Real Pros II

[ScottH]

correct me if i'm wrong Scott, you got a table minimum right. thats as low as you can go if your not wonging out or in right? most of us are lucky if we can find a table min of $5.00 . so if my unit is $10 say then yes i can bet below my unit by $5.00 but my max bet is going to be $300 for one hand with a 1:30 spread. with splits and doubles you could end up having around $1,200 dollars or more on the table in one round. again i say who has the bank to risk that. well i'm sure there are those who do but i know one guy who isn't about to throw that kind of money around so easily.
lets not even do the math on the $10, $25 min tables.

If your unit is too small to lower any further due to the table minimum, then don't spread 1-30. You shouldn't raise your max bet because then you will be overbetting your bankroll.

 

[ScottH]

Well, actually you both decrease the min and increase the max if you wish to maintain the same risk with the same bankroll. Standard deviation will be higher. (about 20% higher going from 1-8 to 1-30 spread.) But EV will also increase (about 45-50%) The problem is your bets will jump around wildly at double deck if you want this gain. The more players at the table the wilder your bet changes. That means you should play heads-up; which unfortunately can make you more obvious. But even with heads-up play your betting will be highly erratic. If you attempt to smooth our your betting; you will quickly lose that EV gain.

Betting optimally, you will be betting the max about 2% of the time and betting 20 units or more about 6% of hands.

It seems to me if you only lower your min bet to increase your spread your risk would be lower. You don't have to both lower your min and raise your max to increase your spread. If you're spreading 10-150 just spread 5-150 and you have your 1-30 spread and you aren't adding any more risk.

 

[supercoolmancool]

If your unit is too small to lower any further due to the table minimum, then don't spread 1-30. You shouldn't raise your max bet because then you will be overbetting your bankroll.

I think Craps Master recommends that pros don't play such ridiculously low stakes.

 

[ScottH]

I believe he suggested 1 to 3x30 or more (1-90 spread) at six decks. 1 to 2x15 ( 1-30 spread) at double deck. Playing black chips, 6 deck, S17, DAS, LS with a 1-90 spread and with one-third Kelly would require a bit over half a million bankroll and might bring a bit of attention. That's betting optimally with max bet at +6 for HiLo. The betting would still be very erratic to ramp up that quickly. If you ramp up slowly; you'll barey ever make a max bet and your win rate will tumble. You won't really be betting 1-90. With a hit and run style; you can certainly look like a gambler 'changing his stakes' if the count swings very high and bet very heavily above your one unit bet. But, you'll have to leave after the shoe and may have trouble returning after they look at the tapes.

I'm sure when he refers to a 1-90 spread, the "1" does not represent 1 unit of his bankroll, it is probably just a fraction of a unit. So to achieve the 1-90 spread you would play at a table that has a table minimum that is much lower than your unit size.

I assume in your example of betting black chips that the spread was 100-90000. Even if your unit size is 100 dollars you can still spread 10-900. Your max bet is only 9 units, but you are still employing a 1-90 spread.

Yes, this might still bring lots of attention, but you really aren't going to need a half million dollars since you're never really betting 90 units to get your 1-90 spread. You're just lowering your minimum bet below your unit to increase the spread.

 

[QFIT]

I'm sure when he refers to a 1-90 spread, the "1" does not represent 1 unit of his bankroll, it is probably just a fraction of a unit. So to achieve the 1-90 spread you would play at a table that has a table minimum that is much lower than your unit size.

I assume in your example of betting black chips that the spread was 100-90000. Even if your unit size is 100 dollars you can still spread 10-900. Your max bet is only 9 units, but you are still employing a 1-90 spread.

Yes, this might still bring lots of attention, but you really aren't going to need a half million dollars since you're never really betting 90 units to get your 1-90 spread. You're just lowering your minimum bet below your unit to increase the spread.

Depends on what you mean by "unit." But yes you could surely bet $10-$900. Only someone playing $10-$900 may look even more suspicious than $100-$9,000. (When's the last time you saw someone bet $10-$900?) You would have to play at a $10 table. (Unfortunately these tables often have less beneficial rules. And the table will often have more players slowing you down.) You would bet $10 70-75% of hands. Optimally, you would jump to $200 16% of hands. Your play would scream card counter even with a great act.

 

[QFIT]

It seems to me if you only lower your min bet to increase your spread your risk would be lower. You don't have to both lower your min and raise your max to increase your spread. If you're spreading 10-150 just spread 5-150 and you have your 1-30 spread and you aren't adding any more risk.

Yes. but you can lower your min and raise your max without increasing risk. Of course your risk of a barring increases

 

[Craps Master]

did i miss anything of value from the closed pro thread?

