A Cautionary Tale

[adventureboy]

As many of you know, I have been playing A LOT of blackjack over the last 4 years, hoping that when I retire I could use blackjack to supplement my income for the "extras" that would make retirment a lot of fun. At this point, I think I must conclude that it is just not going to work for me. To be honest, VARIANCE is just too ugly for me. I just came home from a 4 day session... and got my a$$ kicked! I will not bore you with the all details of my sob story, but here are a few low lights:

Day 1) Played a nice 6 deck shoe game with pen. at 1 1/2 decks. Spread from $10 to $300. Lost big bet after big bet (for 5 hours). Total loss, just over 5k. I spent time that night evaluating my play... and there was nothing wrong with it. Just short term variance going against me.

Day 2) Undaunted and not worried about the short run, I continued the next day. Agian, loss after loss. Had the worst losing "streak" of my life. I lost 24 hands in a row, won a blackjack ($10 min bet), and then lost 19 in a row. Tried to stay patient and calm, but still got my butt kicked over 6 hours of play to the tune of 7K.

Day 3) Swithced to double deck game....about 70% pen. Count skyrocketed on the first deck with NO tens or aces coming out in the first 4 rounds. Was playing $25-$300. Lost my first 13 hands in a row. Count got real good quite often, and I lost every bet above $150. Every one for the entire day, and there were many (played 6 hours). Lost another 7k.

Day 4) Will the bad vairance end? No. Played double deck again. Got my butt kicked again. Intrestingly, on this day I played with a young lady who obviously did not know how to play. She made just about every bad move in the book. Doubled on 7 vs 10, doubled 14 vs A... I could go on and on. She could not lose. She would win 7 or 8 in a row, lose one, and then go on aother winning streak. She made 16k playing about as bad as you can play. I was really concentrating, making sure I did not make mistakes, and got my clock cleaned for 5 hours straight. Lost 6k.

I lost just over 25k for the 4 days. My count was solid and my index plays were correct. Varience showed her brutal, ugly behind to me....and there was absolutley nothing I could do about it. I still have another 25k in my BJ bankroll.... but I guess it's time to find a 2.5% cd and park it. The truth is, although unlikley, it is possible I could lose another 25k next week if I played again. For the very well financed with a LOT of time to commit, the bad variance could be worked through. But for me, with all the time I have spent, all the trips I have made, to lose half my bankroll in this manner is just to frustrating.

Kind Regards and best wishes to all!

 

[Finn Dog]

Sorry to hear about your negative variance Adventureboy. That is most unfortunate when a new bankroll goes South instead of North (or at least East-West).

It really is only gambling in the short term. Personally, I think that in order for the long term to have a chance to be realized, one's bankroll must be so large (and bets so small relative to the BR), that negative variance like what you went through doesn't even make the player blink: namely, 1% ROR--otherwise the human emotional response will undoubtedly enter into the equation--and potentially prematurely end one's playing career. Sure, the ROR can be higher, but it truly must be disposable assests that doesn't even make one blink--1% is my personal comfort level--but still I treat it like a hobby.

You've probably seen this, but perhaps this thread will answer some questions:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=16427

Regards,

FD

 

[creeping panther]

Adventure

Thank you for telling us your story, I appreciate the honesty.

Yes, I think it better that you do hang it up, at least for now. Most are far better of trading stocks than attempting to make money from counting alone.

I also play much DD and 6d. I need to have fine pen and fine rules and even then it is a tough game. LS is extremely important to me as well as heavy indice playing, S-17, and RSA.

Many players have come and gone just as you may, no shame in it, I just feel bad for them that they may have been duped by the snake oil salesman who claim any game can be beaten if you just use the right approach,,,that is BS in my opinion.

In your case you have lost $25K in a valiant effort and now your other $25k will be put in a CD at 2.5% Now that will earn you in a year a taxable $750 if at 3%. Would you have been happy if in one of your sessions you had won $750??? The full return on $25,000 at 3% in a year and non-taxable?

