I’m break even after 1,000 hours (excluding expenses). I don’t know what to say or what to think at this point. It’s just very very depressing. I’ve given up blackjack for the most part and my bankroll has thanked me ever since. I’m still a life time winner at blackjack to the tune of about 100k but I just can’t win anymore. It’s like something in the universe switched. It’s just not the same game to me.
1,000 hour break even
- Thread starter Runit
- Start date
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I'm just curious. Has it been one long break even run or was there a big negative run and slow climb back to even or something like that?
I have had 5 different stretches in my career were I went 40,000 -50,000 rounds (I track by rounds not hours) and was break even over that time. All consisted of a big loss and slow climb back. These runs can be very frustating and your 1000 hours is longer than any of my 5 runs, so I can only imagine the frustration.
I have had 5 different stretches in my career were I went 40,000 -50,000 rounds (I track by rounds not hours) and was break even over that time. All consisted of a big loss and slow climb back. These runs can be very frustating and your 1000 hours is longer than any of my 5 runs, so I can only imagine the frustration.
The result is in the neighborhood of two standard deviations. Unusual, but far, far from impossible. Such outcomes occur with 2.3% probability, or about once in 43. So, while, if you're the one out of 43 to whom this happens, you feel like shit, the fact is that it can and does happen.
Sorry for your experience, but, I can almost guarantee you that you next 1,000 hours will be quite different.
Don
Sorry for your experience, but, I can almost guarantee you that you next 1,000 hours will be quite different.
Don
Here’s the graph for some context. That big beating there was when during the first reopening. I started playing bigger, about 1.5-2x as big as I had in the past. I’m still betting larger than I use to because my bankroll has grown considerably since, over doubling.
I have more or less given up with blackjack. I still play on occasion to see how long it takes me to get out of this down swing, it’s more of a curiosity thing at this point more than anything else.
I have more or less given up with blackjack. I still play on occasion to see how long it takes me to get out of this down swing, it’s more of a curiosity thing at this point more than anything else.
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Your graph looks just like the stock market: positive, upward bias, with occasional downswings, some severe. You need to keep playing. Why would you think that you won't just continue to win again, as you did before?
Also, the results can be misleading, because if you increase your stakes at the very time that you hit a losing streak, that streak looks magnified, compared to earlier results.
Don
Also, the results can be misleading, because if you increase your stakes at the very time that you hit a losing streak, that streak looks magnified, compared to earlier results.
Don
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I hestitate to tell someone to keep playing if they no longer desire to or have lost that desire, or feel they don't want to deal with the swings that are part of this game. Other than that I agree with everything Don said. Looks like a pretty good graph to me. 
I do want to comment on something else Don said, "the results can be misleading, because if you increase your stakes at the very time that you hit a losing streak, that streak looks magnified".
I went through a bit of that last year. I generally play an amount, max betting just under $500 because it is an amount very well tolerated at my regular rotation of games. Occasionally I bump through $500 to $600 or $800 on busy weekends, holiday weekends or big event weekends (playing in the shadows of bigger bettors), but generally for most of my rotation, below $500.
So last year, that horrible year that it was with Covid and all, when the casinos reopned in June, I decided to double my stakes to max bet just below $1000. With masks required and pit personnel with new responsibilities, it just seemed like an opportunity to do so without drawing much additional heat. Well, wouldn't you know, I went on a massive losing streak just as I bumped up. I was losing so much and so fast, I actually erroneously decided the casinos (one in particular) MUST be cheating me. Turns out they weren't. It was just my mind running wild, because of bigger swings than I was used to because I had bumped up in stakes.
It took my a while to climb back out of that hole, and because I played off and on last fall and winter, shutting down a couple times, ended up in the black, but way below expectation for the year. My worse year blackjack-wise in my 11 in Las vegas. Actually my worst year since very early in my career (2006) when I was still playing red chip.
I guess the lesson learned is what Don said, a losing period just as you bump up can skew results negatively and the second thing that losing period seems to always occur right when you bump up. That is those those gambling/variance Gods and their harsh sense of humor.