It sort of falls under the critical thinking part, but be aware that people trying to sell you something are trying to sell you something. That motive often undermines their word, and so you have to be careful about them touting their own products or someone else's product, because they're ultimately only interested in personal gain. They don't care about you.

another question:
who the heck can afford to risk a 1:30 spread?

I can.

I play the A02, and my author claims that with 1:4 spread in a single deck game i can have an advantage of up to 2% with favorable conditions[not ideal] on a dead even game.

Q: Does this mean that if i play the 6:5 [-1.5] i'll still have +.5 advantage.
If not, how much should i raise my betting INDICES and/or spread to compensate for this catastrophic rule. If at all?

note: I make a 2 unit bet @ +2 and 4 unit bet @ +3 w/1D remaining.

I make a 2 unit bet @ 0 and 4 unit bet @ +1 w/1/2 D remaining

p.s. Do the casinos consider these games unbeatable, Therefore allowing you to play more aggresively with less heat. I also use ace play adjustments to imorove the play of my hands.

It's not quite as straightforward as all that. For starters, good luck getting so-called favorable conditions even on a 6:5 game. They still tend to be Ro5 or Ro6, or sometimes even Ro4, which is really quite laughable, but that's how it is. Further, as the count goes up, the 6:5 payout on naturals is costing you more. So, a +1 to the count does not increase your edge as much as a +1 to the count in a standard single deck game would. So, not only do you start out with a bigger initial house edge to overcome, the value of an increase in the count is worth less and, as such, the spread you will need to employ to obtain a positive advantage is high. So high, in fact, that I don't recommend playing these games. They still draw more heat than a shoe at, say, a 1-20 spread or more.

I'm intrigued by this "card-steering" as you've previously described. Would you please give us a rundown of the basic concept and application, and perhaps an estimate of the likely available edge?
Much appreciated! zf

The most basic idea is mastering the n-card cut. In shoes, this is typically something along the lines of a 52-card cut and in single deck games, it's generally something between 13 and 17, depending on what you're trying to accomplish. There are two methods to this technique: the aim and cut or the cut and judge. In the former, you practice hitting the mark every time. In the latter, you practice being able to tell exactly how many cards you've cut after you've cut it. The professional employs both methods simultaneously. First trying to hit the mark and then judging to see if he did. You must practice them separately and then integrate them into one technique. The value of this comes from seeing the bottom card after the deck has been shuffled. You will find that this happens in nearly casino in the United States, by at least one dealer and sometimes by virtually all of them.

This is a physical technique in addition to a mental one. It will require that you tap into your kinesthetic awareness and memory, and that goes beyond the purely mental exercise of counting cards that lies squarely in many of our comfort zones. It requires, in effect, "turning your mind off" and trusting your hand and your eye. Take a Zen approach. You will be amazed at how consistent and precise you can get.

Well, if you bet $10min to 2x$100max, and you bet in neg-EV counts only every other hand, then your effective spread is 1-40. zf

Cell phone sit out tricks and other methods of one-table wonging are cute, but they're not practical on a sustained scale. Sure, you can get yourself out of an atrocious count every now and then, but this should not be some sort of bread and butter technique.

so Craps Master you can beat craps also right? i know your not going to give that information up. so ok then just post a bit about it. shed a little theory that it is possible, legally.

I have no free advice to offer about craps, except that there are only two pieces of literature worth a damn on that subject, and Wong's book and Scoblette's book aren't them.

CM,
If you were to recommend one book to a total newbie,which would it be?

As was predicted, I recommend Blackbelt in Blackjack.

I believe he suggested 1 to 3x30 or more (1-90 spread) at six decks. 1 to 2x15 ( 1-30 spread) at double deck. Playing black chips, 6 deck, S17, DAS, LS with a 1-90 spread and with one-third Kelly would require a bit over half a million bankroll and might bring a bit of attention. That's betting optimally with max bet at +6 for HiLo. The betting would still be very erratic to ramp up that quickly. If you ramp up slowly; you'll barey ever make a max bet and your win rate will tumble. You won't really be betting 1-90. With a hit and run style; you can certainly look like a gambler 'changing his stakes' if the count swings very high and bet very heavily above your one unit bet. But, you'll have to leave after the shoe and may have trouble returning after they look at the tapes.

And so you see the power. The bettor with the $10 min can pull it off with a $50,000 BR. The $5 min better with $25,000. Throw some wonging in there if you're a bonafide low-roller, and you can get your BR requirement down to $10,000 or less. But we also see here the non-professional's opinion about the reality of casino conditions. He thinks it will only work for one shoe. I know that with intelligent methods of heat deflection (the whale in the pit trick, for one), this kind of spread can be pulled off all night long.

Crappie, two questions for you:

1) Player's cards ever: yes or no?

2) If yes, multiple or single identities?