We should look at our winning in a different way,, and the goals we set,, and forget about the big scores and all that greed involved and be happy with decent returns on sessions buy in which can easily be 25%.

We need to only play fine games and think hard before we drink the kool aide scammers and liares toss about on these web sites day in and day out. If we are to play we need to hone our skillz to a very high level and to develope a 6th sense to lurking danger and then to act on that 6th sense.

I am very sorry for you, 50% loss in BR is devastating in many ways.

Do not feel bad however, the great Math Proff also had the idea that you had but decided even with his phenominal skillz he was better off staying working than to early retire in his 50's and to then take up BJ as a full time endeavor to supplement his retirement income.

CP

 

[Sonny]

My count was solid and my index plays were correct. Varience showed her brutal, ugly behind to me....and there was absolutley nothing I could do about it...But for me, with all the time I have spent, all the trips I have made, to lose half my bankroll in this manner is just to frustrating.

I can imagine how frustrating that must be, but there is always a silver lining. Just imagine how much more you would have lost if you were following your "mean regression" strategy.

"When the count is in my favor and I am well below my win expection, I ramp more aggresively. In contrast, when I am well above my win expectation and the count goes high... I will be a little more conservative."

You would have been betting even more aggressively and still losing. You would have been putting more money at risk without any additional advantage. This is a perfect example of how overbetting can bankrupt a player even though he is playing with an advantage. Be thankful that you still have half of your bankroll after a disastrous trip like that. But instead of putting that money in a 2.5% APY CD, why not earn 1.5% of that every few hours? You'll recoup your money much faster, and maybe even earn compounded returns.

-Sonny-

 

[adventureboy]

I appreciate everyone's thoughts. Sonny, I did some mean regression during the first 2 hours when it was called for @ TC +4 or better. It became very evident, very early, that I could mean regress, count cards, play basic strategy---- it did not matter. Hell, I even caught some hole cards occasionally on the DD games and could not win those hands. When you have 19 and the dealer has 20 there is not much you can do. I always knew it was POSSIBLE to have an extended period of negative variance... I guess I just thought it would not happen to me. I thought wrong. Now that I have faced it myself, it has created a huge doubt in my mind. Knowing that I COULD play a very strong game and still drop 50k in 2 weeks is unsettling. I mean, I am playing to make money.....not for fun. I know I could play for years and probably never run into such a horrible week again..... but 50k is a good chunck of change to me, so finally fully realizing just how bad a bad streak can be has me questioning if BJ is really a viable long term alternative...even if only for "extra" income.

 

[Tarzan]

Scary losses

Scary losses happen. Bankrolls can halve out easily at points along the way. Your actual profits can only be realized over years of play and the only thing that keeps you in the game is having enough money backing you up to ride out those horrid losses that can occur along the way. I have talked about this before in depth, it's nothing new and nothing that isn't talked about by many blackjack authors.

Let's not leave out the part about what CreepingPanther says about quality of games. This is important and these days you have to shop around for a game even worth playing! Blackjack is all based on such slim percentages that a fraction of a percentage point of additional HA means a lot and can mean the difference of whether you should be playing that particular game or not.

 

[adventureboy]

Scary losses happen. Bankrolls can halve out easily at points along the way. Your actual profits can only be realized over years of play and the only thing that keeps you in the game is having enough money backing you up to ride out those horrid losses that can occur along the way. I have talked about this before in depth, it's nothing new and nothing that isn't talked about by many blackjack authors.

Let's not leave out the part about what CreepingPanther says about quality of games. This is important and these days you have to shop around for a game even worth playing! Blackjack is all based on such slim percentages that a fraction of a percentage point of additional HA means a lot and can mean the difference of whether you should be playing that particular game or not.