I do want to comment on something else Don said, "the results can be misleading, because if you increase your stakes at the very time that you hit a losing streak, that streak looks magnified".
I went through a bit of that last year. I generally play an amount, max betting just under $500 because it is an amount very well tolerated at my regular rotation of games. Occasionally I bump through $500 to $600 or $800 on busy weekends, holiday weekends or big event weekends (playing in the shadows of bigger bettors), but generally for most of my rotation, below $500.
So last year, that horrible year that it was with Covid and all, when the casinos reopned in June, I decided to double my stakes to max bet just below $1000. With masks required and pit personnel with new responsibilities, it just seemed like an opportunity to do so without drawing much additional heat. Well, wouldn't you know, I went on a massive losing streak just as I bumped up.
I was losing so much and so fast, I actually erroneously decided the casinos (one in particular) MUST be cheating me. Turns out they weren't. It was just my mind running wild, because of bigger swings than I was used to because I had bumped up in stakes. It took my a while to climb back out of that hole, and because I played off and on last fall and winter, shutting down a couple times, ended up in the black, but way below expectation for the year. My worse year blackjack-wise in my 11 in Las vegas. Actually my worst year since very early in my career (2006) when I was still playing red chip.
I guess the lesson learned is what Don said, a losing period just as you bump up can skew results negatively and the second thing that losing period seems to always occur right when you bump up. That is those those gambling/variance Gods and their harsh sense of humor.
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Thanks guys, you’ve encouraged me to continue playing when I get the opportunity to do so. I’m curious to see how long it takes me to dig out in terms of hours. In real world time elapsed I’m not sure how long it will take since I don’t play blackjack full time anymore and it makes up a very small minority of my AP play.
Just hit a new low. Had a -$3,000 session betting 2x500. I told the pit boss I was counting cards because I didn’t want to play anymore and I didn’t want to be tempted to go back. He called surveillance and I was backed off in a few minutes.
Today I just came off another -$375 session after 5 minutes of play. I was fishing for a count betting $25 but the deck went negative e quickly.
My endurance for losses has dwindled the longer the losing streak has gone on and things I would typically brush off are now making me livid.
Right now I’m just about 40k off my all time high and a little shy of 300 hours off my ATH. The real world time elapsed in the down swing is about a year now. I haven’t been playing blackjack as my main source of revenue. That’s why I have the dismal hours in relation to real world time elapsed.
Today I just came off another -$375 session after 5 minutes of play. I was fishing for a count betting $25 but the deck went negative e quickly.
My endurance for losses has dwindled the longer the losing streak has gone on and things I would typically brush off are now making me livid.
Right now I’m just about 40k off my all time high and a little shy of 300 hours off my ATH. The real world time elapsed in the down swing is about a year now. I haven’t been playing blackjack as my main source of revenue. That’s why I have the dismal hours in relation to real world time elapsed.
Your emotional outlook is so poor right now that I would suggest you take a break from the game. Telling the pit boss that you were counting is really stupid. Didn't you have the ability to walk away on your own? What you're doing is what poker players refer to as "going on tilt," and so you really need to stop.Runit said:
Don
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Your losing period, while substantial, is not remarkable. I have had 5-6 that lasted as long and at least 3 that were 40k or more playing somewhat the same stakes. I know that doesn't help much, but it happens.
You can not measure against your previous all time high. That can only cause you to start chasing and go on tilt, essentially "chasing" that last all time high, that at the moment seems out of reach. Instead, I like to measure each session by the expectation generated for that session (EV). Then you start stringing together a few sessions above expectation, even small amounts and you are off and running. These streaks go both ways and before you know it, you have a new ATH.
One question I would ask, what was your preveious ATH in relationship to expectation for your play for that time? What I am thinking is if you had a monster positive run, resulting in that previous ATH, but were significantly ahead of EV or expectation, then measuring against that ATH is even more of a false measurement. right now.
