A. C. July Revenue Report

ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
Sharky said:
as someone who only plays BJ and having never checked out casino financials, i find it SHOCKING that a casino can lose -3% on $17MM in a 'stacked' game with all the ploppies at the casinos...maybe i am missing out on something w/ craps?
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It's a streaky game. Hot shooters/tables often attract a lot of bet pressure, and a 1 hour period can entail a fill or two when it's really chugging.

Case in point, played a green-chip table the last Sun of July where 3 guys cleaned house in about 45 minutes ($50-60K cashouts on $10K buy-in), betting black to pumpkin. Sure this was a small cross section, but saw 2 out of 3 of those same guys the next morning coloring up with even more (assuming same buy-in). Bought in and struck up a convo with the dealers...they said those guys had an even bigger session before breakfast.

Big swing - I'm sure it didn't help the bottom line.
 
Sharky

Sharky

Well-Known Member
ChefJJ said:
It's a streaky game. Hot shooters/tables often attract a lot of bet pressure, and a 1 hour period can entail a fill or two when it's really chugging.

Case in point, played a green-chip table the last Sun of July where 3 guys cleaned house in about 45 minutes ($50-60K cashouts on $10K buy-in), betting black to pumpkin. Sure this was a small cross section, but saw 2 out of 3 of those same guys the next morning coloring up with even more (assuming same buy-in). Bought in and struck up a convo with the dealers...they said those guys had an even bigger session before breakfast.

Big swing - I'm sure it didn't help the bottom line.
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yes, but is there ever an advantage mathematically? i just assumed that the odds were always against you and it is a luck (or streaky) GAMBLE...a la roulette

Sharky

ps: many times i have left a BJ table w/ 5-6x buy-in in short order
 
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pit15

Well-Known Member
while unlikely, there could be some kind of cheating at play.. eg, loaded dice.

It's difficult to sneak loaded dice into a casino table, but it's far from impossible.

And what Chef is saying is when a shooter does run "hot" it causes a high variance situation.. eg, people crowding the table to all put huge bets on the pass line.

The odds don't change, but the $ amount of potential variance sure does. People betting orange on the pass line then backing it up with 5X odds can cause millions in losses very quickly.
 
Friendo

Friendo

Well-Known Member
What bets do most craps players take?

I assume that the most popular bets at craps are the pass and odds.

House edge is slim for this combination. Do most craps players put their bets on these?
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
Sharky,

Do yourself a favor and learn that "streakiness" in games is no more than casino mythology.
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It's ChefJJ who introduced this thought, not Sharky. I'd like to hear what ChefJJ has to say about streaks at craps. I think what he meant was that, like blackjack, sometimes the players have a streak of good luck, not that they can predict or somehow manage those streaks. In this light, the 487-unit shoe that KJ had could be considered a streak, but not in the sense that KJ could predict it was coming or take advantage of its arrival. It just happens.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
It is virtually impossible to "switch" dice as the box man is constantly
checking the dice for the serial number of the dice that are officially in use.

In case you are not aware of it, just watch the stickman place the dice in front of
the boxman and flip the dice over to reveal the serial number.

This is done on almost every roll if there is serious money being bet,
any cause for suspicion, and every time the dice leave the table.
 
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pit15

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
It is virtually impossible to "switch" dice as the box man is constantly
checking the dice for the serial number of the dice that are officially in use.

In case you are not aware of it, just watch the stickman place the dice in front of
the boxman and flip the dice over to reveal the serial number.

This is done on almost every roll if there is serious money being bet,
any cause for suspicion, and every time the dice leave the table.
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Like I said, it's hard but not impossible. Who says the boxman isn't in on it? A lot of casino cheating scams involve insider(s)
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
It's ChefJJ who introduced this thought, not Sharky. I'd like to hear what ChefJJ has to say about streaks at craps.
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pit15 hit it right on the head.

By streaky, I mean there are very long periods of "hot" and "cold". There's no voodoo to that concept, just a reflection of mathematical variance. Anybody who's spend any good amount of time around the dice game has seen a 45-minute roll where anybody who is paying attention can pull down large amounts of money. And, conversely, we've seen 30-minute periods where it seems like every third roll is a 7.