Thanks, Tarzan. Yes, there is nothing new under the sun. I knew such a thing could happen. I just discounted the fact that it could happen to me. As I look back over my years of blackjack and counting... I just have to question whether, for me, it is worth it. My total out of pockect cash to my bankroll over the last 4 years has been 17k, so in that sense I am still "ahead". But when I factor in all the trips, all the hours, all the BS with the dealers and ploppies, I have an overwhelming sense of frustration. Yes, I was comped to a lot of free rooms and meals. But in my mind, this was just cutting down on my overhead costs. Sure, I had some fun along the way. However, in the end, I just don't see BJ as a viable way generate extra income over a 10 yr time horizion. At least the kind of income I am trying to attain. Some have stated that my bankroll was not big enough (50k with a $300 top bet). I can agree with that. But if I have to put together 150k in bankroll to make $25-$50 per hour, that is just not worth it to me. I can continue to teach, risk free, and make $40 per hour. Boring as hell and not very "adventureous", but safe.

 

[Machinist]

Very scary

Sorry to hear about your bad fluxuation man... Nice to hear brutal honesty tho...
My suggestion.... Take a break..... relax....regroup..... You sound like you know exactly what you are doing with BJ.... I'd suggest adding some "other" tecniques to your Play, as was pointed out by CP....
IMHO you need a little bit bigger edge than what you have been playing with....It is out there ... you have to look for it ....but it is out there...
I'd hate to see a person with your skills just hang it up.... You had the balls to keep firing for 4 days!!!! I admire that!!! Guts!!!
Might i suggest Beyond Counting.... Maybe you have it already? If not spend the money.
Our last guest speaker KIm Lee pointed out exactly what is going on out in the BJ world to get the edge you really need to make the money you are looking for!
Don't give up the fight with these stinking casinos....Dig deep, find what i am talking about and you will crush em like the cockroaches they are!!!


Machinist

 

[aslan]

Faced with the same situation, one man will say, "That's all for me," and quit forever; another man will say, "Scientifically, I'm on solid ground, and I still have plenty of bankroll; therefore, I will ride this out, because the numbers are on my side." Happily, the latter player may double his original money, but sadly, the selfsame strategy may leave him broke and despondent, wishing he had done as the former player and quit forever. There is no answer to this quandary.

If I can afford it, I personally would rather go down in flames, fighting to win with my best game. I never feel bad deep down when I do what I consider the "right" thing. If I don't follow up on my core beliefs, then I do feel bad, and the extra $25K in the bank doesn't change that gnawing feeling that I wimped out. I'd say it's a matter of personal values and core beliefs.

 

[caramel6]

adventureboy and casinoblackjack

Faced with the same situation, one man will say, "That's all for me," and quit forever; another man will say, "Scientifically, I'm on solid ground, and I still have plenty of bankroll; therefore, I will ride this out, because the numbers are on my side." Happily, the latter player may double his original money, but sadly, the selfsame strategy may leave him broke and despondent, wishing he had done as the former player and quit forever. There is no answer to this quandary.

If I can afford it, I personally would rather go down in flames, fighting to win with my best game. I never feel bad deep down when I do what I consider the "right" thing. If I don't follow up on my core beliefs, then I do feel bad, and the extra $25K in the bank doesn't change that gnawing feeling that I wimped out. I'd say it's a matter of personal values and core beliefs.

What a difference in between 2 stories!

One guy keeps winning 100 per day since January, not counting, just BS.Sometimes tough, but not losing

Another one counting all the way through, varies his bets and losing 25000.

If assume that both stories are trustworthy (I personally have no doubts about it), contrast is ENORMOUS!

I do not give any personal opinions, just observing.I am counter myself, all though not so so knowledgable and experienced as a best brains here.So I value every advice given.

 

[aslan]

What a difference in between 2 stories!

One guy keeps winning 100 per day since January, not counting, just BS.Sometimes tough, but not losing

Another one counting all the way through, varies his bets and losing 25000.

If assume that both stories are trustworthy (I personally have no doubts about it), contrast is ENORMOUS!

I do not give any personal opinions, just observing.I am counter myself, all though not so so knowledgeable and experienced as a best brains here.So I value every advice given.