Anyway, one of the single hardest things for me, even today, over a decade in at my current stakes, is to remain motivated to play when going through a LONG negative run. When I am winning, sure I am anxious to get back out the next day and play, when I am losing day after day, week after week for a couple months, not so much. Really try hard not to think about yesterday, last week or that previous ATH. Everyday is a new day, every session a new session. Just try to play well that session, build EV, trust in the math and the long-term (without chasing) and it will all fall back into place at some point.....it really will.
You can not measure against your previous all time high. That can only cause you to start chasing and go on tilt, essentially "chasing" that last all time high, that at the moment seems out of reach. Instead, I like to measure each session by the expectation generated for that session (EV). Then you start stringing together a few sessions above expectation, even small amounts and you are off and running. These streaks go both ways and before you know it, you have a new ATH.
One question I would ask, what was your preveious ATH in relationship to expectation for your play for that time? What I am thinking is if you had a monster positive run, resulting in that previous ATH, but were significantly ahead of EV or expectation, then measuring against that ATH is even more of a false measurement. right now.
Anyway, one of the single hardest things for me, even today, over a decade in at my current stakes, is to remain motivated to play when going through a LONG negative run. When I am winning, sure I am anxious to get back out the next day and play, when I am losing day after day, week after week for a couple months, not so much. Really try hard not to think about yesterday, last week or that previous ATH. Everyday is a new day, every session a new session. Just try to play well that session, build EV, trust in the math and the long-term (without chasing) and it will all fall back into place at some point.....it really will.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
My younger brother is currently going through a similar down turn, not quite as deep (almost 30k) over 3.5 months. It is the first time in his 4-5 year career his play has been below expectation and he is experiencing all the same doubts, and struggles. I try to keep telling him the same things I just told Runit. Just play for today, and the next thing you know you will start stringing together several winning (even small) days and before you know it, you have climbed back up that mountain. A player has to go through these periods several times and come out the other side, to really become comfortable with the swings and variance involved.
KJ, to answer your question I don’t know what my previous ATH was in relation to my EV and it’s not something I want to try to guess at. I had a friend of mine try to help me figure it over a period of time but there were so many changing variables that it became more head ache than it was worth.
Some good news: I decided I was going to play blackjack today until I recovered my $3,475 loss this month or dumped 10k. The 10k number being a figure I came up with at the table when I was down about $3,000-$4,000.
To make a long story short I ended up pulling a nice $3,625 win today on a Double deck game with deep penetration.
Some good news: I decided I was going to play blackjack today until I recovered my $3,475 loss this month or dumped 10k. The 10k number being a figure I came up with at the table when I was down about $3,000-$4,000.
To make a long story short I ended up pulling a nice $3,625 win today on a Double deck game with deep penetration.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Congrats on the win today. But those kind of short term goals and targets are not good, even though you won. You really have to change your thought process from short-trem to long-term, becasue in the short term, a day, couple days a week, anything can and WILL happen, but long-term, it all works out pretty close to what that math dictates.Runit said:
So you recovered your $3,475. Are you now done for the month?
I understand, I think that the monetary goal for this session helped me get in the hours in this case because what I’ve found is that I will take a hit and then kind of scurry away and hide like a battered dog.
i completely realize that it’s just one long session and the more that the edge is applied the more EV will be generated and the closer our AV will converge with that EV in terms of percentages. Making it so that even a horrendous -3SD run doesn’t look all that bad if there’s a massive amount of hours applied.
Thankfully I’m in a scenario in which I don’t need to play blackjack so if it’s messing with me psychologically it’s best to stay away because it may hinder my ability to work efficiently in other areas.
i completely realize that it’s just one long session and the more that the edge is applied the more EV will be generated and the closer our AV will converge with that EV in terms of percentages. Making it so that even a horrendous -3SD run doesn’t look all that bad if there’s a massive amount of hours applied.
Thankfully I’m in a scenario in which I don’t need to play blackjack so if it’s messing with me psychologically it’s best to stay away because it may hinder my ability to work efficiently in other areas.