2 Month Journey.. In Hell

[ortango]

Yep, its another sob story. I am not asking for sympathy, I just feel that it is worth telling because people like watching others suffer. Why else would horror movies and the newspaper exist, and why do we all slow down to watch an accident?

Two months ago I started on this journey. Another ploppie with too much money to spend, but found out that there may be a way to beat the casino. Card counting is for me. I always did poorly in advanced mathematics but I have always been ridiculously fast in basic arithmetic and have a great memory. I also had $10,000 to play with, which I found later was a decent bankroll for a $10-100 spread.

Of course I would not start that high. I had a lot of work to do. Thanks to the fine people on this site and others, I dug for every advantage. I live 5 mins from a casino with a great game and amazingly dim witted pit monkeys. I coudn't get enough. Most of you have been there or are there now. All that I needed... information and lots of practice. I indulged in both.

In two months time, I can now count down a deck in about 10 seconds. I spent probably 20 hours or more with a deck, counting it out with different starting counts, pulling out random cards, and one at a time or just spreading them out. I can count down 8 decks in the casino without a hiccup. I am now ridiculously fast at BS, on blackjack-bst.com my last results were 322 seconds with no mistakes for 285 hands. I know the Illustrious 18 like my own mother. No mistakes, no doubts. I have created my own charts, flash cards, and other mnemonics. In the last month I have read: Professional Blackjack, KO Blackjack, Bluebook, Big Book of BJ, Theory of BJ, Bringing down the house, Blackjack Attack and Blackbelt in BJ, all of which I got from Amazon.

.........


I am now down $6000, or 600 units. My own personal hell.

Let me give an example of my last trip... my trip bankrolls are not very big, since I make frequent short trips. I have now worked the courage to play $10-100 and take $900 for this trip.

There I am nonchalantly backcounting two tables, flirting with the waitresses, using my broken Korean to make goo goo eyes at them and making em laugh. 30 mins later I am tired of waiting for a good table, and go into a new shoe with 10 bucks betting. It never goes above +2 TC on a 8d shoe. But here is the kicker. A guy playing flat $10 the whole night goes for the kamikazee with $140. Ah, nice S17 with a dealer 6. Fred Renzey is creaming his pants somewhere. I ask the guy, "no way you will hit that more than once right?" he says "no way" and proceeds to let me drop my $140 next to his. We get 18 and the dealer 19. Barf.

Two hours and 2 unremarkable shoes later, there is finally some hope. The TC crawls up to +5 then +10. I put out my $80. Lose. About 1 deck to play and its at +11 TC. I put out $100. Lose. Stays at +11 TC. Two hands of $100. Lose. +12 TC... get a 16 v 10 and I surrender. Last hand +9. Lose.

I am neither shaken nor disappointed. I am not mad or surprised. I really have no feeling either way. All I can remember is the beginning of Theory of Blackjack, where Peter Griffin, one of the best players and experts ever, claims he is behind in the long run. $4000 left. That sure would buy a lot of Happy Meals.

 

[nc-tom]

Yep, its another sob story. I am not asking for sympathy, I just feel that it is worth telling because people like watching others suffer. Why else would horror movies and the newspaper exist, and why do we all slow down to watch an accident?

Two months ago I started on this journey. Another ploppie with too much money to spend, but found out that there may be a way to beat the casino. Card counting is for me. I always did poorly in advanced mathematics but I have always been ridiculously fast in basic arithmetic and have a great memory. I also had $10,000 to play with, which I found later was a decent bankroll for a $10-100 spread.

Of course I would not start that high. I had a lot of work to do. Thanks to the fine people on this site and others, I dug for every advantage. I live 5 mins from a casino with a great game and amazingly dim witted pit monkeys. I coudn't get enough. Most of you have been there or are there now. All that I needed... information and lots of practice. I indulged in both.

In two months time, I can now count down a deck in about 10 seconds. I spent probably 20 hours or more with a deck, counting it out with different starting counts, pulling out random cards, and one at a time or just spreading them out. I can count down 8 decks in the casino without a hiccup. I am now ridiculously fast at BS, on blackjack-bst.com my last results were 322 seconds with no mistakes for 285 hands. I know the Illustrious 18 like my own mother. No mistakes, no doubts. I have created my own charts, flash cards, and other mnemonics. In the last month I have read: Professional Blackjack, KO Blackjack, Bluebook, Big Book of BJ, Theory of BJ, Bringing down the house, Blackjack Attack and Blackbelt in BJ, all of which I got from Amazon.