In the sense that counting also entails betting high multiples of minimum bet, it is not unusual to "sometimes" see large losses. OTOH, because BS envisions flat betting throughout, the risk of large losses are minimized, and because the house edge is so slim (0.5%~), it is not unusual to "sometimes" see long strings of small wins. The key word is "sometimes." Also, realize that no one here would be reporting small losses or short strings of wins as they are not newsworthy events. The average counter wins most of his sessions, and the average BS player loses most of his sessions. This is anecdotal according to my own experience.

 

[sagefr0g]

for a 'typical' six deck game, day 1 & day 2 represents around five standard deviations to the bad!
there should be a zero probability of that happening.
heck if you had a seven grand trip roll twelve hours of play should have had a ror < 0.1%
expectation should of been around $300.


well what ever sorry to hear of anyone experiencing such miserable luck.

thanks for telling it like it was.

 

[Sonny]

Some have stated that my bankroll was not big enough (50k with a $300 top bet). I can agree with that. But if I have to put together 150k in bankroll to make $25-$50 per hour, that is just not worth it to me.

Don’t limit yourself to those two options. There are many ways to make this work for you.

-Get a bigger bankroll and play with the same advantage and variance.
-Use your current bankroll and play with the same advantage but lower variance.
-Use your current bankroll and play with a bigger advantage and the same variance.
-Use your current bankroll and play with a bigger advantage and somewhat higher variance.
-Use your current bankroll and play with a bigger advantage and lower variance.

The first option is the one that most card counters consider, but it is also the worst choice. The other options are the ones that people have been suggesting to you. Find better games, use a stronger strategy and/or limit your exposure to risk. There are numerous ways to do all of those things. Obviously your current strategy is insufficient to achieve your desired goal. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with giving up if you think that it is not something that you will enjoy or that it is not worth your time. That’s fine. Just be aware that you have only experimented with a tiny area of what exists. There are literally dozens of ways to improve your situation. Unless you really don’t like being a card player then you should at least investigate the other options before you make a final judgment.

However, in the end, I just don't see BJ as a viable way generate extra income over a 10 yr time horizion. At least the kind of income I am trying to attain.

That’s up to you. If you don’t like playing BJ or you don’t want to keep doing it, that is completely understandable. But there’s no reason that a strong player who puts in the time can’t overcome the variance at least once a year, and several times a year is possible if you know where the great games are. Take a break and do some more research, but don’t give up just yet.

-Sonny-

 

[aslan]

for a 'typical' six deck game, day 1 & day 2 represents around five standard deviations to the bad!
there should be a zero probability of that happening.
heck if you had a seven grand trip roll twelve hours of play should have had a ror < 0.1%
expectation should of been around $300.


well what ever sorry to hear of anyone experiencing such miserable luck.

thanks for telling it like it was.

Keep in mind that he was super-aggressively spreading 30 times min bet plus in the first two hours practicing mean regression, which means an even more aggressive bet spread if I understand what he is saying. But , cheez! What miserable luck!

 

[aslan]

Don’t limit yourself to those two options. There are many ways to make this work for you.

-Get a bigger bankroll and play with the same advantage and variance.
-Use your current bankroll and play with the same advantage but lower variance.
-Use your current bankroll and play with a bigger advantage and the same variance.
-Use your current bankroll and play with a bigger advantage and somewhat higher variance.
-Use your current bankroll and play with a bigger advantage and lower variance.

The first option is the one that most card counters consider, but it is also the worst choice. The other options are the ones that people have been suggesting to you. Find better games, use a stronger strategy and/or limit your exposure to risk. There are numerous ways to do all of those things. Obviously your current strategy is insufficient to achieve your desired goal. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with giving up if you think that it is not something that you will enjoy or that it is not worth your time. That’s fine. Just be aware that you have only experimented with a tiny area of what exists. There are literally dozens of ways to improve your situation. Unless you really don’t like being a card player then you should at least investigate the other options before you make a final judgment.



