented in the closed Pro thread allow me to paraphrase what i gleaned.

use critical thinking when considering the information offered in books by virtualy all of the popular authors. it's for the most part useless.
software is useless.
internet forums are useless. (makes me wonder why i should go on )
be creative, imaginative and vigilant for advantage situations.
if you are so limited in your skills that you can only use card counting then do it exactingly and seek out the fastest dealers at the table offering the best conditions and employ a spread of 1:30 while using a whale at another table as cover.
did i miss anything of value from the closed pro thread?

another question:
who the heck can afford to risk a 1:30 spread?

ScottH · May 19, 2007

sagefr0g said:
another question:
who the heck can afford to risk a 1:30 spread?

It actually costs you less to increase your spread since when you increase your spread you will be lowering your minimum bet, not raising your max bet.

jack.jackson · May 19, 2007

Craps Master said:
Welcome to the Real Pros thread, part two. In this thread, I will be offering my opinion and advice as a professional advantage player on all subjects related to advantage play. There is a strict policy against bringing up evolution in this thread, so don't do it. If QFIT or zengrifter or anyone like that tries to chime in with an opinion, please remember that I'm the Real Pro and they are not. The advice contained in the original Real Pros thread -- the advice that I gave -- is worth thousands of dollars to professional and aspiring professional players so, if we work at keeping the salesmanship, useless theory, far-fetched conspiracy theories, and digressions about evolution to a minumum, then perhaps the advice in this thread will also be that valuable, and maybe worth even more.

I now open the floor to questions. What would you newbies and neophytes like to know?

I play the A02, and my author claims that with 1:4 spread in a single deck game i can have an advantage of up to 2% with favorable conditions[not ideal] on a dead even game.

Q: Does this mean that if i play the 6:5 [-1.5] i'll still have +.5 advantage.
If not, how much should i raise my betting INDICES and/or spread to compensate for this catastrophic rule. If at all?

note: I make a 2 unit bet @ +2 and 4 unit bet @ +3 w/1D remaining.

I make a 2 unit bet @ 0 and 4 unit bet @ +1 w/1/2 D remaining

p.s. Do the casinos consider these games unbeatable, Therefore allowing you to play more aggresively with less heat. I also use ace play adjustments to imorove the play of my hands.

ZenFan · May 19, 2007

Craps Master said:
Welcome to the Real Pros thread, part two. In this thread, I will be offering my opinion and advice as a professional advantage player on all subjects related to advantage play. There is a strict policy against bringing up evolution in this thread, so don't do it. If QFIT or zengrifter or anyone like that tries to chime in with an opinion, please remember that I'm the Real Pro and they are not. The advice contained in the original Real Pros thread -- the advice that I gave -- is worth thousands of dollars to professional and aspiring professional players so, if we work at keeping the salesmanship, useless theory, far-fetched conspiracy theories, and digressions about evolution to a minumum, then perhaps the advice in this thread will also be that valuable, and maybe worth even more.

Well, it looks like there's a new sheriff in town! zf

ZenFan · May 19, 2007

Craps Master said:
....I'd really advocate card steering, as it is probably the easiest advantage over and above card counting to consistently find in casinos today. It's also something you can pull off on your own, without the need for a team, if you target the right games. It just takes hours and hours of practice, and it can also be applied to games other than blackjack.

I'm intrigued by this "card-steering" as you've previously described. Would you please give us a rundown of the basic concept and application, and perhaps an estimate of the likely available edge?
Much appreciated! zf

sagefr0g · May 19, 2007

ScottH said:
It actually costs you less to increase your spread since when you increase your spread you will be lowering your minimum bet, not raising your max bet.

correct me if i'm wrong Scott, you got a table minimum right. thats as low as you can go if your not wonging out or in right? most of us are lucky if we can find a table min of $5.00 . so if my unit is $10 say then yes i can bet below my unit by $5.00 but my max bet is going to be $300 for one hand with a 1:30 spread. with splits and doubles you could end up having around $1,200 dollars or more on the table in one round. again i say who has the bank to risk that. well i'm sure there are those who do but i know one guy who isn't about to throw that kind of money around so easily.
lets not even do the math on the $10, $25 min tables.

ZenFan · May 19, 2007

sagefr0g said:
correct me if i'm wrong Scott, you got a table minimum right. thats as low as you can go if your not wonging out or in right? most of us are lucky if we can find a table min of $5.00 . so if my unit is $10 say then yes i can bet below my unit by $5.00 but my max bet is going to be $300 for one hand with a 1:30 spread. with splits and doubles you could end up having around $1,200 dollars or more on the table in one round. again i say who has the bank to risk that. well i'm sure there are those who do but i know one guy who isn't about to throw that kind of money around so easily. .. lets not even do the math on the $10, $25 min tables.