.........


I am now down $6000, or 600 units. My own personal hell.

Let me give an example of my last trip... my trip bankrolls are not very big, since I make frequent short trips. I have now worked the courage to play $10-100 and take $900 for this trip.

There I am nonchalantly backcounting two tables, flirting with the waitresses, using my broken Korean to make goo goo eyes at them and making em laugh. 30 mins later I am tired of waiting for a good table, and go into a new shoe with 10 bucks betting. It never goes above +2 TC on a 8d shoe. But here is the kicker. A guy playing flat $10 the whole night goes for the kamikazee with $140. Ah, nice S17 with a dealer 6. Fred Renzey is creaming his pants somewhere. I ask the guy, "no way you will hit that more than once right?" he says "no way" and proceeds to let me drop my $140 next to his. We get 18 and the dealer 19. Barf.

Two hours and 2 unremarkable shoes later, there is finally some hope. The TC crawls up to +5 then +10. I put out my $80. Lose. About 1 deck to play and its at +11 TC. I put out $100. Lose. Stays at +11 TC. Two hands of $100. Lose. +12 TC... get a 16 v 10 and I surrender. Last hand +9. Lose.

I am neither shaken nor disappointed. I am not mad or surprised. I really have no feeling either way. All I can remember is the beginning of Theory of Blackjack, where Peter Griffin, one of the best players and experts ever, claims he is behind in the long run. $4000 left. That sure would buy a lot of Happy Meals.

Know how you feel my last 5 visits to casinoland have been just as you decribied, Barf.Makes you realize that there is a big difference between reading about neg flux and experiencing it.But tomorrow is a new day so back to studying and working on our game.Hang in there.

 

[mgcasinos]

You are really Illustrious after I read your post.

Some advices for you:

1, You'd better not play $10-100 with only $900 for this trip. The decent bankroll for a $10-100 spread is $10000 as you play before.

2,"I coudn't get enough." No! You get enough----All the time.

3, Nobody here like watching others suffer, It's just your thought. Feel here warmly...



.

 

[sagefr0g]

sorry if i'm being a jerk

Yep, its another sob story. I am not asking for sympathy, ....................................................................................... I also had $10,000 to play with, which I found later was a decent bankroll for a $10-100 spread.

.......................

Let me give an example of my last trip... my trip bankrolls are not very big, since I make frequent short trips. I have now worked the courage to play $10-100 and take $900 for this trip.

.........................................................

30 mins later I am tired of waiting for a good table, and go into a new shoe with 10 bucks betting. It never goes above +2 TC on a 8d shoe. But here is the kicker. A guy playing flat $10 the whole night goes for the kamikazee with $140. Ah, nice S17 with a dealer 6. Fred Renzey is creaming his pants somewhere. I ask the guy, "no way you will hit that more than once right?" he says "no way" and proceeds to let me drop my $140 next to his. We get 18 and the dealer 19. Barf.

Two hours and 2 unremarkable shoes later, there is finally some hope. The TC crawls up to +5 then +10. I put out my $80. Lose. About 1 deck to play and its at +11 TC. I put out $100. Lose. Stays at +11 TC. Two hands of $100. Lose. +12 TC... get a 16 v 10 and I surrender. Last hand +9. Lose.

........................
$4000 left. That sure would buy a lot of Happy Meals.

you want no sympathey but you have it Orto.

i took the liberty to cut your post down and abstract as above.

you have been overbetting for your bankroll.
ten thousand dollars is a lot of money. it is not a lot of money when your trying to beat the dealer. you should have been betting much more conservatively. no way should you have put $140 on the line if the count was plus two. your still overbetting your bankroll for those really high counts of plus five and plus ten ect. as you describe above.
you are playing eight deck games. those are games are monsters. they need to be attacked conservatively if you don't have the bankroll to back up your attack. if you are going to overbet your bankroll you need to at least monitor the affect it is having on the overall roll and make some adjustments to your betting strategy and examine your actions to see if there is a problem in your play. granted it is true that you can play perfectly and according to your bankroll and these kind of hellish situations can arise but you still need to stop think and react accordingly when the house is falling down on you like it has done. there seems to be an attitude among some advantage players that they should just play like robots, just as their computer simulators do. such thinking is an error, doing so is not taking advantage of the one thing we have over computers and that is wisdom and genuine intelligence. use it!
you have four grand left. you need to adjust your betting strategy to fit that bankroll. you need examine how you have been playing and see if there is a problem with your game plan. example betting as high as you were in a plus two situation.
i know i sound like a jerk here and i'm sorry. you need to hear it.