There is no definite yes or no to the first question. It depends on what you're up to. If you do elect to use a player's card, because you would like to look the part of the high roller more and would actually like to save some money on rooms and meals and so forth, then, yes, having different identities at different establishments is a good way to go. It'll make it harder for you to get nabbed a lot of places based on your play at one place. If you anticipate a long-term relationship with a casino where you'll be a relative high-roller, a player's card is a must these days. Sure, you can blow it off, but it eventually looks bad, and once the pit knows you anyway, you're not really saving yourself very much in the way of trackability and exposure. If you're going for the quick hit and run method and not returning to the same place much, you can do without.

If you do go for the player's card approach, just be sure to manufacture losses on it so the eventual net win doesn't give you away as someone playing with a positive edge. Are you all aware of how manufacturing a loss is done?

Depends on what you mean by "unit." But yes you could surely bet $10-$900. Only someone playing $10-$900 may look even more suspicious than $100-$9,000. (When's the last time you saw someone bet $10-$900?) You would have to play at a $10 table. (Unfortunately these tables often have less beneficial rules. And the table will often have more players slowing you down.) You would bet $10 70-75% of hands. Optimally, you would jump to $200 16% of hands. Your play would scream card counter even with a great act.

If the floor and the eye aren't watching, and if the dealer doesn't know how to count cards (easily determined after getting a little info about him or her), then who cares if you look like a card counter? If you must, you can sacrifice a little optimality by taking on extra variance by bouncing your bets around erratically in neutral counts.

 

[QFIT]

Jump your bet and checks played will be called. The dealer doesn't need to know how to count and the floor doesn't need to watch. There is a reason people don't spread 1-90.

 

[Kasi]

If you do elect to use a player's card, because you would like to look the part of the high roller more and would actually like to save some money on rooms and meals and so forth, then, yes, having different identities at different establishments is a good way to go. It'll make it harder for you to get nabbed a lot of places based on your play at one place......
Are you all aware of how manufacturing a loss is done?

Could u go into how u get different identities at different places? In general, it seems like I have to show ID to get one. Showing false ID doesn't sound like a great idea to me.

If they ask u for ID, are u required to show it or only to security if u r arrested, or even just asked for it?

And when does it become a crime to lie about who u r. Would u have to go to a judge way ahead of time to get a legal decree of an "alias" to make it legal that u were never mis-representing yourself?

I'd hate to win a jackpot and have some fake ID be the payee!?

As for manufacturing losses, my method is to give it to my wife to play slots.
Works every time

 

[Craps Master]

Jump your bet and chips played will be called. The dealer doesn't need to know how to count and the floor doesn't need to watch. There is a reason people don't spread 1-90.

The reason some people don't spread 1 - 3 x 30 (not 1 - 90, quit trying to obfuscate things) is that they take bad advice from non-players. Some houses (most of the major strip casinos, for example) have hard limits at which checks play is called. Let's assume you're playing at one whose limit for such is $1000. Thus, if you spread $30 to 3 x $900, you won't get 'checks played' called. If the limit is $500, you can escape by spreading $15 to 3 x $450, just as an example. The policy is not always to call 'checks play' just because of a bet jump and, in fact, most places with good conditions don't.

Secondly, the call may not even matter. Suppose the bosses are parked watching a guy betting 2 x $5000. If checks play is called for your bet of black, purple, or small yellow, they're going to glance over and nod and that's it. They're not going to investigate the situation, and they're also not going to call surveillance to investigate it. Why? Because it's their ass if some sort of mispay happens or, worse, some sort of scam advantage play takes place with the 2 x $5000 bettor, and they'd rather have surveillance watching that as well. That's the whole point of this technique. You just don't get the attention you think you should. The books and theoreticians ignore this reality and, instead, assume that the bosses will behave rationally and pay at least a little attention to the guy spreading 1 - 3 x 30 despite the guy flat betting a ton. Not so in the real world; any professional who makes serious money at blackjack will tell you the same.

I can't tell you how many times I've seen very notrious players get away with very big spreads and very big max bets for very long stretches all because of playing methods such as this. It really works and it really gets the money.

Anyway, this is exactly the kind of disinformation I warned you about in the first post. Assumptions and theory. Not day to day, real world playing conditions and methods of making a killing at the tables. QFIT may think he means well and, consciously, maybe he does, but please bear in mind that, at the end of the day, he is a salesman, and he does have a vested interest in trying to show himself off as an authority. I'm just here to tell you that a great many of his assumptions, just like those of other so-called "authorities," are drawn from a vacuum and do not reflect the reality of the conditions the working professional faces.

 

[Craps Master]

Could u go into how u get different identities at different places? In general, it seems like I have to show ID to get one. Showing false ID doesn't sound like a great idea to me.

If they ask u for ID, are u required to show it or only to security if u r arrested, or even just asked for it?