Well, if you bet $10min to 2x$100max, and you bet in neg-EV counts only every other hand, then your effective spread is 1-40. zf

sagefr0g · May 19, 2007

ZenFan said:
Well, if you bet $10min to 2x$100max, and you bet in neg-EV counts only every other hand, then your effective spread is 1-40. zf

so how would you bet only every other hand in negative counts? you mean sit out every other neg ev hand or so mixed with bathroom breaks ect. ?

ZenFan · May 19, 2007

sagefr0g said:
so how would you bet only every other hand in negative counts? you mean sit out every other neg ev hand or so mixed with bathroom breaks ect. ?

Sure. Cellphone call, betting system ("Every time I lose two hands in a row, I sit out three-hands."), etc. But I'm just winging it here, not a real pro. Just spit-balling. zf

sagefr0g · May 19, 2007

another question about a 1:30 spread.
how is one supposed to structure such a spread. i guess it would have to involve going to two hands. even then it would seem a very rare event that one would come even close to making a max bet.

sagefr0g · May 19, 2007

craps

so Craps Master you can beat craps also right? i know your not going to give that information up. so ok then just post a bit about it. shed a little theory that it is possible, legally.

shadroch · May 19, 2007

CM,
If you were to recommend one book to a total newbie,which would it be?

QFIT · May 19, 2007

ScottH said:
It actually costs you less to increase your spread since when you increase your spread you will be lowering your minimum bet, not raising your max bet.

Well, actually you both decrease the min and increase the max if you wish to maintain the same risk with the same bankroll. Standard deviation will be higher. (about 20% higher going from 1-8 to 1-30 spread.) But EV will also increase (about 45-50%) The problem is your bets will jump around wildly at double deck if you want this gain. The more players at the table the wilder your bet changes. That means you should play heads-up; which unfortunately can make you more obvious. But even with heads-up play your betting will be highly erratic. If you attempt to smooth our your betting; you will quickly lose that EV gain.

Betting optimally, you will be betting the max about 2% of the time and betting 20 units or more about 6% of hands.

sagefr0g · May 19, 2007

QFIT said:
Well, actually you both decrease the min and increase the max if you wish to maintain the same risk with the same bankroll. Standard deviation will be higher. (about 20% higher going from 1-8 to 1-30 spread.) But EV will also increase (about 45-50%) The problem is your bets will jump around wildly at double deck if you want this gain. The more players at the table the wilder your bet changes. That means you should play heads-up; which unfortunately can make you more obvious. But even with heads-up play your betting will be highly erratic. If you attempt to smooth our your betting; you will quickly lose that EV gain.

Betting optimally, you will be betting the max about 2% of the time and betting 20 units or more about 6% of hands.

craps master advised playing shoes over two deckers when he talked about the 1:30 spread. i should imagine ones bets wouldn't jump around so much in shoe games. wouldn't likely get the greater degree of ev increase or as many opportunities to max bet either i should think. just pondering out load here not reallly sure.
still such a spread would require an awesome bankroll. so craps master when you employ such a spread what ROR do you keep at?

person1125 · May 19, 2007

sagefr0g said:
wouldn't likely get the greater degree of ev increase or as many opportunities to max bet either i should think.

I was thinking this too. At what true count are you going to spread to 2x15?

person1125 · May 19, 2007

shadroch said:
CM,
If you were to recommend one book to a total newbie,which would it be?

He will probably recommend Blackbelt in Blackjack.

Brutus · May 19, 2007

I wanna know about professional holecarding.
do you really have to buy a wheelchair, and wear a spit cup?

QFIT · May 19, 2007

sagefr0g said:
craps master advised playing shoes over two deckers when he talked about the 1:30 spread. i should imagine ones bets wouldn't jump around so much in shoe games.

I believe he suggested 1 to 3x30 or more (1-90 spread) at six decks. 1 to 2x15 ( 1-30 spread) at double deck. Playing black chips, 6 deck, S17, DAS, LS with a 1-90 spread and with one-third Kelly would require a bit over half a million bankroll and might bring a bit of attention. That's betting optimally with max bet at +6 for HiLo. The betting would still be very erratic to ramp up that quickly. If you ramp up slowly; you'll barey ever make a max bet and your win rate will tumble. You won't really be betting 1-90. With a hit and run style; you can certainly look like a gambler 'changing his stakes' if the count swings very high and bet very heavily above your one unit bet. But, you'll have to leave after the shoe and may have trouble returning after they look at the tapes.

EasyRhino · May 19, 2007

Crappie, two questions for you:

1) Player's cards ever: yes or no?

2) If yes, multiple or single identities?

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