very best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[Automatic Monkey]

you want no sympathey but you have it Orto.

i took the liberty to cut your post down and abstract as above.

you have been overbetting for your bankroll.
ten thousand dollars is a lot of money. it is not a lot of money when your trying to beat the dealer. you should have been betting much more conservatively. no way should you have put $140 on the line if the count was plus two....

Wait I don't think he said that. I think he partnered with another player for $140 on a DD A6 vs. 6. That's a huge advantage, worth more than $140 with a $10K bankroll.

 

[ortango]

Ack! I ask for no sympathy and that is what you guys are giving. You're the best. Well, tom, mg, sage... you guys are right. It is a bad streak, I have been overbetting, and I need to tweak my strategy. Its probably because I know my BR is replenishable, but it still sucks. But you have given me a little hope.. since I did think about tossing in the gloves and considering the $6000 "tuition".

First I need to read up on bet sizing more. Second, like sage says, my "robotical" behavior may need some relaxing (no I will not use intuition ) Possibly seek out a good partner or two? Sorry for the suck fest guys, I'm sure you have all been there. I will keep up the good fight.

 

[ortango]

Wait I don't think he said that. I think he partnered with another player for $140 on a DD A6 vs. 6. That's a huge advantage, worth more than $140 with a $10K bankroll.

Even though I dont know the math offhand, my "internal math" told me I could not pass that up. The count was basically even, but to me it seemed like a gold mine.

 

[sagefr0g]

Second, like sage says, my "robotical" behavior may need some relaxing (no I will not use intuition )

i know you know this. i just want to say it for other readers.
don't give up your intuiton either. i know your point was that your not going to play ploppy type of logic and that is correct.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[sagefr0g]

Wait I don't think he said that. I think he partnered with another player for $140 on a DD A6 vs. 6. That's a huge advantage, worth more than $140 with a $10K bankroll.

it's just my opinion (how i view ROR & the nature of the subjective term overbetting). regardless of the advantage with only ten grand i don't think he should be betting that high at any count.
i don't think he should bet over $65 max in any case unless doubling or splitting on that max.
now that he's just got four grand his max shouldn't be over $30 and thats a bit high.
i'm basing this on how Stanford Wong states he figures his max bets in Professional Blackjack. according to him he makes his max bet 1/150 th of what he is willing to lose total (paraphrasing here).

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[ihate17]

Ortango

As they say in the old country, mi ahn hum neda, or sorry about that.

That stuff has happened to everyone who plays this game and on an 8 deck shoe it can happen perhaps a little more often. By the way, what is the penetration on the game?

ihate17

 

[jimbiggs]

Some of these responses are a little confusing to me. He's only spreading 1-10 on an eight deck shoe. When I play eight deck, which isn't very often, I try to spread 1-20. With $10K bankroll, a top bet of $100 is what has been preached as gospel. ZG has even said that you could go higher if you split it between hands 2 X $75.

The thing in the OP that indicates that he may have a problem was that he said he was playing a shoe that got up to +10, +11, +12 with one deck left. I've very rarely seen an eight deck shoe go past +6 or +7. I've never seen an eight deck shoe where they cut off less than one deck. The best penetration I've ever seen on an eight deck shoe was one where the cut off one and a half decks for 83% pen. I think he may have a problem with converting running count to true count. That would definately cause him to over bet and along with some negative variance, would wipe him out.

Good luck my friend. If you could post more about the game your playing and give us the pen, you would get some much more informed responses. Unless your eight deck game offers awesome pen. or average pen. with LS, I probably wouldn't spend much time with it.