That’s up to you. If you don’t like playing BJ or you don’t want to keep doing it, that is completely understandable. But there’s no reason that a strong player who puts in the time can’t overcome the variance at least once a year, and several times a year is possible if you know where the great games are. Take a break and do some more research, but don’t give up just yet.

-Sonny-

You're right about doing some more research. I suppose there was a day when little or no research was necessary, but in today's vastly more educated blackjack world, good games do not grow on trees. Thank God for continuing competition in the gambling world with more and more states joining the fray and trying to dissuade players from the often longer trips to the big three (LV, Reno & AC). With equal or slightly better games, the closer stores have my undivided attention. Remind me to compliment the local Suits on their fairer and more attractive rules for Ploppies like myself, and especially how much I enjoy their fun slots (*TIC*).

 

[caramel6]

In the sense that counting also entails betting high multiples of minimum bet, it is not unusual to "sometimes" see large losses. OTOH, because BS envisions flat betting throughout, the risk of large losses are minimized, and because the house edge is so slim (0.5%~), it is not unusual to "sometimes" see long strings of small wins. The key word is "sometimes." Also, realize that no one here would be reporting small losses or short strings of wins as they are not newsworthy events. The average counter wins most of his sessions, and the average BS player loses most of his sessions. This is anecdotal according to my own experience.

however,there is someone who won 12000 not counting and someone who lost 25000 counting. Of course, Aslan, counting wins,

But would you agree that it there is less risk for a guy who won 12000 TO LOSE WHAT HE WON ALREADY(if he plays same as he played before) THAN FOR A GUY WHO ALREADY LOST 25000 (if he played , as he played before).

Negative variance could strike again, as we know.and positive variance could continue.

So one of them might add some money to his win, risking not much due to a flat betting (if he makes stop loss, even better), and another one would blow his bankroll. I am not saying it will happen imminently, but it could happen.

 

[aslan]

however,there is someone who won 12000 not counting and someone who lost 25000 counting. Of course, Aslan, counting wins,

But would you agree that it there is less risk for a guy who won 12000 TO LOSE WHAT HE WON ALREADY(if he plays same as he played before) THAN FOR A GUY WHO ALREADY LOST 25000 (if he played , as he played before).

Negative variance could strike again, as we know.and positive variance could continue.

So one of them might add some money to his win, risking not much due to a flat betting (if he makes stop loss, even better), and another one would blow his bankroll. I am not saying it will happen imminently, but it could happen.

I agree, in the short run.

 

[caramel6]

I agree, in the short run.

also why not for a first one make things easier, having 12000 in winnings, just either make his daily winnings limit higher (increasing size of a flat bet) or easier , betting 50 insetad of 25 and stopping at the same 100 level? Then he would require only two wins over the house (sorry for my English).

Another important issue:

It states that successful counter win in most of his sessions and BS non-counter lose most of his sessions.

What is a definition of the session?? When it should stop? Why not to end a session when winning certain amounts of units from the casino?

 

[blackjack avenger]

Welcome Mats Out!

This is why casinos should welcome counters with open arms, because most are pseudo counters who can't win.:joker::whip:

 

[caramel6]

I agree, in the short run.

also . exept of math there are other issues: 25000 is quite a bit of money. And 50000 twice more!

Why not temporarily to adopt an attitude of winning some small money daily (may be in a few sessions per day which should last till certain amount of units won)?

Otherwise it could be a danger of blowing the rest of the money. You all agree, that negative variance could strike again.
To be a succseeful counter should make a good spread, isn,t it?Otherwise it make not much sense?

Looks like different approach might be less risky.

I appreciate that it could be a short run. But it could last quite some time, as it proven by some members, isn,t it? At least, long enough to comfortably winning 12000?

After all, it should be not so easy to blow all 12000, stopping everytime after winning 100?
To diminish exposure of ROR, just to stop when losing certain amount, because emotionally it could be difficult to take , at least for some of us?

I personally try to combine 2 approaches, counting and trying to stop when winning certain amounts of units.

However, for me counting works when not more than 3 boxes, including mine, are opened.