2 Month Journey.. In Hell

[ihate17]

Glad you are back, on the board and in bankroll

Ortango

Some casino types say that cardcounters think their casino is a personal ATM machine, you are learning just how untrue that statement is. You will win, over time, but it is always kind of a rollercoaster ride.
Now you have graduated from just a cardcounter. You are finding other ways to get advantages such as wonging and being liked by the pit. You might discover even more someday.

Now getting a favors from the pit is something I often get but you must remember that pits change and their bosses change in some places often. A slight change in management of the games can end this easily. There are two places where I play often and at both places they know I count but have never limited my spread technically, what they did was tell me what my max bet is. I play within those outlines and never cause any problems in those casinos.

ihate17

 

[ortango]

That's the spirit! We always walk into the casino with great expectations and to walk out 3-4 or more times in a row with a loss is a place where human perception does not mate will with the mathematical realities of the game.

Thats very interesting, and you are right. It is so easy for me to accept that I won 5 trips in a row... but my mind tells me that it must not be a winning game after 3 losing trips, which doesn't make any sense when the odds are so tight.

Ortango
Now getting a favors from the pit is something I often get but you must remember that pits change and their bosses change in some places often. A slight change in management of the games can end this easily. There are two places where I play often and at both places they know I count but have never limited my spread technically, what they did was tell me what my max bet is. I play within those outlines and never cause any problems in those casinos.
ihate17

Fortunately I have not had any restrictions at my local joint, and they even provide all the free meals, drinks and snacks I can eat (they even give free packs of cigs, unfortunately). Not to mention $1400 cash comps in 2 months.

INTERESTING thing today... I was talking to one of the casino hosts, who I am good friends with. I casually asked her if there are a lot of people who get kicked out of the casino for cheating, and she tells me that they have never kicked anyone out except for fighting, and that the casino DOES NOT BAR PEOPLE FROM PLAYING no matter how much they win. Unlike Walker Hill, she claims that Seven Luck is run by the Korean Department of Tourism and they will never stop someone just for winning, unless they are cheaters or fight or something. Now, I did not press this matter but of course I am curious of their definition of "cheating". This aint the USA so maybe CC does fall under cheating. The point is she has been there since they opened in May and she hasn't seen anyone kicked for winning. Any thoughts?

:cow:

 

[sagefr0g]

Not sure if anyone cares, but I have made quite the comeback. After losing $6000 of my $10000 bankroll, I took my $4000 to $15000 in 6 trips. One small loss trip, one push trip and 4 big win trips. THIS is how I should actually be doing methinks! (maybe not this well) Anyway, for a while there I was starting to think this is one big conspiracy... that these experts... Arnold Snyder is a casino funded spook, Edward Thorp never existed, Fred Renzy is actually an alien, ZG has drunk too much of his own pee, Peter Griffin actually IS the dad from Family Guy and that Ken Smith runs this site as a practical joke. Ok, maybe not. But I WAS losing my faith in this whole counting thing.

:celebrate
Ort, i'm very happy for you that things have turned around for you.
keep your doubts my friend just never doubt yourself. and be careful, wary as a fox. sometimes there are things going on we don't realize, and i don't mean cheating it's just that these joints can come up with some things and situations that throw us off track. cast those doubts and suspicions on the casino and what it is up to. example, i once played a joint that i thought was all six deck. it turned out they had sprinklings of six deck games here and there interspersed with mostly eight deck games. here i was calibrating my play for six decks while playing this joint only to realize the true situation when it was too late.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[Bojack1]

:celebrate
Ort, i'm very happy for you that things have turned around for you.
keep your doubts my friend just never doubt yourself. and be careful, wary as a fox. sometimes there are things going on we don't realize, and i don't mean cheating it's just that these joints can come up with some things and situations that throw us off track. cast those doubts and suspicions on the casino and what it is up to. example, i once played a joint that i thought was all six deck. it turned out they had sprinklings of six deck games here and there interspersed with mostly eight deck games. here i was calibrating my play for six decks while playing this joint only to realize the true situation when it was too late.

best regards,
mr fr0g

I hope you weren't using a count where you needed to convert the true count, because if you were and you can't tell the difference between 6 and 8 decks, shame on you, not the casino. Even still, 2 decks is quite a size difference that should be picked up on no matter what count you're using. Its also something that should be noticed when scouting out the tables looking for one with good penetration, or if you're backcounting. Thats a novice mistake, which would worry me what other simple mistakes am I making thats probably crushing my E.V. Sometimes players blame standard deviation for their losses, how often do you think it might be sub standard play? I say this only because a friend of mine teaches blackjack seminars and he can't believe how much people overestimate there counting skills. It might not be the case here, but sometimes its easy to overlook some things that are right in front of us.

 

[sagefr0g]

I hope you weren't using a count where you needed to convert the true count, because if you were and you can't tell the difference between 6 and 8 decks, shame on you, not the casino. Even still, 2 decks is quite a size difference that should be picked up on no matter what count you're using. Its also something that should be noticed when scouting out the tables looking for one with good penetration, or if you're backcounting. Thats a novice mistake, which would worry me what other simple mistakes am I making thats probably crushing my E.V.

right it was a novice mistake. fairly early in my attempts at advantage play. it's been a rather bumpy crusade for myself since i've embarked on advantage play. many mistakes along the way. actually i've only been playing about a year and a half so i very much still consider myself a novice still. Ort i believe had mentioned earlier that his experience has been months rather than years so i thought the example could be enlightening for him.
and yes i did catch myself sometimes playing eight deck games when i thought they were six deck and i was using the ace/ten front count in those early times so it did matter if one knew how many decks were in play. it was after returning to the casino months later and attempting to use the hi/lo count there that i became aware of how the tables might infact be six or eight deck tables. to be honest back when i was using the ace/ten front count i had just naively assumed the tables were all six deck. then months later when i returned to the casino and had honed my skill for hi/lo i did infact realize what the real situation was. i don't really blame the casino for my mistake but i wanted to make the point how tricky the casino's can be set up especially for the novice player.