 

[sagefr0g]

It is a bad streak, I have been overbetting, and I need to tweak my strategy. Its probably because I know my BR is replenishable, but it still sucks.

i wasn't aware your bankroll was repenishable. it is quite possible that you were not overbetting in that case. Arnold Snyder treats this issue in Blackbelt In Blackjack. according to Snyder if you can replenish your bankroll anually you could bet a $10,000 bankroll as follows:
for True Edge of 1% bet $25
for True Edge of 2% bet $50
for True Edge of 3% bet $75
for True Edge of 4% bet $100
note: this would be replenishable by $833 per month. you could play that $833 as if you had a ten grand bankroll. he warns that if you lose the $833 that you have to wait till you get the next $833 before playing again.
note: True Edge is as defined for the Red7, HiLo-lite or the Zen counts.
(i put it HiLo-Lite even though Snyder didn't word it that way as that is what i believe he meant).

that being said i'd still tone those bets down considerably, it's obvious the rate at which your bankroll is fluctuating isn't sitting well with you. you can still make a tidy sum of loot by betting more conservatively. you have only been playing for a few months. you need experience, there could be things happening in these games that you are not aware of. example, i played for months thinking i was playing a six deck game when it was often an eight deck game. it turned out the joint had a mix of eight and six deck games. i missed that fact. so i was miss-calculating the true count all those times. it was just luck that i still turned out mostly winner but there were times when i was getting beat the snot out of and couldn't figure why in the world it had gone so bad. there i was miss-calculating the true count.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[ortango]

Good luck my friend. If you could post more about the game your playing and give us the pen, you would get some much more informed responses. Unless your eight deck game offers awesome pen. or average pen. with LS, I probably wouldn't spend much time with it.

IH17 - I see your Korean isn't too rusty hehe,

To answer you and jim, pen was a ridiculous 85% on that shoe. The dealers vary from 70% to 80% there, and the nice Ms. Kim (the fastest dealer there hands down) relieved Ms. Lee who gives godly pen. I know most of them by name, pen and preference in men (a really charming Ms. Park is looking for a hubby but he can't be into gambling...:sad: )

Yes, there was one deck left to play, and about two decks left in the shoe. I have become very accurate with 8d since it has been all I play since I started two months ago. It was at +22 RC which is how I got +11 TC at that point. Majority were 20 hands, the dealer getting a blackjack and 3 20's, I got stiffs. I know they do not deal short decks. One time I was suspicious because I had 5 positive shoes in a row once but it wasn't by much and in the long run, there have been mostly equal amount of negative shoes.

I will be going for a promo tonight guys, (in the Far East forum). Wish me luck, and thanks for your advice.

 

[Mikeaber]

I've little advice for you my friend. It sounds like the "right outcome" just didn't "come out right!" I haven't been playing 8-D but I've had my share of bad beats with 6-D here lately. In a slump myself though on a much smaller scale than you.

I'm chomping at the bits to get to some good double deck next week!

I'm wishing you well as you lock and load for your next trip. Oh, maybe you can sweet talk that Ms. Park...but do you have to marry her?

 

[ortango]

Well, my last trip was encouraging. Brought home $1700 profit and $120 cash comps after a 9 hour marathon. Some highlights...

- One shoe was the hottest I have ever seen on 8d. After approx 1 1/2 decks, it was +32 RC. It never dropped below +26, ending with a +12 TC. I was up $3400 after that shoe. Greed played a big part, as two old japanese guys came in playing minimum bet. I didn't want to give up half the hands to these guys and played 3x12 units for the whole shoe. There was one particulary bad hand where 3x12 became 6x12 with sp/dble ($720) and the dealer pulled out a 21. But I still beat him down good and I could hardly control my hands from trembling on every stiff hit.. haha.

- I gathered up 12 tickets for the drawing, hitting seven suited blackjacks in a few hours for extra tickets. It seemed like none of the players really knew about the promo, but I called the PB for a ticket each time I got one. There were just under 900 tickets, and 8 prizes ranging from $1000 to $3000 in chips. I had a 10.7% chance of winning one!! Of course I didn't win... a friend of mine won one, but she left earlier in the evening and missed out on $2000

- At the casino they have a number of "greeters". In most Korean stores and such there are always a bunch of beautiful young girls who greet you into places. The casino is the same, and they handle short tours of the casino to wide eyed tourists and handle comps, etc. Well, one girl that speaks English pretty well hosted the English portion of the drawing promo that night. She choked a few times but pressed through, and I complimented her later that night. As a prior English teacher and Korean teacher I know it's really hard to speak in a public forum like that without confidence in the language. Anyway, she says that maybe I could help her with her English and I gladly accept, and got her number. In the past, tutoring sessions such as these have been... lucrative.

