8 Decks: Stand on 12 vs. 12?

[TimeKeeper]

Has anyone heard of this? To stand on 12 vs. 12 in an 8 deck shoe? I just talked to a family friend and he said that this is a brand new thing that was recently discovered in the past 90 days. It only applies to 8 decks. He said a million hands went through a simulation in some IBM lab or something. He said it's beneficial to you to stand on 12 vs. 12 in 8 decks. I tried searching for a story on google but could not find it.

 

[KenSmith]

I assume you mean 12v2, and no, you should still be hitting it.

 

[TimeKeeper]

I assume you mean 12v2, and no, you should still be hitting it.

No, he said 12 vs. 12. He said it's brand new. I know, I had to ask him twice to make sure. I don't know what his source was since he doesn't even go on the internet.

 

[FrankieT]

tell your friend to stop hitting the crack pipe, there is no 12 card!!!

 

[Brutus]

double exposure, maybe?
tell your friend to stick to the wheel of fortune slot machine, its the one with the wheel at the top that spins round and round.

 

[Mikeaber]

No, he said 12 vs. 12. He said it's brand new. I know, I had to ask him twice to make sure. I don't know what his source was since he doesn't even go on the internet.

I'm quite sure that the mention of a 12 was that if the dealer is showing a 2, that he has a 10 underneath. If you knew that for a fact (that his total was 12), you wouldn't be hitting a 12 against the 2. Well, not unless the count was WAY negative!

But like you, that "new rule" on 8-deck games is one that I've not heard before.

 

[TimeKeeper]

Maybe he meant 12 vs. 2. Yeah, that doesn't make sense does it since the dealer can't have a 12. So let's leave it as 12 vs. 2. I'll have to ask him again.

 

[KenSmith]

Did this conversation with your friend happen to occur on April 1st?

 

[neemo6]

Is he somehow seeing the hole card and playing like a hole-carder does?

 

[TimeKeeper]

Did this conversation with your friend happen to occur on April 1st?

No, lol! It was today. Man, this has got to be the dumbest thread ever posted in this forum and it was created by me!

He was talking about Craps at the same time too. I've never played craps, but is it possible to stand 12 vs. 12 in craps?

I really feel bad for the way this thread turned out, because he was seriously trying to give me good advice. He is the only reason I am playing blackjack today. He won $53k in 2004 playing it at Foxwoods.

All I can say is, I misintrepreted something somewhere in the conversation.

 

[Thunder]

I see a lot of people standing on 12's vs dealer 12's but if you ask me it's stupid because there are only 4 cards which u can bust on vs 9 cards that you can safely hit with. Only if the count was super positive, would I stand on that.

 

[TimeKeeper]

I see a lot of people standing on 12's vs dealer 12's but if you ask me it's stupid because there are only 4 cards which u can bust on vs 9 cards that you can safely hit with. Only if the count was super positive, would I stand on that.

But the reason this topic doesn't make any sense is because how can you possibly stand on 12 vs 12? You'd have to know what his hole card was. And no, we're not talking about Double Exposure.

 

[zengrifter]

Has anyone heard of this? To stand on 12 vs. 12 in an 8 deck shoe? I just talked to a family friend and he said that this is a brand new thing that was recently discovered in the past 90 days. It only applies to 8 decks. He said a million hands went through a simulation in some IBM lab or something. He said it's beneficial to you to stand on 12 vs. 12 in 8 decks. I tried searching for a story on google but could not find it.

BULLSH*T! zg

 

[Mikeaber]

I see a lot of people standing on 12's vs dealer 12's but if you ask me it's stupid because there are only 4 cards which u can bust on vs 9 cards that you can safely hit with. Only if the count was super positive, would I stand on that.

It's not 4 that can bust you Thunder...it's 16 in a full single deck. But you have one of them so heads up, I guess you'd say 15 out of a possible 49 since there are two deuces in play that would bust you.....but you don't know what the dealer has.

I don't think there is any way not hitting a 12 against a 2 could be valid though unless you had a high count.

 

[TimeKeeper]

ATTENTION: TOPIC UPDATE

I just got off the phone with our friend here. I asked him if I wrote it down correctly and he said "yes." But he apologized for the wording he used. He meant "deuce", a 2. So yeah, Ken, that's what he meant. He said 12 because of the high probability of the dealer hitting and recieving a 10.

He said that it's a 9.18% edge against you if you hit on 12/13 vs. 2 on 8 decks. Yes, you read that correctly. He's saying to stand on both 12 and 13 vs. 2.

 

[zengrifter]

ATTENTION: TOPIC UPDATE

I just got off the phone with our friend here. I asked him if I wrote it down correctly and he said "yes." But he apologized for the wording he used. He meant "deuce", a 2. So yeah, Ken, that's what he meant. He said 12 because of the high probability of the dealer hitting and recieving a 10.

He said that it's a 9.18% edge against you if you hit on 12/13 vs. 2 on 8 decks. Yes, you read that correctly. He's saying to stand on both 12 and 13 vs. 2.

So, that settles that! zg

 

[countryboy]

TimeKeeper, I have read your posts regarding your friend who won $53 last year without counting and only using Basic Strategy. I suppose that can be done with nothing other than dumb luck, but now I wonder if you friend really understands BS or probability for that matter. For him to say that he is going to consider a dealers 2 a 12, because of the high probability of the down card being a 10 concerns me a little. The probabiliy of that down card being a 10 is only about 31% not what I would consider a real high probabiliy. I guess if I were you I would take your friends advice with a grain of salt. If he truly did win $53 last year with only BS and not even a thorough understanding of it, I'm afraid he had a definite awakening coming in his not too distant future.

 

[KenSmith]

He said that it's a 9.18% edge against you if you hit on 12/13 vs. 2 on 8 decks.

Very precise number that 9.18%. Too bad it's nowhere close to accurate! :laugh:

When you stand with T2 vs 2 in an 8 deck S17 game, your expectation is to lose 0.295 of your bet. By hitting it once instead, you improve that to a loss of 0.252 of your bet.

 

[TimeKeeper]

TimeKeeper, I have read your posts regarding your friend who won $53 last year without counting and only using Basic Strategy. I suppose that can be done with nothing other than dumb luck, but now I wonder if you friend really understands BS or probability for that matter. For him to say that he is going to consider a dealers 2 a 12, because of the high probability of the down card being a 10 concerns me a little. The probabiliy of that down card being a 10 is only about 31% not what I would consider a real high probabiliy. I guess if I were you I would take your friends advice with a grain of salt. If he truly did win $53 last year with only BS and not even a thorough understanding of it, I'm afraid he had a definite awakening coming in his not too distant future.

I suppose you are referring to the very first post and topic I ever made here at BJI. I never said that he didn't count. At the time, I didn't know what he did. But he does count, I'm not sure what system he uses... but I know it's a true count one.

Yes, I know the move is a strange one. And I told him that. He does understand BS and is a very good blackjack/craps player. I understand some of you are going to be skeptical about this person you've never met. But trust me, he is real and he did win that money in 2004. I know this for a fact. As far as the new move goes, he may very well be wrong about it. But that doesn't mean he doesn't know how to count or use BS. It is a new move he is trying based on an article he read.

 

[countryboy]

I apologize, I thought you may be getting bad advice from someone trying to convince you that it is possible to consistently win at BJ without counting. I have noticed from your posts that you are trying to get a very good handle on the game before you start playing. Just didn't want you to go out there with incorrect info. It's a tough enough game to win even with the right information.