Sometimes players blame standard deviation for their losses, how often do you think it might be sub standard play? I say this only because a friend of mine teaches blackjack seminars and he can't believe how much people overestimate there counting skills. It might not be the case here, but sometimes its easy to overlook some things that are right in front of us.

yes indeed. i think the example that i put forth shows very well how this can be the case.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[ihate17]

Hosts

Ortango

Very often a host does not really know what has happened in the pit. A smart casino will make a public specticle about tossing someone who fights or make sure a thief is arrested and the players know what happened. This discourages that kind of activity. That same casino might back a player off of blackjack very quietly and nicely. I have been approached away from the tables by a casino table game manager and complimented on my play, offered dinner and told I was welcome to use all their facilities, except no more blackjack. So, no other players knew, my host did not know and even dealers who might spread the news, do not know. Compare that to the sweat shop style of a suit and a goon or two coming up behind you at the table, taking your bet out of the circle and then telling you that you can no longer play. In this situation, several losing players might be shocked and many people will be asking these people and the dealer about what happened.
So, what your host said might be very true, that she has never seen this happen, but that does not mean that it does not happen.

ihate17

 

[ortango]

Is this what they call positive flux?

I agree that the host is probably misinformed, and believes either what she was told or what she thinks the casino wants her to think.

Anyway, I hope my lack of belief in counting did not contribute to anyone giving it up. I'm pretty sure my run has not been simply "luck" during the last three weeks.

14 trips in 23 days:
2 loss trips, 12 win trips
Approx 65 hours of play
Winnings: $29,000
Cash Comps: $2400
Profit per hour: $483

:cow:

 

[sagefr0g]

I agree that the host is probably misinformed, and believes either what she was told or what she thinks the casino wants her to think.

Anyway, I hope my lack of belief in counting did not contribute to anyone giving it up. I'm pretty sure my run has not been simply "luck" during the last three weeks.

14 trips in 23 days:
2 loss trips, 12 win trips
Approx 65 hours of play
Winnings: $29,000
Cash Comps: $2400
Profit per hour: $483

:cow:

Ort it does appear to be positive flux unless your winrate is close to $483/hour.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[Canceler]

Of course not!

I'm pretty sure my run has not been simply "luck" during the last three weeks.

Everyone knows that when you lose it's bad luck, and when you win it's because of brilliant play!

 

[ortango]

Ort it does appear to be positive flux unless your winrate is close to $483/hour.

Yes, that is the only logical explanation.

Everyone knows that when you lose it's bad luck, and when you win it's because of brilliant play!

And yet Canceler's point is undisputable! :laugh:

 

[ihate17]

enjoy it while it lasts

Ortango:

I do not know what your average bet is but am guessing that you are enjoying a period of positive flux of a few standard deviations, just as you previously had a period of negative flux. Now if you add the losing the winning periods together (not a statistically sound example) you might have a number resembling your true win rate or close to it. Of course if you are playing high stakes your current rate may be normal.

ihate17

 

[ortango]

The $29,000 represents my true earnings, as I went south $6000 out of $10,000 in the beginning and now am at $39,000. But you are right, if I include the first 1 1/2 months where I lost that $6000, the hourly earning is much less. Then again I played mostly red chip in the first month to build my skills. But that also means my average earnings for the last 65 hours is more than $483 it would be $575.

 

[ortango]

Whoo Hoo! Got my butt kicked.

The casino finally brought me back to reality with a 90 unit loss this morning. ($4500) I can finally come back down to earth and realize... hey, I can lose! 3 very hot shoes during the 6 hours and I lost on all three of em.. bad! The first was 5 minutes after I walked in the casino, and wonged in on a crazy count shoe. I lost 8 huge bets and pushed two! During the rest of the day, the dealer had blackjack 4 times during my rare max bets! (2x$400) but fortunately I successfully insuranced 3 of them (of course I did they were crazy counts). Didn't matter though, I lost 9 out of 10 of my big bets. I was lucky to even last that long because I was winning off the not so great shoes! It was just one of those days, but now I can can think, hey, I'm not in a candy store, so that's probably a good thing.

Anyways fellas , thanks for your advice about "enjoying it while it lasts", but fortunately the gambling gods will not remember this round, just as they don't remember my win trips.

:cow:

 

[sagefr0g]

The casino finally brought me back to reality with a 90 unit loss this morning. ($4500) I can finally come back down to earth and realize... hey, I can lose! ...................................................................... It was just one of those days, but now I can can think, hey, I'm not in a candy store, so that's probably a good thing.

Anyways fellas , thanks for your advice about "enjoying it while it lasts", but fortunately the gambling gods will not remember this round, just as they don't remember my win trips.

:cow:

Ort i've been following your adventures with great interest. thank you for sharing it all.
what i'm gonna say i don't think has much to do with advantage play. it is an 'old saw' from the world outside of all that. it came to mind upon reading your last post.
"wisdom is the better part of valor"
to wit i (and i'm sure all the other members of this forum) am very happy for you that you have gleaned the benfit of some most fortuitous positive fluctuation. what a gift! preserve it, protect it and it will preserve and protect you.
you now have a great 'leg up' a hedge so to speak. if you bask in that security you can still make a heap more Ort. just some thoughts my friend.

best regards,
mr fr0g