- When I came home at 4 am the wife was on the couch. She was pissed off and crying (not good). My copies of Big Book of BJ, Theory of BJ and KO were in the trash, along with my deck of cards I always keep in my bag and my I18 flash cards. She says to me, in korean of course.. "choose - me or this damn game". Somehow I convince her that I can't give it up, and we reach an easy compromise. Me - I will only go to the casino a week (instead of 4-5 times a week) Her - she will not complain about it and let me stay a long time. In the morning she was fine, she was just mad that I went out so late.

I don't think the tutoring session with the host was worth mentioning to her.

Uh oh.. this is starting to sound like a Blog.. Ken, feel free to delete this trash!:laugh:

 

[ihate17]

Ortango

Glad you reached a compromise.
Since casino gambling in Korea is aimed just at foreign players, is your wife able to join you there, even if she can not play. Or has she become an American citizen?

My experience is that Koreans are big gamblers. Every Korean family probably has someone who has lost everything gambling. This results in most Koreans I know are either gamblers or extremely against the activity, with few being inbetween.

Going to the casino 4-5 times per week is really a ton of times and if you hit a very bad streak it becomes very possible for your replenishable bankroll to become unreplenishable without your cutting back.
Also, I have been asked many times why I never became a professional blackjack player. Besides my not likeing to live constantly in hotels and too much travel, you pointed out another reason, family! Besides family, I think you mentioned being in the service and playing 4-5 days, getting in early AM, will at some point effect you in your career performance. Playing once per week is probably a good decision.

Are you in Yong San? I read that the U.S. is giving that property back to the Koreans for development and moving headquarters down to the camp Humphries area. Is that correct?

ihate17, was the commander of GP Katie in the DMZ, Co. of the 226 signal battallion at Camp Page (Chun Chon) is this camp still there? This was over 35 years ago. Later ran the operations for a major U.S. Corp in Korea that worked with the U.S. Army and both the Korean government and army.
I may go back there next year for my first visit in a long time.

ihate17

 

[ortango]

Glad you reached a compromise.
Since casino gambling in Korea is aimed just at foreign players, is your wife able to join you there, even if she can not play. Or has she become an American citizen?

Yes, only foreigners but Koreans with US permanent resident cards can play. But she is too busy watching our 1 yr old to join me usually. (yes, not only am I a great husband....)

My experience is that Koreans are big gamblers. Every Korean family probably has someone who has lost everything gambling. This results in most Koreans I know are either gamblers or extremely against the activity, with few being inbetween.

It's a sad fact that Koreans are habitual and ill prepared gamblers. This dates back to thousands of years, and is compounded by two terrible factors: cultural need to "save face" by playing way bigger than one can afford and being exceptionally vulnerable to superstition as opposed to the odds. They also have not been playing BJ since the 20's like us and most dont even have basic western deck composition internalized. Likewise, never play "Go, Stop", the Korean card game of Hwa-to for money with Koreans. They will rape you just as a seasoned poker player would to a newbie. Playing a dollar a point, a one game loss in Go Stop can cost you 3 dollars to over 200!

Besides my not likeing to live constantly in hotels and too much travel, you pointed out another reason, family!

Ah to be a free young buck once again.. but my marriage to my wife is more important than my marriage to Blackjack. (but which has the higher Risk of Ruin??) I usually pop in for a couple hours before or after work, but I think this once a week thing will be better. Also I hate second hand smoke... cough..

Are you in Yong San? I read that the U.S. is giving that property back to the Koreans for development and moving headquarters down to the camp Humphries area. Is that correct?

Yongsan is supposed to be given back to the Koreans by 2009 but they are behind schedule. They will move every thing to Pyongtaek (bye bye 5 min casino..:cry: ) The garrison golf course has already been used to build the National Museum of Korea (btw don't go there, there are much better museums)

ihate17, was the commander of GP Katie in the DMZ, Co. of the 226 signal battallion at Camp Page (Chun Chon) is this camp still there? ... I may go back there next year for my first visit in a long time.