What does this mean for a casino's bottom line? Take a very hot steak at a table where things are playing out very well for a 2-hour period (the longest I've ever experienced was a pure 6-hour positive variance, which was truly amazing). And imagine that the table is a $25 minimum with a $5000 maximum...per bet, of course. You can see how big money players can get quite a bit of cash on the layout through an array of wagers.

When bets are paying repeatedly for close to an hour without much in the way of losses, it's clear that the combination of big $ + good numbers coming out = a hit for the house. Sure, some players will stay and let their winnings dwindle, but we've all seen plenty get out with some dough. And my personal experience a couple weeks back was seeing a couple guys get out with 6 figures in cash. Did they lose some? Sure I bet they did, but you get high rollers on a lucky streak, and that could account for part of a short term blip on the monthly top or bottom line.



And, of course, there is no way to gain an advantage in a craps game.
 
Gamblor

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
Just for the fun of it, please name a game that is less, [or more], "streaky" than craps.
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Pai Gow Poker always seemed less streaky than just about any game, with its huge number of ties and glacial pace.

Supposedly a good way to get comps is to just play big on Pai Gow. Whats its average hands per hour at a full table, 30? And lets say approx. 16 of them isn't a tie?
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
Pai Gow Poker cannot be any more, or any less, "streaky" than craps.

It is almost like flipping a coin -- or like a pass-line bet at a Craps Table.

You will win almost 50% of the hands, if you play correctly.

The 5% commissions will hurt you plenty.
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
Perhaps the notion of "streakiness" is moot when compared over all games, but it is a qualitative way to describe some observations with probabilistic outcomes. Like Aslan said, knowing when a streak will begin or end is not the point of this.

This here is a ramble...

FLASH, you say that the Pass Line is essentially a coin flip bet. I'd agree with that in the big picture. My guess as to what makes the game streakier is the fact that most of the wagers offered do not pay even money.

What I will posit is the notion that multiplier payouts, Pass Line-multiplied level Odds bets, and the ability to wager on many bets at a high $ (as opposing to spreading to a couple BJ hands) can take a positive variance streak and amplify it to the moon. So the gist could be that craps is not necessarily a streakier game in the mindset of more winning wagers vs. losers, but more "damage" could be done to the bottom line because more money can make it on the dice table during said streak.

If you're trying to go with apples-to-apples, take a $25-5000 craps table with a full 12 people vs. a full $25-5000 BJ table. A very hot streak hits both so there are an hour-long shooter and 4 scorching hot shoes, respectively. The streak is arguably comparable, but is the effect on the casino's drop comparable? I dunno.

What makes it all so conceptual is that the argument is conditional I suppose...rarely are things apple-to-apple in the casino world in a short period of a month in one casino. If it makes sense, great. If it doesn't, I can take the claims that I'm a moron. :grin: Just thinking out loud I suppose. There are anomalies in the AC revenue report, so folks are throwing out possibilities to interpret it.

Hell, it's all a crapshoot when you boil it down :joker:
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
Kudos to ChefJJ.

Yes the fact that a great deal of money is at risk IF the players are smart enough
to put the bulk of their cash on the odds, would create the illusion of a "streak".

I never shoot craps unless I am given, (at minimum), 10 to 1 Odds.

No matter. Rarely do I see any patron betting intelligently.

Noteworthy is the historic event at the Borgata where the old lady held the dice for 155 rolls before "Seven out" was called.

The house could have lost millions in that time. They should have. They didn't.
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
Kudos to ChefJJ.

Noteworthy is the historic event at the Borgata where the old lady held the dice for 155 rolls before "Seven out" was called.

The house could have lost millions in that time. They should have. They didn't.
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Right on, FLASH. You've cited a prime real-life example where the house could have been hit very hard. Actually, the COULD ought to be SHOULD because that was the ultimate hot streak recorded to date.

So this goes to show that theory is one thing, but reality sure is another. Regardless, AC sure has been getting hit by some big losses this year...talk about insult to injury. :flame:
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
ChefJJ said:
Right on, FLASH. You've cited a prime real-life example where the house could have been hit very hard. Actually, the COULD ought to be SHOULD because that was the ultimate hot streak recorded to date.

So this goes to show that theory is one thing, but reality sure is another. Regardless, AC sure has been getting hit by some big losses this year...talk about insult to injury. :flame:
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Right, It "seems" like a lot of streaks are going against the casinos. But then, I'm not so sure. When did a casino ever advertise their winning streaks?! I think it would be safe to say, "Never!"
 
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