And when does it become a crime to lie about who u r. Would u have to go to a judge way ahead of time to get a legal decree of an "alias" to make it legal that u were never mis-representing yourself?

I'd hate to win a jackpot and have some fake ID be the payee!?

As for manufacturing losses, my method is to give it to my wife to play slots.
Works every time

As I'm sure the owner of this site does not condone illegal or borderline-illegal activities (well, I'm not completely sure of this, given the presence of certain self-proclaimed grifters running around, but I'll err on the side of caution), I'm going to leave it as an exercise to you to determine how best to establish different identities at different casinos. There are plenty of ways to do this, both illegally and legally, but it is the illegal methods that are the most popular among the working professionals, because they are the easiest and most efficient. You may want to consult some of the books published by Paladin Press for ideas on this front.

 

[QFIT]

If someone here wants to spread 1-90; go right ahead. But don't say I didn't warn you. My advice is based on my 30 years of experience. Not on some desire to hoodwink people. It's a shame that some people cannot make a single post without including accusations and insults.

 

[Craps Master]

If someone here wants to spread 1-90; go right ahead. But don't say I didn't warn you. My advice is based on my 30 years of experience. Not on some desire to hoodwink people. It's a shame that some people cannot make a single post without including accusations and insults.

You mean like you and how you insult us all by insisting that 1 - 3 x 30 is the same thing as 1 - 90? It's not. Not in terms of heat or RoR. It's not the same, so start addressing things correctly.

 

[ZenFan]

I'm intrigued by this "card-steering" as you've previously described. Would you please give us a rundown of the basic concept and application, and perhaps an estimate of the likely available edge?
Much appreciated! zf

The card-steering, please. zf

 

[QFIT]

You mean like you and how you insult us all by insisting that 1 - 3 x 30 is the same thing as 1 - 90? It's not. Not in terms of heat or RoR. It's not the same, so start addressing things correctly.

I never said it was the same. It's worse from a SCORE perspective.

 

[Kasi]

As I'm sure the owner of this site does not condone illegal or borderline-illegal activities ....There are plenty of ways to do this, both illegally and legally, but it is the illegal methods that are the most popular among the working professionals, because they are the easiest and most efficient.

It seems to me that you are the one who is promoting illegal methods, at least under certain circumstances, not the owner of the site.

And, now add that "illegal methods are the most popular among working professionals".

All those "theoretical books" never mention how jail time effects the ROR.

 

[Craps Master]

The card-steering, please. zf

Yes, I already answered that. Please see above.

 

[Craps Master]

It seems to me that you are the one who is promoting illegal methods, at least under certain circumstances, not the owner of the site.

And, now add that "illegal methods are the most popular among working professionals".

All those "theoretical books" never mention how jail time effects the ROR.

It seems to me you're conflating a bunch of things and not trying to comprehend what's actually being written. You can use illegal or legal methods to obtain different identities in different casinos. For more information, check out the books available from Paladin Press regarding identity. I don't advocate anything illegal; just because other pros actually do illegal things to obtain different identities in different casinos doesn't mean I advocate it. Read better, please.

 

[Sonny]

Re: Steering

The value of this [steering] comes from seeing the bottom card after the deck has been shuffled. You will find that this happens in nearly casino in the United States, by at least one dealer and sometimes by virtually all of them.

Just to expand on this a little (Craps Master has been VERY busy lately!), there are many opportunities to see cards during the shuffle. Things like high riffling, awkward cutting, angled stripping, and flashing during the stack can all be good chances to glimpse a card or two. Keep your eyes open and you’ll bee surprised what you’ll find.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

It seems to me you're conflating a bunch of things and not trying to comprehend what's actually being written. You can use illegal or legal methods to obtain different identities in different casinos. For more information, check out the books available from Paladin Press regarding identity. I don't advocate anything illegal; just because other pros actually do illegal things to obtain different identities in different casinos doesn't mean I advocate it. Read better, please.

Sorry I conflated things.

Glad to know

"If you do elect to use a player's card, because you would like to look the part of the high roller more and would actually like to save some money on rooms and meals and so forth, then, yes, having different identities at different establishments is a good way to go. It'll make it harder for you to get nabbed a lot of places based on your play at one place."

only implied that appearing as something different than u r, at different casinos, in order to avoid getting nabbed, is fine if and only if u do it legally.

I guess u assumed a newbie would naturally read some Paladin books on how to do it legally even though most pros do it illegally because it's the easiest way to do it.

Perhaps, for those of us who don't feel like getting the Paladin books, u could elaborate on some legal ways to go about it - u know, the ways that most pros, including perhaps u, don't do it.

After all, giving advice that is legal is what u r all about.

I assume, u, urself, have legally used different identities in the past?