I'll have to check with my Army buddies about that. If you come to Korea, I hope we can hang out. You wont even recognize the country, I guarantee you. Of course we have the burn the tables together too, .

 

[ihate17]

Ortango A goof in prior post

It was the 226 Sinal Company, not batallion.

Might just take you up on meeting up in Korea.

ihate17

 

[ortango]

Born Again Counter

Not sure if anyone cares, but I have made quite the comeback. After losing $6000 of my $10000 bankroll, I took my $4000 to $15000 in 6 trips. One small loss trip, one push trip and 4 big win trips. THIS is how I should actually be doing methinks! (maybe not this well) Anyway, for a while there I was starting to think this is one big conspiracy... that these experts... Arnold Snyder is a casino funded spook, Edward Thorp never existed, Fred Renzy is actually an alien, ZG has drunk too much of his own pee, Peter Griffin actually IS the dad from Family Guy and that Ken Smith runs this site as a practical joke. Ok, maybe not. But I WAS losing my faith in this whole counting thing.

Now I realize, even without computer simulations how often you lose on negative and how often you win during high counts. There is no mistake and no mystery. I have also stepped up my play immensely, and can get in some crazy hand interactions at my casino, and wonging that you guys would cream your pants about. I am so close to the people there, they actually let me wong out and let me wander at other tables, while the dealer reshuffles for me to come back to a new shoe, because I didn't like the "vibe of the table". They love me there because I am the only guy that doesn't scream and swear at the dealers when I lose. (a religious practice by Korean men and women). And my cover is so perfect its ridiculous. One pit boss actually said to that I am a good player since I sometimes hit on 16 and sometimes stay DEPENDING ON THE STREAK THE DEALER IS HAVING.

One pit boss that likes me lets me get away with murder. I made a HORRIBLE mistake today. I had a pair of 4's to the dealers 5 and put out my money for the split. The waitress comes around to give me my drink and the dealer softly asks me to if I want to DOUBLE. This was not ill-intended of her, its actually because morons that play there actually double on this more often than splitting them. I as I tip tip the waitress I nod to the dealer, confirming the DOUBLE by accident! As soon as she pulls out the card, I realize what I did but its too late! And she pulled out a 7 would have made an 11 hand! Of course she calls the pit boss over, who promptly says, did you want a split or double? I say split, but I admit the dealer asked me and I did confirm the double. SHE LETS ME SPLIT ANYWAY. I get a 21 and a 12. The dealer busts and the PB smiles at me and says "good for you!" Ah, I love my casino.

One particuarly funny interaction today, I wanted to double down on a soft 17 against the dealers 6. The guy next to me had out two 600 dollar bets. As I put my money out, he screams "NO" the DEALER IS GOING TO BUST IF YOU TAKE A CARD!"... of course I laugh at him and put my money out. He puts $50 (what I was betting) in front of me and says I can have it if I stay. Now my mind is racing like crazy with odds. I think 17 is actually an underdog against a 6, but of course it is to my advantage to double. But he was paying me off, and I still had a chance to win, so I took the money. The dealer gets a 22 and we win and the guy is ECSTATIC... and I tell the guy, "you know, I would have won twice the money if I doubled." and he HANDS ME ANOTHER $50! (not realizing I ALREADY WON $100) So I won $150 risking $50. I doubt many people have done that without a sidebet! LOL.

I know this is a fleeting moment in what is to be my long life in counting (I'm 29) but I will not lose my faith in the counting gods again, even if it goes south.
:cow:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...

I know this is a fleeting moment in what is to be my long life in counting (I'm 29) but I will not lose my faith in the counting gods again, even if it goes south.
:cow:

That's the spirit! We always walk into the casino with great expectations and to walk out 3-4 or more times in a row with a loss is a place where human perception does not mate will with the mathematical realities of the game. Read Wong's "Abnormal Psychology" article that explains that normal human psychology would not accept the normal losses in BJ and still perceive it to be a winning game.

Also a must-read is Brett Harris' N0 theory. The N0 is the number of hands you have to play to have a one standard deviation expectation of being ahead, and for most shoe games it's around 20,000. 20,000 hands is a very long time for a part-timer. And there's absolutely nothing you can do about it.